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Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part IV
NHC - NOAA ^ | 24 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 10/24/2005 2:18:01 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Category Three Major Hurricane Wilma is barreling toward the Southwest Florida coastline. The storm is packing wind speeds of 125mph, moving NW at 20mph, with an enormous eye 65 miles in diameter. Landfall is anticipated shortly in Collier County between 6:00 and 7:00AM ET.

Storm surge flooding of 9 feet to 17 feet is possible along the coast near and to the south of where Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge of 5 to 8 feet is predicted for the Keys. The storm has spawned tornados throughout the Florida peninsula since yesterday evening.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Radar Still Image w/watches warnings
Melbourne Radar Still Image w/watches warnings
Key West Radar Still Image w/watches warnings
Tampa Bay Radar Still image w/watches warnings

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24



TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; marcoisland; tropical; weather; wilma
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To: Wormwood

Good to see you checking in here. What a night...


21 posted on 10/24/2005 2:32:20 AM PDT by NautiNurse (So. Tampa Bay)
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To: debg

They all go around the same time. A storm levels the playing field, and then the trees all overgrow till the next storm comes along to thin them out. Same deal for ice storms.


22 posted on 10/24/2005 2:33:32 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: debg

Outer edge of eyewall about 30 minutes from landfall per Ed Rappaport.


23 posted on 10/24/2005 2:34:15 AM PDT by NautiNurse (So. Tampa Bay)
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To: standingfirm; steveegg; NautiNurse; laz

Thank you, Guys and Galz, for the updates on this storm. I've been feeding your posts to interested parties over here in theater since you started the thread - seems like a long time ago, don't it?

What a monster this thing started as, but it's weaker than it was. Poor FL is going to get it in the shorts again.

I've got one troop who went back on leave - her people are in the Miami area, and I hope she saw this coming... One fella had his people flee the Keys last week. Mine are in Tampa.

We worry about y'all back there, y'know?


24 posted on 10/24/2005 2:34:50 AM PDT by Old Sarge (In a Hole in the Ground, there Lived a Fobbit...)
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To: steveegg

I'll be alright, I've been through more than my share of big storms. I'd love to go down to see how the water levels are holding up in the waterway but am afraid I'd have to walk back up a bunch of stairs if the power goes off.


25 posted on 10/24/2005 2:34:56 AM PDT by debg
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To: NautiNurse
Good to see you checking in here. What a night...

I'm looking on the bright side. I plan to sleep in a little and just tell my boss that the power loss knocked out my alarm clock.

26 posted on 10/24/2005 2:35:15 AM PDT by Wormwood (Iä! Iä! Cthulhu fhtagn!)
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To: Wormwood
I plan to sleep in a little and just tell my boss that the power loss knocked out my alarm clock.

Sounds like a good plan.

27 posted on 10/24/2005 2:36:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse (So. Tampa Bay)
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To: NautiNurse

Amen to that.


28 posted on 10/24/2005 2:36:27 AM PDT by dixie sass
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To: Wormwood

As long as your boss isn't a FReeper :-)


29 posted on 10/24/2005 2:36:50 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: steveegg
Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 36

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 24, 2005


...Wilma stronger and approaching the southwest coast of Florida...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida
Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the
Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward... and along the
Florida East Coast from Titusville southward... including Lake
Okeechobee.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West
Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the
Florida East Coast north of Titusville to St. Augustine.

 
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the northeast coast
of Florida from north of St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach.

 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio.  A Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth.  A Hurricane
Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas. These warnings
and watches will likely be discontinued later this morning.

 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern
Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...
Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 25.5 north...longitude  82.4 west or about 55 miles
southwest of Naples Florida.

Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph and an increase in
forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.  On this track
the center will make landfall along the southwestern Florida coast
in a few hours and cross the southern Florida Peninsula later
today.  However this is a large hurricane and strong winds will be
experienced well before the arrival of the center.

Data received from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph...with
higher gusts.  Wilma is a strong category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale.  No significant change in strength is
expected before landfall.  Some weakening is likely as Wilma
crosses the southern Florida Peninsula today.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  90 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230
miles.  

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  950 mb...28.05 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 ft above normal tide levels is
possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the
south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall.  Storm surge
flooding of 5 to 9 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay... as well as in Lake Okeechobee.  Storm surge
flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
coast of Florida.

 
Wilma is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rainfall...with
maximum amounts of 10 inches...across central and southern
Florida...including the Florida Keys.  Western Cuba may see
additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through today. 
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible over portions of the
northwest Bahamas.

Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to affect portions of
the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys northward today.

Tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys today.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...25.5 N... 82.4 W.  Movement
toward...northeast near 20 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...125 mph. 
Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.

 

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 am EDT and 9 am EDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Pasch

30 posted on 10/24/2005 2:36:56 AM PDT by NautiNurse (So. Tampa Bay)
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To: All
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 36

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 24, 2005


In spite of its very large ragged eye...Wilma has continued to
intensify and based on Doppler and aircraft data...it is now a
high-end Cat. 3...110-kt...hurricane.  Aircraft flight level winds
were as high as 135 kt earlier but Doppler radar observations
indicate that these winds were likely associated with transient
mesoscale features.  No significant changes in intensity are likely
prior to landfall.  After crossing Florida...Wilma should
transition into a powerful extratropical storm within a couple of
days as it interacts with an intense baroclinic trough over the
eastern United States.

Recon and radar fixes indicate that the motion is about 050/17. 
Acceleration is forecast as Wilma is becoming caught in the
southwesterly flow associated with the abovementioned trough. 
Track guidance models are in excellent agreement for the next 24
hours or so of the forecast and diverge thereafter as the models
disagree on how Wilma will interact with the higher latitude flow. 
No significant changes in the NHC forecast track have been made
over the first 24 hours or so.  The latter part of the official
forecast is a little east of the previous track... over the North
Atlantic. 

The forecast track takes Wilma inland in a few hours.  People in
southern Florida should be mindful that destructive winds and large
storm surges are occurring well away from the center...particularly
over the southern semicircle of the hurricane.

 
Forecaster Pasch

 

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      24/0900z 25.5n  82.4w   110 kt
 12hr VT     24/1800z 27.9n  79.0w    85 kt
 24hr VT     25/0600z 32.9n  73.1w    75 kt
 36hr VT     25/1800z 39.0n  66.5w    60 kt...extratropical
 48hr VT     26/0600z 44.0n  60.0w    60 kt...extratropical
 72hr VT     27/0600z 47.5n  51.0w    55 kt...extratropical
 96hr VT     28/0600z 48.0n  40.0w    55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT     29/0600z 48.0n  29.0w    50 kt...extratropical

31 posted on 10/24/2005 2:37:38 AM PDT by NautiNurse (So. Tampa Bay)
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To: dixie sass

What time did you last speak with your son and your brother?


32 posted on 10/24/2005 2:38:45 AM PDT by NautiNurse (So. Tampa Bay)
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To: NautiNurse

Good luck and God Speed to you all as she makes landfall


33 posted on 10/24/2005 2:39:26 AM PDT by DollyCali (Don't tell GOD how big your storm is -- Tell the storm how B-I-G your s God is!)
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To: NautiNurse

Last time I talked with Matthew was yesterday afternoon early. Haven't been able to raise my brother the Sheriff. My brother the minister was on call yesterday and hasn't responded to my email yet.


Drat keep losing Hurricane city everytime I post. Lol, oh well!


34 posted on 10/24/2005 2:42:33 AM PDT by dixie sass
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To: NautiNurse

Lost power for five minutes here. Am surprised it came back.


35 posted on 10/24/2005 2:44:25 AM PDT by laz (Miami, FL (Cutler Ridge))
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To: NautiNurse

36 posted on 10/24/2005 2:45:31 AM PDT by Dallas59 (“You love life, while we love death.” - Al-Qaeda / Democratic Party)
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To: DollyCali

Thank you. Scary that Wilma is a Cat 3 coming ashore. Katrina analyses indicate she was Cat 3 at landfall too. Ouch.


37 posted on 10/24/2005 2:45:31 AM PDT by NautiNurse (So. Tampa Bay)
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To: Dallas59

Go back to Bedrock, Wilma!


38 posted on 10/24/2005 2:47:26 AM PDT by laz (Miami, FL (Cutler Ridge))
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To: laz

If you lose the connection and can't get it back, good luck, stay safe, and thanks.


39 posted on 10/24/2005 2:48:08 AM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: Dallas59

Naples in the outer eyewall now.


40 posted on 10/24/2005 2:48:30 AM PDT by NautiNurse (So. Tampa Bay)
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