Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Sprite518]

Hopefully, it will calm down.

[CedarDave]

Rio Rancho is a suburb of Albuquerque north and on the west side of the Rio Grande. Growing fast with all the usual suburban problems.

[No Blue States]

"It definitely looks as if it will pass north of the forecast point, but I can't tell a wobble from a course shift until it's well in hindsight."

Neither can I. It will be interesting to see if the NHC adjusts their track. Houston has 4.5 million? Thats more than I thought. Are people taking Rita seriously enough?

[greyfoxx39]

I live in Rio Rancho. It is a suburb of Albuquerque, population around 60,000 (I think). Most of Rio Rancho is relatively new, and we have all kinds of shopping, etc. Santa Fe is very expensive.

[CindyDawg]

That's what the meeting was about today. If and as someone posted it's a very low % the storm doesn't turn, then there looks like a plan is in place to get them out if needed.

[nwctwx]

I think NHC track will go a bit north from where it is now. Unfortunately, Galveston and Houston could be in a very difficult spot. Best case might be having the storm going north of the bay (though, this would be problematic for energy)... anything within 100 miles to the south could be very bad. I fear we will have somewhat of a repeat of what we saw in MS with the surge, even if she weakens a bit.

I think it's good that we have seen such deepening so early in the GOM. It is likely she won't be able to hold this kind of strength for longer than 24 hours. The intensification we have seen in the last 24 hours is very close to a record, if not one.

If she can ramp up to 180-190mph sustained, we could see her come in around 150mph, or higher. There is also the possibility that she weakens a bit, then goes through ERC before landfall. It's tough to say, I think a cat4 is very likely. I guessed 150mph at landfall about 48 hours ago, I don't see much reason to shift from that at this point.

[publana]

Great. I just got a call from my wife at the hospital. One of her co-workers who is evacuating wants to know if I can take care of their dog.

Take a cue from your nick. ;)

[Zechariah_8_13]

Do you have family in Boerne or were you able to find a hotel room there?

[Strategerist]

I found this Indonesian Website (why, I don't know) where you can just type in lat-longs in either minutes or decimal format and it automatically gives angle and speed.

http://www.indo.com/distance/

Key thing to keep in mind is official NHC advisories use decimal lat longs (20.5N, for example, 10 tenths in a degree) while VORTEX statements from recon are in minutes (20.5N is then 20 degrees 30 minutes North, 60 minutes in a degree.) Confusion on this point has caused infinite confusion over the years.

On that website a recon vortex is entered with a colon (20:30) and decimal is entered with a decimal (20.5).

[MikefromOhio]

anyone want to bet against it going lower?

[nwctwx]

I was wondering about the timestamp myself.

[truthandlife]

I-45 is a parking lot right now. Averaging 4-10 mph. You are hitting traffic right now so the traffic is going to be awful getting out of Houston all the way to Dallas.

You will probably have better luck if you leave around 3-4 a.m.

[paulat]

Another thread is asking us to pray because THE EYE OF THE STORM WILL BE GOING OVER THEIR TOWN AND THEY WON'T LEAVE!!!

I have reached the end of patience with these people!!

Get out! Get out now and take your pets with you!!

Do NOT put rescue personnel in peril becase you can't see what's in front of your face!!!

I don't mean to sound so harsh...but it's like the old joke about God sending help...He says He sent the helicopter and rowboat, etc....

Don't get me wrong, I am praying for EVERYBODY...but I really don't have patience with idiots.

[BurbankKarl]

who just saw that dumb lady in the BMW on CH2

[Heatseeker]

I think it'll beat Allen (899) but pop back up a bit thereafter.

[mewzilla]

FWIW, according to the book Isaac's Storm, the lowest barometric pressure recorded was 28.48 inches, though a later NOAA calculation pegged the lowest pressure at 27.49. Anyone know how to convert to milibars? The highest windspeed recorded in Galveston, before the anemometer blew away, was 100 mph. Later estimates have the wind speed even greater. I think a lot will depend on those sea walls, and what direction the storm comes in on. The one in 1900 came in at a 90 degree angle, which made it victim to two storm surges, one from the bay, then the other from the gulf.

[CindyDawg]

If the hospital is staying open you could stay there with her, instead of at your home. Volunteers are always needed.

[truthandlife]

I have family in Boerne. I tried to find a hotel room somewhere and can't find one anywhere. The closest place is about 600 miles away in El Paso. No thank you.

[AliVeritas]

You have a link? Thanks.

[Adam-ondi-Ahman]

who just saw that dumb lady in the BMW on CH2

Yeah. "They said that we can stay, so that must mean it won't be that bad." Ugh.