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Posted on 09/18/2005 1:56:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Congratulations on your new SUV, though!
Yeah, the new 0Z GFS has a landfall a tad south of Galveston.
You're quite welcome.
NHC did screw up Katrina... They thought it would hit Pensacola, FL, in this stage of the game.
Yuck! Guess I better get my stuff together.
Darn.. those models have been all over the place today.
Don't like that orange one at all.
Hey, it changed and they are now all pointing at me. NO!
Yikes, looks like I'll be putting storm shutters up at first light today. Looking like a direct hit over my home on Sugarloaf Key..17 miles north of Key West. Expecting Cat 2 by time it gets here tomorrow morning. 7 years ago we had Georges which was a borderline 3 as it passed here, this looks like a repeat.
You being on the south end is not good. I am up on the far NE end of Harris county. I would sit it out but you might need to bug out if it comes in as forcast.
The maps seem to be all over the place. If it does hit Texas hope it is between Corpus Christi and Brownsville.
IIRC, a hurricane hit there a few years ago and that area is sparsely populated due to the privately owned King Ranch owning much of the property and that it is basically grazing land.
Can I come stay with you then? ;-)
I'm quite sick with a brain tumor and have no experience with hurricanes, and neither does my husband. I don't know if I should send him out to prepare tomorrow, or if we should make arrangements to get out of here. I'm not well enough for lengthy travel right now.
I'm really not sure what I should do.
Wait and see till about wednesday, we will have a better idea then.
It's from the Red Cross and talks about the evacuation routes out of Gavelston/Houston.
5 am EDT position...22.7 N... 74.3 W. Movement toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 998 mb.
the new reconaissance aircraft in the system at 07z found that the pressure had fallen to 999 mb...and first satellite images after the eclipse show that convection is now wrapping around to the northwest of the center and has taken a more banded appearance. A dropsonde in the northwest quadrant had 44 kt at the surface...with flight level winds in this quadrant of 57 kt. The northeast quadrant has not yet been sampled...and I presume that higher winds will be found there during the next hour or so. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.
The last two aircraft fixes indicate an almost due west motion...but with all the center reformations that have occurred it is difficult to ascertain a representative motion. My best judgement is 280/8. Rita has already passed the longitude of the break in the subtropical ridge...and will come under increasing pressure to have the track nudge to the left. Furthermore...now that the convection is becoming a little more symmetric...there should be less likelihood of additional northward reformations of the center. Model guidance adjusted to the current location is very tightly clustered on a path through the Florida Straits south of Key West...and I have adjusted the official forecast slightly south of the previous advisory. There has been a fairly significant shift in the guidance late in the forecast period...with the global models abruptly weakening the mid-level high over the western Gulf and allowing Rita to begin a sharper recurvature track. While I have adjusted the 120-hr point about 120 nm north of the previous advisory...I am still well to the left of most of the 120-hr guidance.
Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level low in the northwest Caribbean is shifting eastward...and as it does so the southerly shear over Rita will continue to decrease. This should allow for a faster development rate. The official forecast is very close to the SHIPS guidance.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 19/0900z 22.7n 74.3w 50 kt 12hr VT 19/1800z 23.1n 76.0w 60 kt 24hr VT 20/0600z 23.6n 78.5w 70 kt 36hr VT 20/1800z 24.0n 81.2w 80 kt 48hr VT 21/0600z 24.2n 84.0w 90 kt 72hr VT 22/0600z 24.5n 88.5w 100 kt 96hr VT 23/0600z 25.5n 92.5w 100 kt 120hr VT 24/0600z 27.5n 96.0w 95 kt
I guess it all depends on this strong high pressure system over the southeast. Here in Louisiana, the temps have been close to 100 the past few days.
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