Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[kingu]

This number should be used with caution.. Ahh, yes, the most conservative forecaster in the NHC. It just wouldn't be morning without the dispassionate and understated commentary.

If there is a weather hound that is asleep right now, I'd be shocked. Folks that I had no clue were weather hounds have called me this early in the morning to share the jaw dropping news.

Hopefully this storm will shred itself apart and aside from interesting surfing competitions in the tourist areas, that will be all that comes from this storm. I fear that isn't the case, though she should lose strength over the next 24 hours. Restrengthening would be unusual, but - we're dealing with a CAT5 'W' storm south of Cuba - I'm sorry, but any predictions are just educated guesses right now.

I will note that the GDFL ramp up that a lot of people discounted was actually conservative in its estimates - absolutely amazing.

Come on, Wilma, we heard you roar, please go put yourself to bed now. Everyone's had enough hurricanes for the year, and that bathtub of a gulf could use a break, not to mention Central American nations that are still recovering.

[Siouxz]

What a thing to wake up to! My sons (21 & 19) and their girlfriends, and an elderly uncle and aunt live in North Port. My mom and sister live in New Port Richy. This is going to be a very stressful weekend. Prayers for everyone in Wilma's path.

My boys just moved down to FL from PA in April, so they know nothing about surviving a hurricaine. I sure hope they're not going to be those idiots you see at the beach 6 hours before it hits, trying to catch some waves LOL.

[SamAdams76]

This is very strange. Mid-October and looking at strong Cat 5. What's amazing is that I went to bed last night when it was still a Cat 2.

There is a scenario where this storm can "phase in" with an East Coast trough and cause a disaster in the New England/Mid-Atlantic area. Already rivers and creeks are up to their banks around here and even a moderate rainstorm in the next 5-7 days will exacerbate things greatly. A strong storm fueled with tropical moisture would be devastating.

But first, the focus needs to be on Florida.

[Bahbah]

This is very difficult news to hear. Not blaming the messenger.

[dawn53]

Can you even believe it! I went to bed, it was a Cat 1, I wake up, it's a Cat 5.

A quote from one of my favorite movies:

Inconceivable!

[backhoe]

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 16 Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 19, 2005 Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a catastrophic category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

[NautiNurse]

Can you even believe it! I went to bed, it was a Cat 1, I wake up, it's a Cat 5.

No, I haven't comprehended this yet. Haven't poured the first cup of coffee either. When I saw Cat 5, I thought it was a joke.

[dawn53]

I woke up (got my coffee first, LOL), then came to the computer. My husband was on his computer and hadn't really been following the storm too closely as to category, etc., so when he said, "It's a Cat 5," I couldn't believe it. He didn't know it had been a Cat 1 just last night.

[laz]

I've been up all night monitoring this thing, and it still hasn't sunk in yet.

Did you know the eye got down to two miles wide at one point?

[mathluv]

No coffee yet, but jaw has dropped! Cat 5!?!?!?! Prayers to all who might be in its path.

[backhoe]

What a thing to wake up to! My sons (21 & 19) and their girlfriends, and an elderly uncle and aunt live in North Port. My mom and sister live in New Port Richy. This is going to be a very stressful weekend. Prayers for everyone in Wilma's path. My boys just moved down to FL from PA in April, so they know nothing about surviving a hurricaine. I sure hope they're not going to be those idiots you see at the beach 6 hours before it hits, trying to catch some waves LOL.

My best wishes to you and your boys- you may find the information here useful:

Rita Up Close and Personal

[NautiNurse]

WFLA predicts the storm will decrease to Cat 2-3 by landfall. We can only hope.

[laz]

Meanwhile, there's a wave along 55 west that could develop over the next few days. Alpha?

[NautiNurse]

there's a wave along 55 west that could develop over the next few days. Alpha?

Have my hands full with this storm. Can't think about another one right now.

[laz]

Unless she weakens, I'm afraid we're gonna have our arms full. But even a Cat 3 is gonna be bad. And add the forward speed to that, which might be as much as 20 mph.

[Peach]

Well, now I'm wondering whether we should go to Jacksonville after all.

[NautiNurse]

There will be massive evacuations due to this storm. Not a good time to visit Florida for a vacation.

[mhking]

884!? This is unbelievable. Simply unbelievable.

Hang tight - I'll pull the links here in a minute or two (rubbing sleep out of my eyes)...

[dawn53]

Hey laz,

Where did you get the info as to forward speed. That would put it here a heck of a lot sooner, than the 8 mph they're reporting now?

My husband's has to be at our EOC during a storm, so we always have to plan our preparations (i.e. putting the boards up) well in advance if a storm is going to hit. I was just talking to him and said, looks like Sat/Sunday, so if it keeps heading our way, boards will go up Friday.

[Peach]

We were going to a niece's birthday but I'll call my brother and sil this morning and we may re-evaluate.