Tropical Storm Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[brothers4thID]

Wow.. Freudian slip there. I meant incompetent, not impotent or however I typed that.

[Gimme]

" Our levees are weakened, it wouldn't take much surge to produce catastrophic events in this area."


Not to mention any degree of high winds would probably demolish already weakened structures. Maybe not in NO proper but in the surrounding flooded areas. Not good! The best thing to happen is Rita would fizzle out in the gulf. (not likely)

[ContemptofCourt]

Mandatory evacuation of Keys as of noon today.

Just spoke to my dad in KW...doesn't sound like all too many locals are leaving, and that's in KW. I seriously doubt that many Middle/Upper Key's residents will take this storm too seriously as well.

[Oystir]

North Palm Beach here; 2nd band coming through now.

[NautiNurse]

What's the matter with the mayor?

He's trying frantically to show that he is in control. Meanwhile, I am trying to locate Nagin's quote from this morning where he made the snarky comment about Thad Allen being mayor by ordination or something like that. Was driving at the time, so I couldn't write it down. Heard it on ABC radio news.

[kingu]

Hopefully it'll stay 150 miles away. St. Bernard Parish, however, is going to have a hard time of it if this track is the real one.

I also noticed the wind field projections is growing with each run, but also, thankfully, the projected force is lowering with only blips of higher winds.

Hopefully they're all wrong, it'll go into a tailspin in the gulf and fall apart, but if I lived within 20 miles of the coast or in low areas near any body of water or river, I'd be watching the news like a hawk.

[numberonepal]

Here we go. 1515 GOES pic shows an eye forming. NHC seems to be forecasting a hurricane by this evening and a CAT 2 upon arrival just south of Key West.

[LBelle]

It's not that we don't take it seriously, it's just figuring out where to go. Miami isn't such a great place since the storm can go there too and most of us in the keys have sturdier structures than the Days Inns we'd be stuck in. This thing came up so fast that we don't exactly have a lot of desirable evacuation options. Just driving north may sound appealing but when you have homes and businesses you worry about how long you will be gone. If this thing looks stronger than a 1 or 2 all bets are off, however.

[shield]

Doesn't this depend on how fast the ridge moves east? If it moves east faster than expected (wasn't even expected to move yesterday), could be looking at a TX/LA border?

I do like that gut feelin' of yours, however...LOL

[VirginiaMom]

The mayor is "stuck on stupid". And he's mad, because he thinks Vice Admiral Thad Allen has crowned himself the Federal Mayor of New Orleans.

I kid you not, he said that about the man that's running the effort to clean up nagin's city. I think he's extremely arrogant and very ungrateful.

[OldSgt.]

Ya, second band about to the Airport here in Boca. The next couple of days is going to be wet. Hoping thats all!!!!

[numberonepal]

If this thing looks stronger than a 1 or 2 all bets are off, however.

You can just about count on CAT 2 upon arrival just south of KW.

[mcshot]

Minot can be brutal in other ways but you'll be hurricane free although you will see horizontal snow and dirt storms.
mc

[ContemptofCourt]

Hey...I agree....only scary part is that this storm sorta just popped up, and it is progged to strengthen rather quickly.

Of course, that is the price paid for living in paradise....

[Guvmint_Cheese]

From that graphic, it looks like the wife and I picked a good time to leave Houston to go on vacation. I just hope I don't come home to a house full of water :-P

[RDTF]

here:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,169751,00.html

-snip-

"If he's suggesting I'm pushing a little hard, I am. The citizens of New Orleans deserve the opportunity to see what they have left and what they can salvage," Nagin said in response to Allen's cautions.

"I'm a little surprised the admiral came out publicly on this," he added. "Maybe since I've been away a day or two, maybe he's the new crowned federal mayor of New Orleans."

-snip-

[Dog Gone]

I don't have a gut feeling for this storm yet, except that I think it's a Texas storm. And there's not a good place for it to hit along upper Texas coast because we have refineries stretching from Corpus Christi to Lake Charles.

And there's absolutely nothing that I see that would allow Rita to be less than a Cat 3 storm at landfall. I'm not overly worried yet even though I'm currently the bullseye, but if that bullseye hasn't moved much by Wednesday afternoon, I will feel free to panic.

[Gimme]

"I just hope I don't come home to a house full of water"


I hope you don't either!! Good luck!

[jpsb]

A large strong hurricane hitting just west of Galveston, would be horrible for Galveston, Island would most likely go under water, water would roll into Texas City and flood major refineries there, then a 20' surge of water would enter Galveston Bay flooding 2 of the biggest refineries in the USA, Exon (Bay Town) and Shell (Deer park), flood water would even reach Houston (50 miles inland), damage would be emeance, Houston/Galveston Area is home to over 3 million people. No levies here so water would recede after storm but tens of thousands homeless, all kinds of refineries (including two or thress of the world largest) shutdown second largest US port shutdown, Shimping industry wiped out, cost would be huge. Not as bad as Katrina, Galveston, Texas City, Bay Town and Houston would be OK, but many many billions in home repairs and cost production.

[kingu]

Maybe since I've been away a day or two, maybe he's the new crowned federal mayor of New Orleans.

Been away a day or two? I just don't get this mentality. Your city has suffered an incredible disaster, they're still looking for bodies, and he just wanders away. It is like a game or something.

On another subject, the 'eye' that people spotted on the last IR just disappeared again. Got a bit before the next sat image comes online, maybe it'll appear again.