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Posted on 09/18/2005 1:56:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Norcross saying that Rita will become a "significant hurricane" once it enters the GOM.
What do you mean the NHC doesn't WANT to believe it is tracking north...
Since when do they give us their hopes and dreams instead of the facts??? LOL
As I told my kids, we've had some pretty significant storms up into October -- we got hit with Opal in October ten years ago.
I did a good bit of research on Katrina's effect from Slidell, LA to Biloxi, MS, and found some interesting info. First off, If Katrina had hit around Galveston at the same force, power would have been knocked out all the way to, depending on the angle of its path, La Grange, College Station, Madisonville, or Lufkin.
However the storm surge damage was more surprising. Using the NHC's damage aerial photos and topo maps, it appears that virtually all the areas where homes were turned into debris piles or knocked off their foundations were at or below approx. 15' in elevation. Plenty of wind damage, but (excepting mobile homes) the average homes above that level appear to have remained in place. I have seen plenty of reports of storm surge flooding reaching 25-40', so it looks like above 15' there wasn't enough of a critical mass of water for the storm surge to exert a knock-out punch. Could easily drown you, but since the water recedes relatively quickly, it wouldn't necessarily destroy a home.
Even more interesting was the town of Pearlington, MS, which is on the Pearl River(the LA/MS border) about 5-10 miles from open water and in the direct path of the eye. None of the town gets to even 10' of elevation, yet (except for a few structures directly on the river) there wasn't that debris pile of destruction to the homes. No way to tell how high the water got, but it definitely got above 10' to the west in Slidell, and of course for more than 50 miles to the east. So the marshlands do appear to help blunt the direct force of the storm surge.
Something to consider when looking at the storm surge maps the Chronicle created showing flooding all the way into inside of I-610. Very, very doubtful that much of that area would be devastatingly wiped out. Same for much of Clear Lake City, with a good portion of the interior close to or above 20'. Am not in anyway encouraging some one down there to ride it out, but just trying to put things in a bit more perspective.
Galveston, OTOH, could get blasted. The 15' seawall could likely prove inadequate, because in MS that 15' debris rule appears to have applied to much of the backsides of the bays. So with the seawall the highest point for most of Galveston, wrap around storm surge would likely produce Gulfport-like destruction. Same for the fools who built on the Bolivar Peninsula and the west end of the island. A shame that you and I and the rest of the taxpayers are subsidizing through gov't insurance their literally building on the sand.
Okay----I am an ignorant weather watcher...but, I live in Texas and we are having just sweltering days...they are predicting record heat where I live..
Does that mean that the water in the Gulf could possibly be warmer than usual, which would feed the Hurricance to a higher strength?
Not
We've never gone all the way through the alphabet. 1995 was the record year for named storms, and that year it went to the "T" storm. If the season runs out of the alphabet, the storm names then start over using the greek alphabet letters as storm names.
You are right - he provides an excellent report without hype. Tells it straight, what needs to be done now, versus first thing in the morning for So. FL. Great discussion of the high pressure systems.
Miami-Date & Broward residents have time tomorrow morning to evaluate the situation and wait for the 8 and 11 AM updates. Folks aren't sure how far north Rita will go.
Norcross says that Rita may not be as bad as Katrina in Miami-Dade/Broward, but then again, it could be just as bad.
In any event, once it gets into the GOM, all bets are off. He's still projecting a Texas/Mexico landfall - he didn't mention the northward trends that several models have shown this evening.
Stay tuned.
Of course they do. If it happens they can crow, if it doesn't they'll as usual pretend they never did predict it, or make all kind of excuses. They finally got lucky with NOLA, after years of predicting a direct hit from various storms.
thank dog, surfs up.... maybe.
I've been listening to him for several years now and get more and more respect for him as time goes on.
The Western GOM is 1 to 2 degrees Celsius warmer than normal.
One of the local TV meteorologists here in the DFW area just said that HIS information has Rita hitting + or - 50 miles of Corpus Christi...next weekend...but then he said to stay tuned, because that could change..
I don't think anyone is going to go too far out on a limb this early...
He did say though, that if his predication is correct...that north Texas could get a hugh rain event...which we really need..but I don't want it at the expense of another hurricane.
New 0Z NOGAPS now basically goes straight down the Keys.
Where's it showing on the western end, Mexico, Brownsville, Corpus, Houston?
That could be very bad, lots of new building in Galveston County since Carla.
5 day forecast points right at us.
The way the NGP comes out it weird, it shows up out to 72 hours about 10PM, but the next 72 hours don't start coming out till Midnight and take another 1- 1 1/2 hours to do so.
I copied this from NHC site. Some may not be as familiar with Storm surge.
"The level of surge in a particular area is also determined by the slope of the continental shelf. A shallow slope off the coast will allow a greater surge to inundate coastal communities. Communities with a steeper continental shelf will not see as much surge inundation, although large breaking waves can still present major problems."
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