Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita continues to move toward landfall along the northwest Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations continue across Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. Lake Charles LA is providing evacuations by bus for residents who have no transportation.

Traffic gridlock in the greater Houston area was compounded by gasoline stations without fuel, long lines at those stations still carrying fuel, and record breaking temperatures on the first day of autumn.

Offshore drilling platforms and rigs, as well as oil refineries, petrochemical and natural gas plants are in the path of the storm. Wave heights recorded by buoy have exceeded 38 feet. The refineries threatened by Hurricane Rita are on higher ground than those affected by flooding from Katrina. As a result, speculation abounds regarding future prices for winter heating fuel and gasoline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KPLC-TV Lake Charles KPLC Streaming
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Zechariah_8_13]

Ima was real. Ura was fictional.

[numberonepal]

Conditions at 42040 as of
(8:50 pm CDT on 09/22/2005)
0150 GMT on 09/23/2005:

Wind Direction (WDIR):	E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):	31.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST):	38.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT):	23.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD):	14 sec
Average Period (APD):	8.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR):	ESE ( 109 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):	29.70 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):	+0.01 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP):	83.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP):	83.3 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

 

Continuous Winds

TIME(CDT)	WDIR	WSPD
8:50 pm	E ( 88 deg )	31.3 kts
8:40 pm	E ( 88 deg )	33.2 kts
8:30 pm	E ( 89 deg )	33.4 kts
8:20 pm	E ( 86 deg )	29.9 kts
8:10 pm	E ( 87 deg )	29.9 kts
8:00 pm	E ( 88 deg )	31.1 kts

[commish]

That's to be within 65 nm of that spot at a certain point. Galveston is closer than Port Arthur, and the cone is tighter at that point.

The forecast landfall is not at the LA/TX line, it's halfway between Trinity Bay and the LA/TX Line.

Doh! I am getting tired and the mind is not functioning. Thanks.

[Shqipo]

Brit Hume slapped down Mort Kondracke on this issue on Special Report tonight, after Mort complained about the traffic and insisted "How would we evacuate a city if an unannounced terrorist attack occurred? We're not ready.
Brit rightly told him it was not possible to IMMEDIATELY coordinate 4 million to leave at once.

[Sender]

If there is one simple truth we can learn from this storm, it is that you can't evacuate 5 million people in 3 days. We must learn to hang tough, with snorkel in one hand and 12-gauge in the other, and damn the Cindies.

[Spktyr]

We also have fuel tankers stationed at the rest stops on 10 and 45. Not sure about 290, but would be surprised if they weren't there.

[nascaryankee]

"Texas: Proving naysayers wrong since 1835." LOL

God Bless Texas,

From your friends in Ohio.

[fishntex]

Baron Frown is a loser

[Zacs Mom]

Works for me!!! In fact, I may try to work up a graphic for that when I'm not so tired!

[RoseofTexas]

That's what I thought when I saw the latest weather model of Rita, it's making a right hook towards Louisiana!! BOY-O-BOY!!

[Sender]

I've been to French Lick, Indiana. It's just a place to buy gas to continue on to Paoli Peaks.

[laz]

If the MSM keeps up with all this negative, Bush-bashing crap...I will give up MSM forever.

I've already given them up. They are absolutely hopeless, and will just get worse and worse. They're like a terminal cancer. Nothing will alter their course toward destruction.

[Rte66]

Ya beat me to it--no Ura.

[Zechariah_8_13]

We must learn to hang tough, with snorkel in one hand and 12-gauge in the other, and damn the Cindies.

Now that's tagline-worthy for sure!

[jpsb]

"2.5 million evacuated in 24 hours. That's amazing"

As I way often say, you are on your own, do your own thinking and plaining, do not expect uncle Sam to save you. Right now there are hundreds of thousands of people stuck on highways leading out of Houstan, out of gas, out of fuel, in strange surroundings. No ones fault, I am happy I bailed out of the great traffic ram while the bailing out was good. Much better to deal with Rita at home then on the sidw of the road.

[steveegg]

10 pm discussion up - note the 36 hour projection; Port Arthur is at 29°57' N 94°1' W -

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 22
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 22, 2005

 
flight level wind data and radar observations from the Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the concentric eyewall
cycle might be nearing completion.  There is now only a single
flight level wind maximum at a radius of about 20 N mi...associated
with the outer eyewall that the aircraft radar indicate is slowly
contracting... while the inner eyewall continues to deteriorate. 
Recent GOES infrared imagery also indicates that a complete ring of
very cold convective tops...colder than -70c... now surrounds the
eye.  The central pressure has only risen slightly to 917 mb as
measured by the most recent dropsonde.  Recent flight level and
dropsonde wind data do not support an intensity greater than about
110 kt...but given the very low pressure...the initial intensity is
adjusted only slightly downward to 120 kt.  Rita is about to pass
over another eddy of high ocean heat content.  Combining this with
the possible contraction of the outer eyewall during the next
several hours...some restrengthening is forecast in the short term. 
Gradual weakening is possible later on Friday before landfall due
to lesser ocean heat content closer to the coast...and to the
possibility of some increase in the wind shear.  The bottom line is
that the intensity will likely fluctuate during the next 36
hours...and Rita is expected to make landfall as a major
hurricane...at least category three.

Although Rita has wobbled westward during the past couple of
hours...the overall motion during the past several hours has
remained west-northwestward...about 300/9.  There are no changes to
the official track forecast...since the various dynamical models
straddle the previous advisory track.  Rita is expected to
gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward as the high
to its north slides eastward.  Rita is forecast to then essentially
stall in about three days in the area of northeastern Texas where
steering currents are forecast to become very weak.  This scenario
poses a great risk of very heavy rainfall well inland and for many
days after landfall.

 
Forecaster Knabb

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      23/0300z 26.2n  90.3w   120 kt
 12hr VT     23/1200z 27.0n  91.5w   125 kt
 24hr VT     24/0000z 28.4n  93.0w   120 kt
 36hr VT     24/1200z 29.8n  94.2w   115 kt...inland
 48hr VT     25/0000z 31.1n  94.7w    65 kt...inland
 72hr VT     26/0000z 33.0n  95.0w    35 kt...inland
 96hr VT     27/0000z 33.0n  95.0w    25 kt...inland
120hr VT     28/0000z 33.0n  95.0w    25 kt...inland

 
$$

[maeng]

Get a copy to me and I'll put it on bumper sticker!!!

[John Jamieson]

Yes, Texas governor about 1890.

[PAR35]

I heard on local radio in the Dallas area...that you couldn't go south on I-45 after the Ennis/287 split...

Perhaps - didn't see anything about that on the web site. Everything has said either Fairfield or Buffalo. I wrote earlier today that I thought they should make it contraflow to I-20.

[Dane]

2. The dreaded black wooly worm has appeared here locally. I have been watching those caterpillars since I was a kid. Sometimes they are all brown, sometimes brown with black stripes. When they are ALL BLACK, trouble's brewing. The last time I remember all-black wooly worms was in 1978, the year of the Great Blizzard.

I haven't seen any yet, but here a couple of links. The first details weather folklore predictors.

Weather Folklore

The second comes from the Old Farmers Almanac and details the reletively modern folklore of the wooly worm.

The Truth about Wooly Bears(Worms)