I don't think the weakening issue has much to do with water temps, it has to do with wind patterns. It is all way above me head. In any event, there is uncertainty there too. Right now the storm is over a warm spot on your map. It is about to go over that blue spot on your map. I have no idea if that will matter.
The
wind shear forecast is totally favorable to maintaining the intensity of Rita. It may be true that the forecast of weakening is based on atmospheric conditions rather than water temps, but the forecasters I saw talking about it said water temps. Now, the one thing I'm not clear enough is whether they are still stuck on New Orleans, because the water temps do in fact become considerably cooler off the coast of Louisiana. But, if this follows a track for Texas as predicted, the water temps become considerably warmer.
PS. That is, the waters become considerably cooler off the coast of southeast Louisiana where Katrina passed through; they become warmer off the southwest coast, nearer Texas.
