| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
|
Locked on 10/19/2005 9:04:23 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:
New thread: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1505673/posts |
Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
I knew it was a misunderstanding. Part of it being colored by don-o being tired of all of the nasty hurricanes we've had this year and last, the other being you're fascination and excitement about reaching the milestone of all named storms being used up. How can I 'blame' either one of you? Milestones are neat to reach and it's real easy to understand hurricane burn-out so I understand both sides of the fence.
I spoke up because sometimes it helps when a 3rd party explains what they're reading and understanding about a posters motives.
Your obsession with the weather has helped all of us since its led you to acquire knowledge you share with us. I appreciate your sharing with us.
Yep, that's the fresh one. My guess is they didn't get a good dropsonde drop, so they extrapolated from the altitude of the aircraft (item B).
While the pressure is extrapolated this time around, here's the major changes from the last eye fix of about 4 1/2 hours ago -
Holy Cow.
I'll be a huffing and a puffing doing my best to blow it onwards.
At least I didn't add the motion based on that error. It's to the northwest (318 degrees) at about 4.4 mph.
Perhaps, or maybe one of the readings were off, extrapolation was off, etc. Also just read that right now this is a very tight storm with the highest winds not extending very far out, so that may increase the margin of error. Still some art involved in interpretation of the sample data, and since I don't have a weather background I won't venture too many guesses. Time will tell, as we get more readings overnight and tomorrow.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 190502
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS 150 MPH WINDS IN WILMA...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 405 MILES...655
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 150
MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE
HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 901 MB...26.61 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 901 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
HOLY CRAP....
...Air Force plane finds 150 mph winds in Wilma... a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Punta gruesa. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands. All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Wilma. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 1 am EDT...0500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 16.9 north...longitude 82.0 west or about 175 miles... 280 km...south-southwest of Grand Cayman and about 405 miles...655 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico. Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. An Air Force plane measured maximum sustained winds of near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The hurricane could become a category five hurricane today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 155 miles...250 km. Latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was is 901 mb...26.61 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain across Cuba through Friday. Additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through Thursday. Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. Repeating the 1 am EDT position...16.9 N... 82.0 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 901 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT. Forecaster Avila
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
What does the "FL" mean?
This 162 knots is off the chart (literally).
It's important enough that it's worth the double post.
FL stands for Flight Level. Reduce the number by about 10% to get the accurate number, I think. (Not sure. Ask someone smart.)
Flight-level. Winds are stronger up there than they are at sea-level. The NHC put out a special advisory estimating sea-level winds at 150 mph based on that (I don't know the flight-level-to-sea-level conversion, but 1 knot roughly equals 1.15 mph).
I hope you don't mind that I put this in breaking considering that Wilma just exploded into a strong Category 4 hurricane.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 190506
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST
INTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT
850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE. WILMA IS
NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FIVE TODAY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS NECESSARY.
OH MY WORD! That's unbelievable.
I have a question... why does the projected path veer so far to the east, whereas if you project out the curve of the actual path, it would head north-by-northwest?
The only "good" news (at least for us) is that someone else is going to get the Cat 5 smack. Prayers up for Cuba (after all, not all of them do willingly follow Castro).
Not sure, I guess anything can happen-seems implausable. I just got done running from Rita and now this thing is heading towards Florida. I just closed on a new house located just North of Ocala FL. Hope something happens to the d@mmed thing and soon.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.