Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 36
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 24, 2005
...Wilma stronger and approaching the southwest coast of Florida...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward... and along the
Florida East Coast from Titusville southward... including Lake
Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to St. Augustine.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the northeast coast
of Florida from north of St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas. These warnings
and watches will likely be discontinued later this morning.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 25.5 north...longitude 82.4 west or about 55 miles
southwest of Naples Florida.
Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph and an increase in
forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track
the center will make landfall along the southwestern Florida coast
in a few hours and cross the southern Florida Peninsula later
today. However this is a large hurricane and strong winds will be
experienced well before the arrival of the center.
Data received from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph...with
higher gusts. Wilma is a strong category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change in strength is
expected before landfall. Some weakening is likely as Wilma
crosses the southern Florida Peninsula today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 9 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay... as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
coast of Florida.
Wilma is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rainfall...with
maximum amounts of 10 inches...across central and southern
Florida...including the Florida Keys. Western Cuba may see
additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through today.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible over portions of the
northwest Bahamas.
Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to affect portions of
the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys northward today.
Tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys today.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...25.5 N... 82.4 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 am EDT and 9 am EDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 36
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 24, 2005
In spite of its very large ragged eye...Wilma has continued to
intensify and based on Doppler and aircraft data...it is now a
high-end Cat. 3...110-kt...hurricane. Aircraft flight level winds
were as high as 135 kt earlier but Doppler radar observations
indicate that these winds were likely associated with transient
mesoscale features. No significant changes in intensity are likely
prior to landfall. After crossing Florida...Wilma should
transition into a powerful extratropical storm within a couple of
days as it interacts with an intense baroclinic trough over the
eastern United States.
Recon and radar fixes indicate that the motion is about 050/17.
Acceleration is forecast as Wilma is becoming caught in the
southwesterly flow associated with the abovementioned trough.
Track guidance models are in excellent agreement for the next 24
hours or so of the forecast and diverge thereafter as the models
disagree on how Wilma will interact with the higher latitude flow.
No significant changes in the NHC forecast track have been made
over the first 24 hours or so. The latter part of the official
forecast is a little east of the previous track... over the North
Atlantic.
The forecast track takes Wilma inland in a few hours. People in
southern Florida should be mindful that destructive winds and large
storm surges are occurring well away from the center...particularly
over the southern semicircle of the hurricane.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/0900z 25.5n 82.4w 110 kt
12hr VT 24/1800z 27.9n 79.0w 85 kt
24hr VT 25/0600z 32.9n 73.1w 75 kt
36hr VT 25/1800z 39.0n 66.5w 60 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 26/0600z 44.0n 60.0w 60 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 27/0600z 47.5n 51.0w 55 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 28/0600z 48.0n 40.0w 55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 29/0600z 48.0n 29.0w 50 kt...extratropical