Posted on 09/28/2005 2:47:53 AM PDT by Crackingham
THE Presidential election of 2008 is a long way off, but Republicans better start worrying about it now. The 2006 midterm election? Republicans are likely to hold onto the Senate and House. But 2008 is another story. In the midst of a Republican era, Democrats stand a good chance of taking the White House then. Even Senator Hillary Clinton of New York--or perhaps I should say especially Hillary Clinton--has realistic prospects of winning.
What's the problem for Republicans? There are at least five of them. The field of Republican candidates is weak. Democrats will have an easier time than Republicans in duplicating their strong 2004 voter registration and turnout drive in 2008. Democrats, despite their drift to the left and persistent shrillness, barely trail Republicans at all in voter appeal. Besides, they may sober up ideologically in 2008. And the media, unless John McCain is the Republican nominee, will be more pro-Democratic than ever.
Let's look at each of these reasons briefly. The strongest potential Republican candidates are Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. None of them is running and Cheney and Rice are downright adamant about it. I've asked Cheney about 2008 on three separate occasions. He gives absolutely no indication of changing his decision not to run. And he says his health isn't the reason. He just doesn't want to be a candidate and won't do it, he insists, even if President Bush asks him to.
Rice is just as negative on the idea of seeking the presidency. And aides to Jeb Bush say he has no desire to run in 2008, but might consider it in 2012. Besides, he looks worn out after so many crises (hurricanes, Terri Schiavo, the 2000 recount) during his two terms.
That leaves the Republican party with a lesser field of candidates: McCain, Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Virginia Senator George Allen, and a few others. All of them have distinct handicaps. McCain's is that many Republican loathe him. Giuliani is a social liberal. Allen and Romney are inexperienced at the national level. Frist has a soft and blurred image.
The second reason for Republican anxiety about 2008 is organization. Democrats, with millions of dollars from limousine liberals such as George Soros, paid for thousands of campaign workers to sign up voters and get them to the polls. They produced a much larger Democratic turnout in 2004 than in 2000. Republicans used an army of 1.5 million volunteers to increase the Republican vote by even more. It was an enormous political feat.
But in 2008, there's a reasonably good chance Democrats will able to produce another great field operation. All they'll need is another infusion of money from rich liberals. But Republicans will have a harder time. The 2004 volunteers showed up because of their strong personal commitment to President Bush. Will so many volunteers work so hard for McCain or Allen or Giuliani or whoever wins the Republican presidential nomination in 2008? I doubt it.
I agree with you, Hillary is for all intensive purposes unelectable. Even if a miracle happened and she won their nod, then asked Bayh or Vilsack to run with her, she still couldn't win. Bayh and/or Vilsack would help in the Mid-West (Iowa for sure), but it would probably push New Hampshire, Maine and Oregon into the Repub column. I think a dem ticket of Bayh/Vilsack would be very formidable. They would be very tough to beat in Ohio and Iowa, two States we probably need to keep in order to win.
She keeps saying over and over that she will not run. I believe her.
Many people I talk to fear a Hillary candidacy, while, at the same time, overlooking 2006. First things first. Let's clobber them in '06.
Just stop it! You're ruining a perfetly good "We're all gonna die" thread for everyone!
But if a sniper shoots his target when the enemy is out of range it misses the mark, alerts the target of the attack, and reveals his location.
Well this ain't nothing that another spending program can't fix. </goobermint>
The author failed to mention another point. A few conservatives such as myself may say "what the heck -- why bother contributing to Republicans", as Republicans have turned into big government borrowers and spenders.
I hope you're right, because I'm a big fan of Condi. If there was ever a woman who is well suited for the job, it's her. I figured that's why she got her current position, nailing down the resume for '08.
What Barnes and others fail to realize is that GWB is not a smooth politician/campaigner and he still got elected. Rice is light years ahead of GWB in her communication and salesmenship skills. There are other republicans like that as well.
Those that say "I'll never vote for a woman", have been underexposed to Condi.
Sen George Allen was governor of Virginia. I like his politics, but think his demeanor is slightly dufus. Not sure if it will translate well nationally without an extreme makeover. Gaggingly speaking, McCain has the best propsects thus far, of winning the presidency.
'Unless Hillary! loses to Jeanine Pirro for Senate in 2006..."
There's been some talk that she may even pull out of the Senate race because Pirro is already saying, "Why should New Yorkers elect someone who will use the office as a steppingstone?"
Will she lie to NY voters and continue to eye both offices?
Anyway, back to my original point '06 is going to be here sooner than we think and we better get out there and work.
Also, just noticed your tagline. It's a good one.
Immigration will be the Issue with the WOT in 2008. Why? Because the average American is feeling its effect. Now, y'all may think because Bush isnt doin anything about it now, that the Republicans candidates in 2008 will propose the same thing, which is nothing. Not True. It was a dead Issue in 2004 because the election was a referendum on Bush, and Bush never had to run on Immigration in 2000, when it wasn't quite so divisive yet. However in 2008, to win the Republican Primary, the candidates will have to come to the right as they always do, and the easiest and most effective issue in 2008 to gain support by coming to the right on is Immigration, because Blue Collar Workers, Intellecutal Republicans, Conservative Christians, and Fiscal Conservatives all have something at stake with Immigration.
"NOPE! Just rake a look at Gov. Blanco, and how she reacted in an emergency. Women deal with crises with their emotions."
Compare Margaret Thatcher and Mayor Nagin. Do you care to revise your comments?
You are talking apples and oranges.
McCain.
"You are talking apples and oranges."
Nice comeback. Your saying so does not make it true.
You said that you would never vote for a woman and that women make decisions based on their emotions. Your statements imply ALL women. Thatcher did not act in the way you describe, nor did Golda Meir. Ray Nagin did, and many other men have been terrible leaders.
So again, do you care to revise your remarks. I'll take it that you won't but you might try a little more substantive response.
How about JC Watts? Hopefully he will be our (OK) Governor first.
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