Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[metmom]

If she keeps going and doesn't lose momentum, maybe she'll make it all the way to Portugal. LOL

With the way this year is going....

[LikeLight]

But it's a very small storm.

I don't know where you're getting that info, but it's not right. Yes the eye is very tight and compact, but that is an indication of tremendous strength and the rest of the storm is already getting huge (hugh). The pressure drives these things and this is the lowest pressure ever in the Atlantic - even as it weakens before hitting Florida, it will be a gigantic storm.

[MindBender26]

I'm in O'Do, 1/4 mile off Parking Lot 4.

One thing we have going for us here, this is a "tiny" storm. Very high winds, but very small footprint. Like a huge tornado, not a typical hurricane.

Nothing like the one that went into panhandle a few years ago. With that one, advance rain bands were on nexrad over Columbus, OH, and trailers were still over Havana!

[metmom]

Water looks to be in the mid 80's along the storm track. Not much chance for weakening from that source.

[DollyCali]

Lord have Mercy! this seems like a good time for southern Florida folks to pack up for a northern trip to see fall foliage. Prayers and concern for all as they evacuate & make plans and of course poor gov Bush, what else can that man endure this year.

[GatorGirl]

Well, the latest interim advisory puts hurricane force winds extending only 15 miles from the eye so that is considered a small storm. Of course, she is "large" in strength but "small" in hurricane force winds. You are both correct!

But she still has plenty of time to grow. :-( I won't toss the patio furniture in the pool quite yet, but I do think I'll go out and trim some branches today--it needs it anyway!

[janetjanet998]

if all other things are equal....tropical systems peak at night and weaken during the day...they are not like cold core storms(typical thunderstorms) that peak in daytime heating....that doesn't mean that one can't bomb out during the daytime and that doesn't mean one can't weaken at night do to other factors

there are different scientific processes that create tropical or warm core clouds/storms then the cold core storms we are all use too

also the tiny tiny eye seems to be rotting around a lager center now

[proud American in Canada]

But it's a very small storm

Hopefully it will stay that way (do storms fluctuate in size very much?), and weaken, as people have said.

The gulf states have had enough this year. :(

[DollyCali]

I have quite a bit of family in the area also Dog. Mine are elderly with limited ability to evacuate

[GatorGirl]

Well, we even had Rita effect for a few days here while her eye was in the central gulf. She was a biggie, too!

[metmom]

If it were a tornado, it would be an F3. Not good.

[Fawn]

Well..earlier posters just told me it has time to get bigger......
I'm on the east coast...Delray Beach....so it looks like it could come through my back door.

[kx9088]

Wow, talk about a recycled comment. LOL!

What was Gilbert's lowest pressure? 888? I thought it was lower than that?

[LikeLight]

Strongest Hurricane on record in the Atlantic and FoxNews is FINALLY going to say something about it live on air after spending the entire morning on nothing but Saddam!

[Dog Gone]

I'd expect the intensity to weaken, but the winds to increase further from the center before landfall. I just can't envision a scenario where hurricane winds extend only 15 miles from the eye for very long.

[janetjanet998]

gilberts lowest recorded pressure was 888 mb...however we have no idea if that was the lowest pressure..The recon plane may have not been sampling data at Gilberts peak...The recon plane just happened to be in Wilma at the time it went insane..,

[Michael Goldsberry]

Oh, man! Prayers for our Florida friends.

[metmom]

It really does put it in perspective. When I see the pics of what a F3 does when it passes in a few minutes and think of howmany hours it takes for a hurricane to pass over at the same strength, it's a wonder ANYTHING is left standing. I sure wouldn't want my house beat on for hours like that. My in laws were planning to go to Sarasota for the winter within the next couple of weeks. It may be more now.
I've been reading Gilbert was an 888 on these threads. The next update from the HNC should be real interesting.

[eastforker]

Remember, Katrina was supposed to hit the upper Florida coast, no where near NO. I live in Houston and I am filling gas cans today. Any one who lives on the Gulf coast needs to be prepared and not wait untill the last minute to see if it is going to turn.

[CFC__VRWC]

I'd expect the intensity to weaken, but the winds to increase further from the center before landfall. I just can't envision a scenario where hurricane winds extend only 15 miles from the eye for very long.

Is it even going to weaken? So far this storm has done nothing but surprise everyone, from the rankest amateurs right up to the most seasoned experts. It wouldn't surprise me in the least now if it doesn't just keep strengthening right up until landfall.