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Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )
NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: hurricane; notbreakingnews; tropical; weather; wilma
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To: nwctwx

Thanks, Ian .. didja see the Accuweather guy on FNC? He's SO certain this is going to FL and on up the coast, possibly bringing a severe rain event once again to New England .. even rather boastful, I thought. I believe he said it'll be a 4-6 hour event when it hits. Prayers for safety for all in her path .. she needs to leave some pebbles untouched .. it's enough already.


1,141 posted on 10/19/2005 7:35:54 PM PDT by STARWISE (Able Danger: DISABLED??)
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To: CFC__VRWC

ever have cobbler made in a dutch oven... that's the best. have not cooked with a dutch oven since my boy scout days


1,142 posted on 10/19/2005 7:39:55 PM PDT by markman46 (engage brain before using keyboard!!!)
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To: buickmackane

Hey, BTW, have you had a flu like cold since Rita? Tired and congested?


1,143 posted on 10/19/2005 7:42:20 PM PDT by exhaustedmomma (Calling illegal alien an undocumented immigrant is like calling a burglar an uninvited house guest)
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To: STARWISE

11 pm update is out....no change in forecast track.


1,144 posted on 10/19/2005 7:44:42 PM PDT by Libertarian444
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To: Libertarian444
Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 19, 2005

...Wilma weakens slightly to a category four hurricane...could
re-intensify on Thursday...

 
at 10 PM CDT...0300z...the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane Warning southward along the East Coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula to Punta Allen.  A Hurricane Warning is now in effect
from San Felipe to Punta Allen on the Yucatan Peninsula...including
Cozumel and the nearby islands.  A Hurricane Warning is also in
effect for Swan Island.

 

At 10 PM CDT...the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula west
of San Felipe to celestun.  A Hurricane Watch also remains in
effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of
Punta Allen to Punta gruesa.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from south of Punta Allen
to Chetumal Mexico...and for Belize from the border with Mexico
southward to Belize City.

 
At 11 PM EDT...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the provinces of la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of Youth.  A Hurricane Watch also
remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of Matanzas westward
through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of Youth.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

 
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was
located near latitude 18.1 north...longitude  84.3 west or about 
235 miles... 380 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

 
Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near  8 mph...13 km/hr...
with some wobbles of the eye.  A turn toward the northwest is
expected on Thursday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph...250 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Wilma is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are common in hurricanes of this
intensity...and are likely during the next 24 hours.  Wilma could
regain category five intensity on Thursday.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 230 miles...370 km.  NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported sustained
winds of 49 mph... 79 km/hr...with a gust to 56 mph... 90 km/hr.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  894 mb...26.40 inches.

If the center of Wilma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula...
coastal storm surge flooding of 7-10 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of the center.

Wilma is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of
10 to 15 inches across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan
Peninsula...with local amounts near 25 inches particularly in
mountainous terrain across Cuba through Friday.  Additional
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches...with local amounts up to
8 inches...are possible across the Cayman Islands...Swan
Island...and the northern portions of Honduras through Thursday.

 
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...18.1 N... 84.3 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...155 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 894 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

1,145 posted on 10/19/2005 7:45:34 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: NautiNurse
I've followed hurricanes a long, long time.

And this is the strangest bitch I've ever seen.

1,146 posted on 10/19/2005 7:53:56 PM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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To: NautiNurse

So I didn't miss much after a pizza and a 4-4 not-quite-split in cribbage (my dad and I got skunked once)?


1,147 posted on 10/19/2005 7:54:57 PM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: nwctwx

Okay, I got this question........see if you can folllow my logic here and understand the gist of my quandry.

Say a Cat 3 is barreling towards Florida and conditions are so unfavorable that it knocks it from a Cat 3 to a Cat 1 before it strikes land......And now take a very strong Cat 5 storm and it follows the same exact path as the Cat 3 in my example and faces the exact identical conditions......Would that CAT 5 then diminish to a Cat 1 as well or would it hold up better and only diminish to a Cat 3 or 2?


1,148 posted on 10/19/2005 7:55:00 PM PDT by Prolifeconservative (If there is another terrorist attack, the womb is a very unsafe place to hide.)
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To: dirtboy

Heads up, Fort Myers. Jungle Jim Cantore's headed your way.


1,149 posted on 10/19/2005 7:55:36 PM PDT by steveegg (Tagline withheld until we know whether Miers will be a younger O'Connor or Roberts' soulmate)
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To: NautiNurse; Conservababe; floriduh voter
Take it up on the thread where it was originally posted, and get off this thread with your bitter battle.

I suggest you heed this warning. This is not the time or place for your little flamewar. Thanks.

1,150 posted on 10/19/2005 7:56:09 PM PDT by Admin Moderator
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To: nwctwx

I chuckled at Neal Boortz's comment today concerning Wilma, when he said "at least if it hits Naples there's no d*mn problem evacuating the poor".


1,151 posted on 10/19/2005 7:58:48 PM PDT by Sender (Team Infidel USA)
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To: RavenATB
Hopefully, it will pass over Cuba, gain strength, and turn north to slam Cuba again.

Fantasy...?

Not funny. I have many relatives in Cuba, and they don't support Castro. One of my nephews drowned a few years ago trying to get to Florida. One of my nieces, a 16 year old, just made it a few days ago.

1,152 posted on 10/19/2005 7:59:42 PM PDT by laz (They can bus 'em to the polls, but they can't bus 'em out of the path of a Cat 5 hurricane.)
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To: buickmackane

I got two at Target. Now they are in a pack of 12 or 15 at Sam's for under $20.


1,153 posted on 10/19/2005 8:01:03 PM PDT by mathluv
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To: exhaustedmomma

Yes, the lattes are in the coffee aisle.

No, I haven't been ill since Rita, but there's something nasty going around my daughter's school. The kids keep getting nauseous and they seem to keep reinfecting each other. When I get a call from my daughter's teacher to come pick her up, there are several of her classmates either waiting to be sent home or kneeling over trash cans. Before the outbreak, she had perfect attendance, but she's missed three days so far this month. Our schools were closed for quite some time after Rita, with spoiled food cited as one of the reasons -- hmm...I wonder??


1,154 posted on 10/19/2005 8:01:54 PM PDT by buickmackane ("I went into the fortune teller/Who said 'Beware of lightning that might strike' "--Bob Dylan)
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To: steveegg

Yup. was just going to post that. Cantore's on his way probably , of course, to "Ft. Myers beach". The Cape gets the bare-mention every time, lol. Representing CAPE CORAL here, not Ft. Myers, not Naples, not Sarasota, guess I'm the only one-though I haven't checked every post. Have been here since this thread started, I am ALWAYS on FR, every day for over 4 yrs. Many prayers going out to all! (wink) Even us here in Cape Coral!! ;)


1,155 posted on 10/19/2005 8:02:19 PM PDT by Flipyaforreal (Non sembra mai arduo cio che si fa volontariamente.)
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To: dirtboy

There have been several strange storms this season, but this one is confounding most everyone.


1,156 posted on 10/19/2005 8:02:42 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: CFC__VRWC
I use a Revereware percolator that's probably older than I am on a camp stove. Makes a great cup of coffee.

I use one of these on my gas grill side burner. You just have to make enough to share with the neighbors downwind. : )


1,157 posted on 10/19/2005 8:03:49 PM PDT by DocRock (Osama said, "We love death, the U.S. loves life, that is the main difference between us.")
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To: steveegg
Heads up, Fort Myers. Jungle Jim Cantore's headed your way.

Bad news for Fort Myers.

1,158 posted on 10/19/2005 8:03:54 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: Flipyaforreal

PS: And my biggest laugh of the day came from a guy on the local radio who said, "If Whoraldo or that bald guy from the weater channel shows up here, I'm leaving town right away!: LOL!!


1,159 posted on 10/19/2005 8:06:44 PM PDT by Flipyaforreal (Non sembra mai arduo cio che si fa volontariamente.)
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To: NautiNurse
Yikes.....gusts to 190 mph!
1,160 posted on 10/19/2005 8:06:59 PM PDT by TheLion
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