Posted on 01/22/2006 8:12:40 PM PST by johnmecainrino
Liberals crossing fingers for razor-thin majority
RICHMOND, B.C. — Liberals enter Monday's election left hoping for a best-case scenario that would see them narrowly avert defeat and scrape by with a small minority government.
Paul Martin told a partisan crowd in British Columbia the province - where the Liberals hope to gain five seats - will decide whether his government gets re-elected.
Party strategists have pinpointed a list of about 115 ridings they believe they could win, a total that would still leave them at least 40 seats short of a majority in the House of Commons.
What might have been a grim prospect only weeks ago is now a fingers-crossing hope for a party entering its first election in 18 years as an underdog.
"The eyes of Canada are going to be on British Columbia tomorrow night - the election is going to be decided here," Martin told a boisterous crowd of B.C. Liberals.
"We have the numbers. We can stop (Conservative Leader) Stephen Harper."
If Martin goes down Monday, his defeat will come after an energetic 11th-hour sprint across the country.
A journey that began in Newfoundland three days earlier concluded with Martin strolling hand-in-hand with his wife, Sheila, along the Pacific shoreline Sunday.
The couple will head to vote in Martin's riding of LaSalle-Emard on Monday, following a few hours' sleep and a flight scheduled to have them back in Montreal around 3 a.m.
They will join their three sons and daughter-in-law to take in the election results from a suite in their downtown hotel room.
Then it's off to a banquet hall where Martin will address Liberal troops. If he loses, the question on everyone's lips will be whether Martin will use that concession speech to announce his retirement from politics.
But the prime minister refused to speculate about his own future and spent his final day on the hustings warning what could happen to the country under a Harper-led government.
It would be the end of the Liberals' proposed national day-care program - which the Tories would replace with a $1,200 child-care subsidy.
Harper has also said he would re-open negotiations on joining the U.S. missile-defence project and back away from both the Kyoto accord to curb greenhouse gases and a multibillion-dollar treaty with aboriginals.
Harper promised to replace those Liberal commitments with his own plans, but has offered few details.
The Liberals' best hope of retaining power now depends on a last-minute stampede of NDP and Green party supporters hoping to block Harper by voting Grit.
Martin's speeches in the campaign's final days have been aimed squarely at those voters, who helped the party keep enough seats to form a minority government in 2004.
"If you lend Jack Layton your vote, you will hand Stephen Harper your country," he said. "Canadians have to spend today and tomorrow thinking about it."
Canadians could be in store for nasty surprises because the Tories have not explained what programs they would cut to fill a $23 billion gap in their platform, Martin reiterated.
Harper says he would fill that gap by slowing down increases already promised by the Liberals. Martin pointed out that his opponents' platform never spells out where those reductions would occur.
"It was simply a return to the wing-a-prayer kind of forecasting I saw when I took over from the Tories in 1993 as finance minister," he said of his opponent's platform.
"And then ... (Harper) can't tell Canadians what he's going to do about (filling that gap)? That's a lack of accountability."
He also poked fun at Harper for clamping down on his own candidates throughout the campaign. Unscripted musings by socially conservative candidates were seen as a prime reason the Tories blew an early lead in the 2004 campaign.
"When Stephen Harper will not allow his candidates to talk to the press, then ask yourself what his definition of accountability is," Martin said, with his Vancouver-area candidates standing behind him.
HERES A STUPID QUESTION
All the lefties who left here cause of Bush and said they were going to Canada...where do they go now?
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
Iraq, of course...with all of the other "freedom fighters."
There's a web site called www.electionprediction.org that predicts:
Conservatives 118 seats
Liberals 104 seats
Bloc Quebecois 56 seats
NDP 29 seats
Other 1 seat
I can't attest to the reliability of this site - but if true, the Conservatives won't do as well as expected.
opinions anyone?
With any luck, it will be a long walk to Venezuela.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
I believe the IPSOS poll has a much more optimistic prediction for the CPC.
To Cuba of course. Where else?
Castro will gladly provide them with the utopia they seek.
CPC ~ 141
Lib ~ 79
BQ ~ 57
NDP ~ 31
It is interesting to note the uniqueness of our form of democracy. In many social democracies the President or Prime Minister and in some cases both are voted by the legislature, or in most cases the majority party. In this country each states popular election determines which candidate gets the electoral votes. I like our system much better.
Conservatives 118 seats
Liberals 104 seats
Bloc Quebecois 56 seats
NDP 29 seats
Other 1 seat
Just say, for the purposes of argument, that Martin is right: The Libs take 115 seats.
A working majority amounts to 155 seats.
Who, in their right mind, would join a coalition with Martin's Liberals?
The NDP is who pulled the rug out from under the last government.
The Bloc is at war with the Libs.
They can't get from here to there with the Greens.
The Conservatives surely wouldn't opt for a "grand coalition".
How could Martin hope to continue governing?
Amen
Martin could get less seats than Harper and still be prime minister.
When there is no majority govt martin as the incumbent still has the first shot at forming a new govt.
Martin and Layton will definately have more seats combined than harper.
With Martin's ego for power he could offer jack layton a deputy prime minister job. McClellan the current deputy PM is going to lose.
Martin came to power on an obsession of power and he will not give it up.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=cf6265ef-0285-42fe-8992-0cdcf5a0add3&k=91157
Tory lead firm: poll
Harper's party ahead by 12 points, NDP poised to boost seats
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