Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous and large Category Five Hurricane Rita is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Air Force Reconnaissance indicated the central pressure has dropped to 904mb, making Rita the fifth most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Northern Mexico through the South Louisiana coastline. Galveston TX used school buses to evacuate residents. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations are in effect along the Texas coastline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Txsleuth]

Thanks....have you heard from El Gato?

[AntiGuv]

I've seen several forecasters now on TV saying that it will weaken before landfall because the water is cooler up near the coast, but I don't know where they're getting this from, because the NOAA clearly shows the water gets warmer & warmer along the way.

Rita has actually been passing through the cooler parts of the Gulf so far, north of Cuba. The water gets warmer and the wind shear is minuscule. I don't get the forecast for weakening. Yes, the waters get shallower, but they get warmer! It's not the shallowness that ultimately matters. It's the total heat that the hurricane has to work with.

[ImphClinton]

Katrina only took 20 minutes to replace it's eye-wall.

Things are different for Cat 5 Storms. An EWR seldom decreases the winds and doesn't take long either.

Each update has made this storm far more dangerous. I would be surprised if it doesn't break all records. I would plan on a Strong Cat 4 as it hits shore.

[Ninian Dryhope]

My daughter is a senior at Rice. We live in Dickinson and she commutes to Rice. We'll probably be heading out to OKC on Friday night. We used to live in Bryan and I got my MBA at Texas A&M, so I know my way around that area. We will have three, my wife, daughter, and myself in a Mercury Marquis, so we could swing by and pick her up and drop her off at College Station, if she wanted to try that.

[Txsleuth]

LOL---gud un!

[Nachoman]

I have no idea what DFW homeowners do...I would love to know.

Well, I'm stocking up on batteries and gallon bottles of water to freeze. Getting cash, filling the cars, and filling a second bottle of propane. I may get some dry ice, too. I'm expecting power outages, and preparing for worst case of 3 days without power. I'm also clearing out my under stair closet as a "safe" room, because I suspect there will be lots of tornados in our area. I'm also going to try and make amends with God.

[Torie]

The near "perfect" red circle of fury:

[eastforker]

Wife and I have talked for years about what we would do. We both survived Alicia in a trailer house 22 years ago and we do know what we are facing. We now have a one story brick home in the "woods" and we know what we are facing. Plenty of food, water and ammo, I think we will be OK. No danger of flooding or storm surge.

[Sprite518]

Bingo....

[nuclady]

Well, norton, if your're not religious, don't invoke the name of God. God doesn't "play with us." This thread has nothing to do with religion, but many who post on this thread are. what is your point, other than denigrating others' point of view. Your tagline says it all, and you are entitled to your own opinion, but that was uncalled for.

[ladyjane]

so I took in a family with a pet rescue group that I work with.

Well I guess you're not all that bad after all. Good for you!

[Brad’s Gramma]

Oh Gummy...

Prayers...

[NautiNurse]

I heard landfall projection is moved up to Friday around midnight.

[Diddle E. Squat]

We don't have storm shutters in DFW, we don't need storm shutters. There is a good chance this will be the most powerful hurricane to ever strike the US, yet they are only calling for 30-40 mph sustained winds here. It won't be a hurricane by the time it gets to the farthest southern suburbs, which are 250 miles inland.

[AntiGuv]

Hurricanes have a tendency not to maintain Cat 5 status because they have a tendency to move from warmer water (the Caribbean Sea & east of the Windward Islands) to cooler waters (the Gulf of Mexico and north of the Antilles).

[PAR35]

do folk in DFW even have hurricane shutters?

No, they don't. And I don't think anyone is going to put plywood over the windows.

I'm bringing in the gas grill; secure the lawn furniture I didn't get today; secure the garbage can and recycle can (no, forget the garbage can-it's busted anyway and I need a new one from the city anyway), and look for anything that might fly through the air and bust a window. (I took the swings off the swingset). I may park one of the cars sideways in front of the garage door as a windbreak.

[TheMom]

Several of us have a bug out plan. We will decide tomorrow evening at 6:00 pm what we are going to do.

If this bad boy keeps up its strength and hits the Galveston coast at "an intense Cat 5", that means Houston proper will catch hell.

This Houston group is not quite ready to face hell.

[Petronski]

Up thread you referred to Rita as "...this puppy..."

In that picture, she looks like a full-grown bitch.

</DarkSarcasm>

[Spktyr]

Find out what the plan is.

[Sam Cree]

Looking at the wind swath chart that the NHC has posted, it appears that the diameter of hurricane force winds is about 180 miles or so...you have also to add the tropical storm force winds to get the size of GA?

My understanding is that the max winds are in the eyewall with gradual lessening as you get further out. Don't know exactly how wide the eyewall might be. An extremely impressive and dangerous storm.

I'm thinking my lucky stars that it passed by here at such low intensity.