So Who Is Right in Debate on Role of Global Warming?

NY Times ^ | 9/24/05 | Andrew C. Revkin

[Crackingham]

With an American city swamped by one great hurricane and then by another one less than a month later, with federal forecasters ticking down the annual list of 21 names for tropical storms at a record clip, it is no surprise that debate has flared over the role of global warming.

After all, one of the clearest signals that human actions have pushed recent warming beyond natural cycles is a measured buildup of heat in the world's oceans, and oceanic heat is the fuel that powers hurricanes.

The issue has been addressed from starkly different vantage points. For example, former Vice President Al Gore has conducted a continuing speaking tour on the need to cut heat-trapping pollution, while Senator James M. Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma, has accused environmental campaigners of fomenting unfounded fears about human-driven warming.

So what is the state of the science behind the arguments over the message sent by Hurricanes Rita and Katrina?

What is clear is that an array of leading experts on oceans and climate agree that the tropical oceans have warmed in a way that is hard to attribute to anything other than overall warming of the climate from the buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse-gas emissions.

It is also clear to many climate scientists and oceanographers that warmer oceans will eventually increase the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes, but not necessarily their frequency.

In fact, two recent studies of hurricanes, by different scientists using different methods, claimed to detect a big rise in hurricane intensity around the world over the last several decades.

But the authors of both analyses acknowledged that more data would be needed to confirm a link to human-caused warming.

[reformedliberal]

Yep.

Up here at approximately 42 degrees North, we pray out loud for global warming for several months each winter.

Back in 1988, which was an extremely warm year, every *news* magazine carried long features on GW. Even back then, some people were muttering: is there any proof? Are there any sources BESIDES the media?

I think more and more people understand: it is a sun cycle. Climate goes in cycles.

But then, I no longer hang out with liberals, so my sample is skewed.

[Dark Knight]

Seems to me that if there appears to be evidence that Mars is warming, and Earth is warming and other planets are warming, then the cause is .... maybe the Sun.<<

I read in another thread that the sun has gotten measurably hotter on the order of .07% since the advent of accurate measurements. If that trend was over 100 years long, it would be responsible for most of global warming.

You need to be given a grant if you deduced that!

DK

[Fruitbat]

After all, one of the clearest signals that human actions have pushed recent warming beyond natural cycles is a measured buildup of heat in the world's oceans, and oceanic heat is the fuel that powers hurricanes.

Nothin' like layin' out an opinion as if it were fact.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

"All the planets, including Pluto, are getting warmer. Even he had to admit that SUVs were not causing that."

Excellent! I could use a little extension on my Zone 4 gardening season, and now I feel confident in replacing our dying truck with the SUV we've always wanted. ;)

Thanks, EnviroWackos! You rock! (Not.)

[Dark Knight]

When we have a cold-snap, you do not hear about warming.<<

IIRC Al Gore gave a global warming speech on the coldest day in NYC. We must remember him, in all his idiocy.

DK

[sergeantdave]

The local university just got umpteen millions to start up a global warming chair. I asked if it would be in the School of Junk Science next to the Phrenology Department. Needless to say, the con-men weren't amused and could only blubber.

[S.O.L.]

The start of Global Warming has been incorrectly attibuted to Nixon. Actually all Republican presidents cause Global Warming so Global Warming really started with President Lincoln.

So, since there are no accurate records of hurricanes before 1860 and there are plenty of recorded ones since then, the dramatic increase in hurricanes has thus been proven to due to Global Warming which is of course due to President Bush.

[yoe]

The sun is burning hotter than usual, offering a possible explanation for global warming that needs to be weighed when proceeding with expensive efforts to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, Swiss and German scientists say.

"The sun has been at its strongest over the past 60 years and may now be affecting global temperatures," said Sami Solanki, the director of the renowned Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Gottingen, Germany, who led the research.

Actually I have it on good anonymous authority that George Soros is funding heat machines off the tip of South Africa where these storms start and that Cindy Sheehan’s vitriol is bringing ‘em in to the already summer warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.

Global Warming is a money maker for the sky-is-falling publish of perish scientists around the world – it is somewhat dangerous to mention a lack of belief in global warming in many circles – it could mean your job……..follow the money!

[pierrem15]

"An array of leading experts"?

typedef bravo_sierra Expert;

Experts experts[10];

An array of 'experts'

[doug from upland]

I trust you have seen what has been going on with SUV-hater Arianna Huffington. CLICK AND JOIN IN THE MOCKING OF HYPOCRITE ARIANNA

[Jeff Chandler]

The image presented by the left of Christians as joyless, stern faced, condescending constipates preaching doom and damnation to "sinful" mankind is exactly what they themselves have become.

[WOSG]

That statement is utter nonsense.

Digging deep on this topic thanks to Rita, I found out that we have had periods of active hurricane seasons and less active hurricane seasons .. the 1940s and 1950s were active 1970s and 1980s less active. We've recently (since 1995) flipped into a more active mode.

This is due to ocean current configurations, akin to el nino type of macro climate configurations. Warming may impact but
that's just scratching the surface of what makes the seasons' active.


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/hurricanes.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/hurricanes/hurricanes04.gif

"As can be seen in the graph to the right, Atlantic hurricane activity appears to have phases. Since around 1995 the Atlantic has been more active than the long-term mean. However, within these multidecadal phases, certain years will be influenced by factors such as El Niño or La Niña. Typically for the Atlantic this translates to fewer hurricanes in El Niño years and more in La Niña years."

[JasonC]

What horsefeathers. Calculate the volume of the world's oceans. Calculate the energy content needed to raise that much water 1C. Convert to watts per square meter of total globe surface times time. You will find the largest power signals alleged by the IPCC would need to operate continually for a thousand years to raise ocean temperatures even 1 degree. The oceans are the system's heat sink.

[enviros_kill]

Great post-I think you hit on some very insightful psyche issues. Combine that with the substitution of a earth religion that rejects God's mandate to exercise dominion over the earth (how we progress) and you end up with public policy that hurts and kills humans.

[Always Right]

So Who Is Right in Debate on Role of Global Warming?

One thing for sure, it ain't the New York Times.

[WOSG]

There is 350 parts per million CO2 content in current atmosphere.

See this chart on the concentration of various "greenhouse" gases:

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html

On the changes to CO2:

http://www.john-daly.com/bull120.htm
"As I have pointed out frequently (Gray 1998) background carbon dioxide as measured at remote sites has been increasing in the atmosphere at an almost linear rate of about 1.4ppmv per year ever since 1972. The rate seems to be unaffected by the large increase in emissions form combustion of fossil fuels over the period (4.4Gt in 1972 to 6.4Gt in 1995, an increase of 45%)."

Before the industrial age, ie 1750, there was 280 ppm CO2, now its somewhat higher... to get to the dire consequences of 'global warming' you have to assume much larger increases in CO2 concentrations, on the order of 500 ppm or higher.

This paper shows the increased concentrations in CO2 as measured in Muana Loa in hawaii:
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap01/co2_change.html

[Reeses]

So Who Is Right in Debate on Role of Global Warming?

We're letting the envy tortured left define the wrong debate. The really important debate is what is the optimum climate to support quality of human life and what are the least expensive technologies we can develop to get it there and keep it there. For fresh water generation, food growth, lower heating costs, fewer weather deaths, less energy consumption, and in general more wealth creation it's likely we should currently be giving incentives to create greenhouse conditions.

[calrighty]

Good point. They don't teach history anymore. It might upset some losers :-)

[calrighty]

"You forgot that most of those jobs are at taxpayers' expense."

I was trying to forget......to no avail :-)

[meyer]

Who's right? I am!!

The entire leftist movement concerning man's contribution to climate change is a ruse. It is a backhanded attempt to expand socialism. No more, and no less.

The core of the earth is molten rock, fer cryin' out loud. The sun's output cyclic, and is now in a hot cycle. Any minute effect we can have by burning a few remnants of previous species is inconsequential.