Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous and large Category Five Hurricane Rita is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Air Force Reconnaissance indicated the central pressure has dropped to 904mb, making Rita the fifth most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Northern Mexico through the South Louisiana coastline. Galveston TX used school buses to evacuate residents. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations are in effect along the Texas coastline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Brad’s Gramma]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1488737/posts?page=398#398


His last post today.

[Aggie Mama]

If it looks like Galveston/Houston, we will go to my parents' ranch in New Ulm.

[blam]

the consensus having shifted a little more to the right. The official forecast track was also shifted to the right...but not as far as the GFS/GFDL models..."

Hmmm

[TheMom]

Hang tough & duck when those tornados head your way.

[Txsleuth]

Well at least we know he's paying attention...LOL

I am going to bed....I think this is going to be a long 4 days or so....

later
sleuth

[steveegg]

Katrina only took 20 minutes to replace it's eye-wall.

Things are different for Cat 5 Storms. An EWR seldom decreases the winds and doesn't take long either.

Do you have any good news? ;-)

[Nita Nupress]

The problem is if it stalls over Austin you could get extreme, Floyd-in-NC style rainfall flooding. Inland flooding is constantly overlooked. It's much worse than inland wind damage, kills a lot more people.

Oh, man. I didn't think about that. My son lives 2 blocks from the Colorado River. Okay, now I'm starting to worry.

[Brad’s Gramma]

And WE'RE not ready to lose you either.

Hey! I know! Drive to CA. We'll all head up & surprise TC! :)

[Aggie Mama]

Where do you find all of the tracking models labeled?

[AggieMom x 3]

They are a pretty smart group at Rice. I'm sure they have a good plan of action.

[steveegg]

In the dark; the news just keeps getting worse.

[NautiNurse]

We had already noticed the tendency of the models to favor a tad to the left. Had never noticed it was an afternoon model tendency to shift to the right.

I don't believe the models are nearly as tight for landfall at this point as they were for Katrina.

[Brad’s Gramma]

Nite kiddo. Take care, OK? Be safe!

[Torie]

I don't think the weakening issue has much to do with water temps, it has to do with wind patterns. It is all way above me head. In any event, there is uncertainty there too. Right now the storm is over a warm spot on your map. It is about to go over that blue spot on your map. I have no idea if that will matter.

[NautiNurse]

Night time hurricanes are horrific.

[txhurl]

but I don't know where they're getting this from, because the NOAA clearly shows the water gets warmer & warmer along the way.

Someone tried to hand this off to me today, too! Strange conjecture going on out there.

[eastforker]

You and Tom also, will be in touch as soon as possible after the storm passes.

[STARWISE]

Your GREAT Gov. was just on Nightline ... whatta difference when grownups are in charge. BlanK-O was Landrieu-ed, Nagin was BlanK-Oed, and the poor souls of NO were fatally Nagin-ed... what despicable dumbunnies.

[AntiGuv]

The wind shear forecast is totally favorable to maintaining the intensity of Rita. It may be true that the forecast of weakening is based on atmospheric conditions rather than water temps, but the forecasters I saw talking about it said water temps. Now, the one thing I'm not clear enough is whether they are still stuck on New Orleans, because the water temps do in fact become considerably cooler off the coast of Louisiana. But, if this follows a track for Texas as predicted, the water temps become considerably warmer.

[BurbankKarl]

http://www.click2houston.com/video/4998700/detail.html

Here is the storm surge video from CH2...




***can the KPRC 2 live video link be added to the next header http://www.click2houston.com/video/5000985/detail.html