Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous and large Category Five Hurricane Rita is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Air Force Reconnaissance indicated the central pressure has dropped to 904mb, making Rita the fifth most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Northern Mexico through the South Louisiana coastline. Galveston TX used school buses to evacuate residents. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations are in effect along the Texas coastline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Oh, thanks for the ping to the corrected information.....feel much better now.

[raygun]

You're absolutely right, Rita could go annular. She's at about 90% MPI. If she does go annular, then its a question how long she can hold it together.

I see 91W 23N being the most dangerous emvironment for her in that regard (especially during the hours between 11P.M. 22nd to 3 A.M. 23rd). But if she arrives there after 3 A.M., she plausibly could remain annular, maintain whatever pressure/winds she has, and then intensify as she moves further NW (out of the annular hurricane kryptonite area), the sun comes up and back into a higher MPI region. As long as she can remain below 910mb and above 105KTs, she could remain annular all the way to Texas.

Otherwise it becomes a question of where she will be in her EWRC schedule as she approaches the target zone (the MRI for the target zone is 165+KTs). The question will be a landfall as Cat 4 (peak EWRC), or merely Cat 3 if at minimal EWRC, or an annular Cat 5 with winds 160+ KTs making landfall.

If she makes landfall from Freeport to Houston in annular form, she could make Katrina look like a nasty thunderstorm.

[Spktyr]

Texas Department Of Transportation web site: http://www.dot.state.tx.us/

TXDOT reports that they have suspended Galveston ferry services.

Also, per today's press release:
Ongoing or anticipated activities include:

Local disaster officials are making decisions to implement previously determined transportation plans such as one-way flow, and closing or opening of certain roads/ramps as conditions warrant.
TxDOT has dedicated three lanes, and if needed will add a fourth lane, for northbound traffic on Interstate 37 out of Corpus Christi.
The department will be closing strategic ramps on I-45 in Houston later today to facilitate the northbound flow of traffic out of Galveston.
Suspending operation of ferry service between Galveston Island and Port Bolivar effective at 9 p.m. Wednesday.
TxDOT employees are working side by side with local emergency management officials to monitor and respond to local transportation needs.
TxDOT's changeable message signs are being used to help direct traffic.
TxDOT is also making sure department employees are in the right place and have the materials needed to quickly hit the roads as soon the worst of the hurricane passes to begin clearing highways of debris to allow emergency response to damaged areas. This preparation includes stocking up on fuel, generators, pumps and emergency communication devices such as satellite phones.
Throughout the emergency, TxDOT will be updating its road conditions hotline (800-452-9292) and Web site, www.dot.state.tx.us.

Texas Road Conditions and links to trafficams: http://www.dot.state.tx.us/hcr/main.htm*


For Texas shelter information: Call 211 or 888-312-4567

[Zacs Mom]

My husband left Galveston at about 1:30PM this afternoon ~ it is now 2:00AM and he has been able to travel all of about 75 miles total so far!!

[onyx]

My God! Almost 12 hours and only 75 miles!

I'm praying he has enough gasoline.

[Zacs Mom]

He filled up in Galveston and has already had to stop and refuel once. He is bringing his 94 year old aunt up from Galveston and this is really tough on her. I'm beginning to get a bit worried.

[Brad’s Gramma]

Oh my....I agree with onyx...prayers that his gasoline holds out. How much further does he need to go??

[Brad’s Gramma]

Oh noooo....

[Tarheel]

He could have bicycled faster!

[cowdog77]

"It is mind boggling to me that two Cat-5 storms -- of which we have only seen three IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF MODERN METEOROLOGY -- have occured in such a way as to strike the US in under thirty days. Something very peculiar is going on."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
End Times ~

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Absolutely unreal.

[Tall_Texan]

Which way is he getting out? What's his destination? If it's 75 miles, I presume he's somewhere on the outskirts of Houston.

Does he need directions?

[onyx]

He has his dear 94 year old aunt with him?

Oh my God, I am praying for them.

This long horror of a ride has to be awfully hard on her.

[conservative in nyc]

Southwest Airlines is canceling all flights to and from Corpus Christi and Houston-Hobby after 12 Noon Friday. They tentatively expect to resume flights mid-Sunday morning.

http://www.southwest.com/travel_center/wx_advisory.html

Continental Airlines will make a decision regarding the operational status at Houston Bush International Airport and the rest of Texas at 2:00pm Central Time Thursday, September 22nd.

http://www.continental.com/travel/tcTodaysOperations.asp

You're going to see a lot of airplanes getting out of dodge.

[Ichneumon]

My hubby said one of his people called in, it took them five hours to get from Houston to The Woodlands...

I just spent the last five hours out in it. Here are my observations:

All freeways are jammed and bumper-to-bumper, like the very worst of rush-hour, except that it doesn't end, not even in the middle of the night, and *all* sections of freeway are that bad, including the parts that are normally still pretty clear during normal rush-hours. The only exception are lanes heading *towards* the coast, which are about as empty as they can be -- I made record time heading down towards the NASA are. It's getting *back* that was grueling.

The feeder roads are actually better than the freeways most of the time, and at times can zip along pretty quickly, up to 50mph.

Just a block or two off the freeways, the surface roads ARE CLEAR SAILING. I found this to be consistently true all over town. If you know your way around town, AVOID THE FREEWAYS and drive the surface streets. You'll make *much* better time, even taking into consideration the traffic lights and lower speed limits. Not only are the evacuees all on the freeways and not on the surface streets, but the regular city traffic isn't out as usual either, since the whole city is battening down the hatches.

Many gas stations along the freeways are running out of gas and have long lines, but again, just a few blocks off the freeways things are about as normal as they can be, with plenty of gas and no long lines. If you're on or near the freeway and looking for gas, get off the main drag and check the side streets.

Despite the grueling traffic and looooong travel times spent staring at the tail of the car in front of you for hours on end, people are in pretty good spirits. I haven't seen any incidents of impatience or anger, people are politely leaving space when someone needs to merge or change lanes, etc. If anything, things are even *more* civil than usual, despite the hassles. And at gas stations and convenience stores, people are going out of their way to be pleasant to each other, with a lot of smiles-with-head-shaking as if to say, "man, can you believe this crap?" There has almost been a party atmosphere whenever people get together in public places, like it's a vacation from ordinary life. Folks are making the best of a bad situation. God bless Texas.

[John Lenin]

Current location

[Crazieman]

That picture is really sobering.

[Ichneumon]

My God! Almost 12 hours and only 75 miles!

I made only 9.2 miles in an hour and twelve minutes, around midnight.

[Brad’s Gramma]

Bumping with many MANY prayers for Texas...

[Zacs Mom]

he is using the evaculation route that took them out 146 - they haven't reach the town of Dayton yet