"Sorry, dum-dums, but even I can't control the weather. Ta ta!"
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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Me neither. I am going to go back to bed. Can't do anything else, but worry.
There's also the fact that the Yucatan Channel is not that wide, so not all the water that Wilma will be pushing the next day or so will make it into the Gulf and into Florida.
Her house is solid. I am fearing most for Florida. Geeeez.
884.
Unreal.
They'll call it an after shock.
Now, where did I put the Tums?
LOL! My exact thought. I have Pepto Dismal.
I don't think there's anything going on over the next hour, so I think a catnap is in order. If I'm not back by 7:30 Eastern, use the Emergency Alert System :-)
Looks like it will do some considerable weakening before landfall on the west coast of Florida, hopefully that will occur before it goes North of the Lower Keys as well. Eye expected to pass 40 miles north of Key West, I am 17 miles up the road from Key West. Storms have a tough time maintaing that CAT 5 status for long.
Lat/Long and wind forecast:
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 82.5W 150 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W 150 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 145 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W 130 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W 70 KT
Aye, aye, Sir!
Get some rest.
I'm heading upstairs now.
*Hands you some Tums*
Don't hog them all, I might need some yet.
Just for kicks I drew a straightline path between the 22/06 and 23/06 points given in post 440. It puts Landfall on Marco Island 2 miles south of me.
Hope the forecast is different tomorrow.
Best wishes and prayers, regardless.
Stay safe, dry, and on the ground.
Thanks for keeping things going while I got some sleep...I haven't quite absorbed all the bad news yet over the past several hours.
Ok..I'm going to catch a nap now too..need strength for the Worry Brigade.
...Air Force reconnaissance plane reported 884 mb...the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin...this value should be used with caution until calibrated...
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Punta gruesa.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 17.2 north...longitude 82.5 west or about 170 miles... 270 km...south-southwest of Grand Cayman and about 365 miles... 590 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.
Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a catastrophic category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km.
An Air Force plane just measured a minimum central pressure of 884 mb...26.10 inches. This is the lowest pressure ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. However...this pressure value should be used with caution until it is fully calibrated.
Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain across Cuba through Friday. Additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through Thursday. Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...17.2 N... 82.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...175 mph. Minimum central pressure... 884 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
"Some people say I'm no good
Laying in my bed all day
But when the night time comes
I'm ready to rock
And roll my troubles away..."
-- Bad Company, "Live for the Music"
"Sorry, dum-dums, but even I can't control the weather. Ta ta!"
Category Five Hurricane Wilma
Movement toward west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...175 mph. Minimum central pressure 884 mb....the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.
Category Five Hurricane Wilma
Movement toward west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...175 mph. Minimum central pressure 884 mb....the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.
Hopefully it will weaken.
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