Ritas eye at sunset:
I think NHC track will go a bit north from where it is now. Unfortunately, Galveston and Houston could be in a very difficult spot. Best case might be having the storm going north of the bay (though, this would be problematic for energy)... anything within 100 miles to the south could be very bad. I fear we will have somewhat of a repeat of what we saw in MS with the surge, even if she weakens a bit.
I think it's good that we have seen such deepening so early in the GOM. It is likely she won't be able to hold this kind of strength for longer than 24 hours. The intensification we have seen in the last 24 hours is very close to a record, if not one.
If she can ramp up to 180-190mph sustained, we could see her come in around 150mph, or higher. There is also the possibility that she weakens a bit, then goes through ERC before landfall. It's tough to say, I think a cat4 is very likely. I guessed 150mph at landfall about 48 hours ago, I don't see much reason to shift from that at this point.
Ritas eye at sunset:
This scenario is what Cantore was really, really upset about last night- at the time he was speaking theoretically..he said if it keeps west...then takes a sharp turn north...Galveston is history and Houston is in BAD shape (that's when he mentioned 600,000 houses)