Posted on 10/24/2005 2:18:01 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Category Three Major Hurricane Wilma is barreling toward the Southwest Florida coastline. The storm is packing wind speeds of 125mph, moving NW at 20mph, with an enormous eye 65 miles in diameter. Landfall is anticipated shortly in Collier County between 6:00 and 7:00AM ET.
Storm surge flooding of 9 feet to 17 feet is possible along the coast near and to the south of where Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge of 5 to 8 feet is predicted for the Keys. The storm has spawned tornados throughout the Florida peninsula since yesterday evening.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Radar Still Image w/watches warnings
Melbourne Radar Still Image w/watches warnings
Key West Radar Still Image w/watches warnings
Tampa Bay Radar Still image w/watches warnings
Streaming Video:
WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Additional Resources:
Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24
Good to see you checking in here. What a night...
They all go around the same time. A storm levels the playing field, and then the trees all overgrow till the next storm comes along to thin them out. Same deal for ice storms.
Outer edge of eyewall about 30 minutes from landfall per Ed Rappaport.
Thank you, Guys and Galz, for the updates on this storm. I've been feeding your posts to interested parties over here in theater since you started the thread - seems like a long time ago, don't it?
What a monster this thing started as, but it's weaker than it was. Poor FL is going to get it in the shorts again.
I've got one troop who went back on leave - her people are in the Miami area, and I hope she saw this coming... One fella had his people flee the Keys last week. Mine are in Tampa.
We worry about y'all back there, y'know?
I'll be alright, I've been through more than my share of big storms. I'd love to go down to see how the water levels are holding up in the waterway but am afraid I'd have to walk back up a bunch of stairs if the power goes off.
I'm looking on the bright side. I plan to sleep in a little and just tell my boss that the power loss knocked out my alarm clock.
Sounds like a good plan.
Amen to that.
As long as your boss isn't a FReeper :-)
...Wilma stronger and approaching the southwest coast of Florida...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward... and along the Florida East Coast from Titusville southward... including Lake Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the Florida East Coast north of Titusville to St. Augustine.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the northeast coast of Florida from north of St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas. These warnings and watches will likely be discontinued later this morning.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands... Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 25.5 north...longitude 82.4 west or about 55 miles southwest of Naples Florida.
Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph and an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track the center will make landfall along the southwestern Florida coast in a few hours and cross the southern Florida Peninsula later today. However this is a large hurricane and strong winds will be experienced well before the arrival of the center.
Data received from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph...with higher gusts. Wilma is a strong category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change in strength is expected before landfall. Some weakening is likely as Wilma crosses the southern Florida Peninsula today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 ft above normal tide levels is possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge flooding of 5 to 9 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys and Florida Bay... as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern coast of Florida.
Wilma is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rainfall...with maximum amounts of 10 inches...across central and southern Florida...including the Florida Keys. Western Cuba may see additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through today. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible over portions of the northwest Bahamas.
Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to affect portions of the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys northward today.
Tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys today.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...25.5 N... 82.4 W. Movement toward...northeast near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 am EDT and 9 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
In spite of its very large ragged eye...Wilma has continued to intensify and based on Doppler and aircraft data...it is now a high-end Cat. 3...110-kt...hurricane. Aircraft flight level winds were as high as 135 kt earlier but Doppler radar observations indicate that these winds were likely associated with transient mesoscale features. No significant changes in intensity are likely prior to landfall. After crossing Florida...Wilma should transition into a powerful extratropical storm within a couple of days as it interacts with an intense baroclinic trough over the eastern United States.
Recon and radar fixes indicate that the motion is about 050/17. Acceleration is forecast as Wilma is becoming caught in the southwesterly flow associated with the abovementioned trough. Track guidance models are in excellent agreement for the next 24 hours or so of the forecast and diverge thereafter as the models disagree on how Wilma will interact with the higher latitude flow. No significant changes in the NHC forecast track have been made over the first 24 hours or so. The latter part of the official forecast is a little east of the previous track... over the North Atlantic.
The forecast track takes Wilma inland in a few hours. People in southern Florida should be mindful that destructive winds and large storm surges are occurring well away from the center...particularly over the southern semicircle of the hurricane.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/0900z 25.5n 82.4w 110 kt 12hr VT 24/1800z 27.9n 79.0w 85 kt 24hr VT 25/0600z 32.9n 73.1w 75 kt 36hr VT 25/1800z 39.0n 66.5w 60 kt...extratropical 48hr VT 26/0600z 44.0n 60.0w 60 kt...extratropical 72hr VT 27/0600z 47.5n 51.0w 55 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 28/0600z 48.0n 40.0w 55 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 29/0600z 48.0n 29.0w 50 kt...extratropical
What time did you last speak with your son and your brother?
Good luck and God Speed to you all as she makes landfall
Last time I talked with Matthew was yesterday afternoon early. Haven't been able to raise my brother the Sheriff. My brother the minister was on call yesterday and hasn't responded to my email yet.
Drat keep losing Hurricane city everytime I post. Lol, oh well!
Lost power for five minutes here. Am surprised it came back.
Thank you. Scary that Wilma is a Cat 3 coming ashore. Katrina analyses indicate she was Cat 3 at landfall too. Ouch.
Go back to Bedrock, Wilma!
If you lose the connection and can't get it back, good luck, stay safe, and thanks.
Naples in the outer eyewall now.
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