Liberals crossing fingers for razor-thin majority (Martin predicting 115 seat minority win)

CTV ^ | January 22, 2005

[GiveEmDubya]

I think they're lowballing the Conservatives. I think they'll do better than 41 in Ontario, make some gains in the Maritimes, and I think there's an outside chance that something big will happen in Quebec tomorrow night. I'd personally put the Conservatives near at least 130.

On an aside, I'll wear all blue tomorrow in support of our northern Conservative friends!

[Heatseeker]

electionprediction.org has always lowballed the Conservative chances; probably because most of their contributors are left-leaning. Try democraticspace.com where they have the Tories at 128 and the Liberals at 94. I think that's closer to the truth.

[Heatseeker]

On an aside, I'll wear all blue tomorrow in support of our northern Conservative friends!

Great idea! I will do the same. And of course I still have my Conservative yard sign out, that I 'borrowed' the day after the last election. ;)

[faithincowboys]

If the libs win, Canuckistan should be obliterated.

[GiveEmDubya]

I wore all blue on the day when the Brits had their election last year, and the Tories ended up gaining 30-something seats. I hope for even better results this time. ;)

[goldstategop]

I'm really really praying the Liberals fall to third place. Although I don't think it will happen it would be wonderful not to see them get in front of the Bloc. Gilles Duceppe would be more of an Opposition Leader than Martin would ever be.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[goldstategop]

That's why I think the polls are off about the size of the Blue Wave. If my hunch is right, Martin's fantasies of a return to power will crash on the shoals of political reality.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[REDWOOD99]

They got Diebold in Canada? ;)

[goldstategop]

The betting in the Canadian markets is the same as Ipsos' last poll: a strong Conservative minority. That hasn't changed in the last several days. If the Liberals do pull off an upset tomorrow, a lot of investors stand to lose money on the outcome.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[TruthSetsUFree]

"Don't forget to pray for a Conservative victory in Canada tomorrow!"

Amen. I've been praying and will continue to pray.

[Heatseeker]

Nope, it's all done by paper ballots. Generally speaking there are more polling places per voters than there are in the US so it doesn't slow down the process too much.

Note election regulations in Canada are controlled at the federal level, not by the provinces.

[goldstategop]

No. Old fashioned paper ballot. You mark an X besides your choice of candidate in your riding and drop it in the ballot box. No chads to deal with. The only thing that could mar this election is vote fraud.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[Heatseeker]

Addressed to our Canadian friends who may be in ridings where strategic voting can help, if they are not opposed to doing such a thing. DemocraticSpace has put out it's final update of the Conservative Strategic Voting Guide.

[conservative in nyc]

Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Dates	MOE (+/-)
Final SES/CPAC	36.4%	30.1%	17.4%	10.6%	5.6%	Jan 20-22	3.1%
Final  Ipsos Reid/Global	38%	27%	19%	12%	4% (Other)	Jan 18-22(?)	(?)
Latest Ekos	37.1%	26.9%	19.5%	11.5%	4.6%	Jan 18-20	2.0%
Final Strategic Counsel/CTV	37%	27%	19%	11%	6%	Jan 19, 21-22	2.0%
Latest Leger	38%	29%	17%	11%	-	Jan 12-17	2.1%
Latest Decima	37%	27%	18%	11%	-	Jan 12-15	3.1%
University of B.C. Elections Market	38.8%	28.9%	17.8%	11.1%	5.9% (Other)	Jan 23 12:10AM EST	-
Actual 2004	29.6%	36.7%	15.7%	12.4%	4.3%	June 28	-
Final SES 2004	30%	34%	20%	12%	4%	June 20-24	< 4.1%
Final Ipsos Reid 2004	31%	32%	17%	12%	6%	Released June 25	UNK
Final Ekos 2004	31.8%	32.6%	19.0%	11.2%	4.9%	June 21-24	1.4%

Canada - Seat Projections	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Other	Too Close	Date/Time
Final Ipsos Reid/Global	150	64	36	58	0	-	Jan 22
University of B.C. Elections Market	130	92	30	55	1	-	Jan 23 12Mid EST
Final democraticSPACE	128	94	29	56	1	-	Jan 22
Election Prediction Project	118	99	28	58	1	4	Jan 22 4:21PM EST
At Dissolution	98	133	18	53	4	-	December 2005
Actual 2004	99	135	19	54	1	-	June 28
Ipsos Reid 2004	115-119	99-103	22-26	64-68	-	-	June 25
Election Prediction Project 2004	105	121	29	52	1	-	June 27 4:06PM

[conservative in nyc]

Update to Election Predictions Project:

Canada - Seat Projections	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Other	Too Close	Date/Time
Final Ipsos Reid/Global	150	64	36	58	0	-	Jan 22
University of B.C. Elections Market	130	92	30	55	1	-	Jan 23 12Mid EST
Final democraticSPACE	128	94	29	56	1	-	Jan 22
Election Prediction Project	118	104	29	56	1	4	Jan 22 11:06PM EST
At Dissolution	98	133	18	53	4	-	December 2005
Actual 2004	99	135	19	54	1	-	June 28
Ipsos Reid 2004	115-119	99-103	22-26	64-68	-	-	June 25
Election Prediction Project 2004	105	121	29	52	1	-	June 27 4:06PM

[conservative in nyc]

The Too Close column should be deleted.

[Para-Ord.45]

going to vote?

BRING A PEN !!!!

All they supply is a pencil. Pencils have erasers.

[goldstategop]

We safely add one point for the Conservatives and subtract two for the Liberals. So we have 38% Conservative 26% Liberal, 20% NDP, 14% BQ, 2% Others. In terms of seat count, we should have 160 Conservatives 56 Liberals 60 BQ and 32 NDP. That sounds about right for a narrow Conservative majority and the reason the Liberals are in third place is because the Bloc has more seats out in Quebec. So it becomes the Official Opposition.

(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")

[Heatseeker]

I thought you were required to use their pencils. Not so?

[Para-Ord.45]

"I thought you were required to use their pencils."

Dunno really.

I`d use their pencil,then mark an ink X inside the pencil X in case of fraud," Oops look,another vote for Gore" etc.