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Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread, Part II (Update: Ophelia expected to remain Cat 1 storm)
NHC - NOAA ^ | 10 Spetember 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Announcements; News/Current Events; US: Georgia; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneophelia; ophelia; tropical; weather
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To: Gabz

You see the sunset tonight?

It is that sickly yellow glaze over everything.

Batten down!

We went through Bonnie and Isabel without a problem, no electric for a week but that's nothing.


61 posted on 09/10/2005 4:39:26 PM PDT by OpusatFR
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To: Amelia; backhoe
Looks like my folks dodged the bullet on this one.

Keep "shooing". Maybe it'll skirt Hatteras and head out to sea and miss us ALL.

62 posted on 09/10/2005 4:39:48 PM PDT by AnAmericanMother (. . . Ministrix of ye Chace (recess appointment), TTGC Ladies' Auxiliary . . .)
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To: AnAmericanMother
Thanks- I just located this new post.

Yomama the Weather Bird is singing her empty little head off, so maybe the storm is going away from Georgia.
( Or, she's singing to attract the rainy season, in hopes of finding a mate... I've never been too sure what it really means. )

63 posted on 09/10/2005 4:45:21 PM PDT by backhoe (-30-)
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To: Gabz; MoJo2001; NautiNurse; Nathan Zachary
My weatherman says:

Ophelia is once again a hurricane and drifting in the Atlantic ocean. The latest track has her coming ashore south of Myrtle Beach Tuesday and heading north. Right now, the latest track has the center of circulation passing to our east, but we will likely see at least a few showers and storms as a result on Tuesday and Wednesday. These systems have a mind of their own and can change in a matter of hours. Stay tuned for the latest updates.

Gabz and MoJo...y'all can come stay with me!

64 posted on 09/10/2005 4:45:53 PM PDT by GummyIII (If you have the ability, it's your responsibility." Marine Sgt. John Place, Silver Star recipient)
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To: Capt. Tom

I am not familiar with that part of NC - what towns are right at the coast there near the SC border?


65 posted on 09/10/2005 4:48:51 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: GummyIII
Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 18a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2005

 
...Hurricane hunter reports Ophelia just a little farther to the
east...

 
a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the
United States from the Savannah River South Carolina northeastward
to Cape Lookout North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch may have to be
shifted northward later tonight or Sunday.  A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...
generally within 36 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 31.8 north...longitude  75.9 west or about  255 miles
east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 235 miles
south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

 
Ophelia has been drifting toward the northeast.  Little motion is
anticipated the rest of tonight or Sunday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

 
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is  977 mb...28.85 inches.

 
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...31.8 N... 75.9 W.  Movement
toward...drifting northeastward.  Maximum sustained winds... 80 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 977 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

66 posted on 09/10/2005 4:49:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: NautiNurse

Charleston, SC here . . . . prayers for those up north.
^^^bump^^^


67 posted on 09/10/2005 4:55:33 PM PDT by RightWinger
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To: OpusatFR
It is that sickly yellow glaze over everything.

Just lovely - not.

I know you folks got hit with Isabel much worse than we did.....something about the Chesapeake Bay :)

68 posted on 09/10/2005 4:55:56 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: AnAmericanMother
Keep "shooing". Maybe it'll skirt Hatteras and head out to sea and miss us ALL.

works for me!!!!!!!!!!

69 posted on 09/10/2005 4:56:41 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: Capt. Tom

The center is further east than earlier thought as well. The more time that goes on, the more it seems Ophelia may end up barely hitting the coast.. if at all.


70 posted on 09/10/2005 4:58:34 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: GummyIII

Local weather for me is out of Norfolk. Now that we switched from cable to satellite I don't get the much closer Maryland stations anymore. Weather forecasts out of salisbury/Ocean City are far more accurate for me than from Norfolk because they are getting their wx mostly from Wallops Island which is 15 miles due east of me.........


71 posted on 09/10/2005 4:59:47 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: backhoe
I think it's a scream that you have a bird named "Yomama".

If she's singing her head off, it must mean the storm is going away . . . because it IS going away, apparently.

(unless she changes her mind again . . . the original Ophelia was kind of a ditz, that's what they get for naming the storm after her . . . she fell in a stream and got drowned, too.)

72 posted on 09/10/2005 5:17:17 PM PDT by AnAmericanMother (. . . Ministrix of ye Chace (recess appointment), TTGC Ladies' Auxiliary . . .)
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To: Gabz

Have you ever used:

www.intellicast.com

Punch in your zip code, they click "regional radar". You can scroll the radar map.


73 posted on 09/10/2005 5:20:12 PM PDT by jackbill
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To: nwctwx
"The center is further east than earlier thought as well. The more time that goes on, the more it seems Ophelia may end up barely hitting the coast.. if at all."

Very good news. I hope this holds true. We need the rain really badly. But never need the wind or the spinoff tornadoes.

(I am in central NC - near Raleigh - right up I40 from Wilmington - with lots of tall thick pines surrounding my home).

74 posted on 09/10/2005 5:38:50 PM PDT by Freedom'sWorthIt
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To: Howlin

Looks like it will be on top of my house sometime Wednesday, though.

75 posted on 09/10/2005 5:46:47 PM PDT by Freedom'sWorthIt
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To: jackbill

I've never used that one - although I have used several other similar ones. I will check it out, thanks. I was talking about TV weather, and what is considered local for me.


76 posted on 09/10/2005 5:49:45 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: Freedom'sWorthIt

It that model holds it will be well back out to sea - but directly opposite my house on Thursday.


77 posted on 09/10/2005 5:53:22 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: jackbill

I'm in Delmarva, too...hmmm...


78 posted on 09/10/2005 5:55:38 PM PDT by Freepertwo
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To: alancarp
To be fair to the NHC and all other forecasters, once a storm gets stationary -- particularly for multiple days -- all bets are off on final destinations!

Just once, before I die...the following exchange on the Weather Channel:

"So, Doctor Lyons...where do you think Ophelia is headed next?"

Well, Jenetta...damned if I know. Seriously...I don't have a frickin' clue, and neither does anyone else. And that includes that wingnut Bastardi!

79 posted on 09/10/2005 6:00:18 PM PDT by who knows what evil? (New England...the Sodom and Gomorrah of the 21st Century, and they're proud of it!)
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To: Freedom'sWorthIt

It'll be on top of mine Tuesday.


80 posted on 09/10/2005 6:03:46 PM PDT by citabria (South Brunswick Islands, NC)
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