Tropical Storm Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[sweetliberty]

Yeah, been sorta following it on TV.

[MobileLiam]

We lost power for 11 days. When power returned, we only had power to part of the house. AL Power came 1 week later. The man said, "We were here yesterday and rang your doorbell, but, no one answered." We just laughed. They did a great job....overall.

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 4a
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 18, 2005

 
...Rita getting much better organized and strengthening as it nears
 the southeastern Bahamas...
 
a Hurricane Watch is in effect for all of the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef southward and westward to Dry Tortugas...including
Florida Bay. The watch area will likely be upgraded to a Hurricane
Warning later tonight.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwest Bahamas.
Portions of this watch area may be upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
later tonight.
A Hurricane Watch also remains in effect for the provinces of Villa
Clara...Matanzas...Ciudad de Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del
Rio...and a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Ciego de
Avila...Sancti Spiritus...and Cienfuegos.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands...and for the southeast and central Bahamas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the extreme
southeastern Florida Peninsula from Deerfield Beach southward to
Florida City and continuing westward to East Cape Sable. The watch
area will likely be upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning and
possibly a Hurricane Watch later tonight.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
 
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Rita was
reforming farther north near latitude 22.7 north... longitude 72.9
west or about 330 miles ...530 km... east-southeast of Nassau.
 
Rita is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected to occur
later tonight or on Monday. On this track...Rita will be moving
over the southeast and central Bahamas tonight and Monday.
 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance indicate maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
24 hours... and Rita could become a category one hurricane by late
Monday.
 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles... 110
km... mainly to the north of the center.
 
The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force
hurricane hunter plane was 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5
inches over much of the turks and caicos and the southern and
central Bahamas...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches.
 
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...22.7 N... 72.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.
 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 11 PM EDT.
 
Forecaster Stewart

[nicmarlo]

I'm probably wrong, but it doesn't seem that there were so many last year....or maybe not so many fairly large ones. (But I probably need to drink that stuff Cardhu mentioned...helps with memory. : )

[Strategerist]

Flight-level winds have shot up to 67 knots and an eye is forming.

Somebody is going to post the 0Z BAMD and BAMM model tracks and I'd like to say beforehand not to take them too seriously; the BAM models are somewhat useful but not great, and they're hypersensitive to init motion; and the recent NW motion may be more of a reformation than actual movement.

[Oystir]

Palm Beach Post had an interesting front page article about what would happen if we suffered a cat 4-5 storm. My house would be lost in an 18 foot storm surge and the damage near Lake Okeechobee wold be devastating.

[NautiNurse]

Yes, I saw the BAM model, and chose not to post...

[sweetliberty]

I seem to remember more last year. But they started earlier this year.

[numberonepal]

Don't be surprised when she comes off the tip of Cuber at 120 kt. You can boil chicken in that water.

[shield]

There's a much better natural gas generator available, can run a home including an A/C and kicks on within 1 minute of power loss. But in a hurricane, gas is usually cut. Self contained requires no gasoline or natural gas.

[nicmarlo]

And there's several more weeks before the hurricane season is over, I think...September being the worst month, I think I read. I bet everyone can't wait 'till this season's over.

[LA Woman3]

Thanks for the update.....
I do NOT like the BAM model!

[Lanza]

Yeah, let's hope it doesn't hit Houston, then we will have to evacuate the evacuees!

[NautiNurse]

Don't focus on the BAM model. Just watch the official track...

[dc-zoo]

BAMM is the latest model and also the worst nightmare scenario.

[SauronOfMordor]

There's a much better natural gas generator available, can run a home including an A/C and kicks on within 1 minute of power loss. But in a hurricane, gas is usually cut. Self contained requires no gasoline or natural gas.

The web site had 25 pages on generators, including this auto-start generator that uses regular liquid propane

[brytlea]

oh, we get the sentinal...I wonder how we would fare....
susie

[onyx]

Interesting link! Thanks. If 2006 is a busy season, there are hurricanes that will be named for my daughter and then yours truly. )

[TheMom]

Bourbon - Check
Grand Marnier - Check
Beer - Check
Smokes - Check
Ammo - Check
Beef Jerky - Dang, I gotta hit the store!

[NautiNurse]

BAMM is the latest model and also the worst nightmare scenario.

Fortunately, by itself, the BAM is not entirely reliable for tropical systems. The other models appear to begin too far south for this storm center. As they are updated tonight, expect all the models to shift.