Hurricane Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 20 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[laz]

Drudge's current headline would be funny if it weren't so sad:

New Orleans mayor orders evacuation

Too bad it's on 9/20 and not on 8/27.

[sheikdetailfeather]

I was thinking..if Jeb and President Bush don't like black people, why have they not taken advantage of all the hurricanes in Florida to work together in their conspiracy here? Why did they choose to make things happen in a Democratically run state where they have less control? (Justathought.)

[rodguy911]

Just walked down to the end of the street where the rich guys live.Their freshwater pools have waves crashing in and are now saltwater.Another foot and 50 knot winds will put 6 foot waves onto their homes. The tide has stopped in front of our house so far, high tide at 11:18 Eastern but a push like this could last another hour or two.
The neighborhood dock is now reduced to boards floating down the street, it looks hind of eerie. When that wind hits you in the face at 50 knots it wakes you up real quick.

There is a trailer park up the street that looks flooded but so far no floaters yet.

[markedmannerf]

Im sure if this thing really does hit hard well be hearing again. "The Red Cross isnt helping black people." "George Bush doesnt care about black people."

[NautiNurse]

Amazing local report...stay safe!

[shield]

Further north would help...at least you'd have a house left. ;o(

[SE Mom]

Are you shuttered/boarded/sandbagged?

[Sam Cree]

Yeah, we live close - I am near Coral Reef Park, if you know where that is.

[jslade]

Fortunately, the damage was not too severe, 5 ft to the right and it would have crushed my son's bedroom roof.

Precisely the reason several years ago I had a steel roof put on my home. During last year's hurricanes this steel saved my roof from many large branches that would have pierced a conventional roof.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Stay safe rodguy! Great report.

[LikeLight]

Rod, can you clarify where you are again? I missed that. Don't need to know exactly, but are you on one of the Keys, or what? And thanks for the reports!

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 11
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 20, 2005

 
Rita has become the ninth hurricane of the 2005 season. Data from
Doppler radar from Key West...satellite and reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Rita has become a hurricane. Doppler radar peak
winds at 5 to 10 thousand feet have been oscillating between 90 and
95 knots with an isolated peak of 100 knots...and dropsondes in the
eyewall support an initial intensity of 75 knots. The pressure has
decreased to 982 mb...and the satellite presentation has improved
with very deep convection and well-established outflow. Both the
upper-level environment and the ocean below Rita are conducive for
additional intensification. The official forecast gradually brings
the winds up but...it does not include the distinct possibility of
rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico since it is difficult
to forecast. Rita will have plenty of time over the Gulf of Mexico
to go up and down in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles.

 
Rita is moving westward or 270 degrees at 13 knots since it is
already south of a deep layer mean ridge.  This pattern is forecast
to persist for the next 24 to 48 hours. Therafter...the high is
expected to move eastward leaving a weakness over the western Gulf
of Mexico. This forecast pattern should eventually force Rita
toward the northwest toward the Texas coast. This is one the cases
of relatively high confidence in the track forecast since most of
the reliable guidance are tightly clustered. For those who follow
just the skinny black line...it is always good to remind them that
3 to 5 day forecast errors can be large.

 
Forecaster Avila

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      20/1500z 23.8n  81.0w    75 kt
 12hr VT     21/0000z 24.0n  83.1w    80 kt
 24hr VT     21/1200z 24.3n  85.8w    85 kt
 36hr VT     22/0000z 24.5n  88.3w    90 kt
 48hr VT     22/1200z 24.5n  90.5w    95 kt
 72hr VT     23/1200z 26.0n  94.0w   100 kt
 96hr VT     24/1200z 29.5n  96.4w    65 kt...inland
120hr VT     25/1200z 33.5n  97.5w    30 kt...inlan

[rodguy911]

Thanks NN.I think it is on the other side of us now.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

We drink diet coke here like it was water - I bought a couple of two liter jugs and when we finish them I'll fill them with water and put in the freezer...........

[SE Mom]

Sustained winds now 85 mph (per FOX)

[Termite_Commander]

Up to 85 MPH now.

[silentknight]

Sustained now at 85 miles per hour with gusts to 100 miles per hour.

Key West to be hit hard.

[NautiNurse]

Pressure dropping...

Movement toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 85 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 982 mb.

[Dog Gone]

I don't see any reason why Rita shouldn't continue to intensify all the way to landfall. The SSTs are as hot as they can get, shear is minimal, and high pressure is aloft.

We could get lucky with it undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle at landfall, which is what Katrina did. But even if Rita is only a Cat 3 storm at landfall, that is a very dangerous hurricane.

I'm not taking much comfort that Corpus Christi is the projected landfall this morning. I think everyone between Brownsville and Lake Charles ought to be concerned that they'll take the direct hit. We'll have a far higher level of confidence of who is going to take the brunt of her tomorrow night or even Thursday morning.

One disturbing thing is that Rita is currently projected to arrive in the wee hours of Saturday morning. That's the worst possible time because you can't see a thing. You can't even tell that you're on the edge of being flooded or not and you can't tell how much flying debris is in the air. You're completely at the storm's mercy.

[Termite_Commander]

You beat me by 6 seconds on that post.