Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous and large Category Five Hurricane Rita is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Air Force Reconnaissance indicated the central pressure has dropped to 904mb, making Rita the fifth most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Northern Mexico through the South Louisiana coastline. Galveston TX used school buses to evacuate residents. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations are in effect along the Texas coastline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[mcshot]

Now that's hilarious and I needed a chuckle.

mc

[ReyDM]

Something else I noticed, the NHC is still reporting the motion as due West yet the vortex message seems to indicate more like a WNW heading (300). Storm has also made it to 24.5N as of 00GMT, 6 hours earlier than the 5PM advisory predicted it would.

Me thinks Lake Charles/SW Louisiana not out of the woods yet ...

[Interesting Times]

668
WTNT63 KNHC 212351
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED... WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

[GRRRRR]

ATTENTION ALL

My coworker and I are NOT flying into AUSTIN, TX on THursday...duh, cuz of the weather.

There are CURRENTLY TWO HOTEL ROOMS reserved in Round Rock, TX that are going to get cancelled on THURSDAY AM...

This means they are going to be available to people moving out of the immediate coastal region.

Contact the Marriott, La Frontera Boulevard...

# 2600 La Frontera Blvd
# Round Rock, Texas 78681 USA
# Phone: 1-512-733-6767
# Fax: 1-512-733-6868
# Sales: 1-512-634-4613 ext. 4058
# Toll-Free: 1-800-865-0546

http://marriott.com/property/propertypage/AUSNO

[GummyIII]

Amen!

[Kozak]

Note a low but real probability that Rita illegally enters Mexico.

The post I responded to stated Katrina hit the US as a cat 5, false. That Rita would make landfall as a cat 5 in the US, possible, but not a fact.

Getting hysterical about "something going on" doesn't help here.

[JasonC]

870 mb, a Pacific typhoon.

[Lazamataz]

The incredibly perfect eyes of these hurricanes are also quite scary to me.

[NautiNurse]

I see a great deal of passivity on the forum regarding the hurricane, a fatalism, almost a glee.

I've spent a lot more time on these threads than you have. Far and away, there have been FReepers experiencing shock, anxiety, and the whole range of grieving process. Sure, there are a few childish folks seeking attention, and those with a voyeuristic fascination for destruction of life and property. They are the exception.

[Bahbah]

Mason is beautiful.

[Txsleuth]

Yeppers, but I am in the DFW area...I thought it wouldn't be all that bad here...

but I have heard several people say this thing could even cause havoc up here...

I would have stayed glued to this site regardless, but now it becomes more personal...

[Lazamataz]

Awwwww sh*t. Your pic just loaded. Another hurricane-former's coming up right behind Rita. NautiNurse, check out this guy's link.

[Howlin]

Annular hurricanes have a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a ring of intense convection, with hardly any convection (i.e. bands) elsewhere. These types of storms are not prone to fluctuations in intensity related to the eyewall replacement cycles typically seen in intense tropical cyclones.

Statistics show that forecasters significantly underestimate the wind velocities following the time when the hurricane peaks. The errors occur because this type of hurricane maintains intensity longer than usual.

Less than 1% of Atlantic cyclones exhibit annular characteristics.

[bwteim]

bump

[OC_Steve]

Cool web cam I always thought about doing a webcam for my dog. Alas the poor fella went to meet his maker so I had to settle for the fountain cam.

http://svander.ourlinksys.com:1024

Select the Video link. It is live and will remain live until I lose power or connectivity.

[MEG33]

A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED

May God be with us.. ...

[steveegg]

Something else I noticed, the NHC is still reporting the motion as due West yet the vortex message seems to indicate more like a WNW heading (300).

Look for that to shift to WNW in the 10 pm advisory. As someone pointed out in Thread II, the NHC uses a 6-hour average.

[No Blue States]

" You can also check the date and time on my dog's web cam. If it is current it means I'm here and ok."

Could you install your cam on the roof and point it toward the gulf?

Kidding, stay Safe. ;)

[steveegg]

Hope you're on high ground and have a basement.