Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread, Part II (Update: Ophelia expected to remain Cat 1 storm)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 10 Spetember 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Cooter]

My neice was in a house on Topsail when Fran hit. The storm surge swept the house away and she barely got out of it alive.

[Howlin]

That's where I am; we have cloudy skies, but that's it. No wind and a few drops of rain.

[Howlin]

Hurricane Local Statement for OPHELIA

---

000
WTUS82 KMHX 141823
HLSMHX

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104
-142200-

HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER SOUTH
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
CARTERET...WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...DARE...HYDE...
PAMLICO...ONSLOW.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER AND SOUTH...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR HIGHER
AND DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT.

OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TONIGHT. THE EYEWALL WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT LATE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AT 2 PM WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE SEAWALL IN NEW RIVER MARINA.
ONSLOW COUNTY REPORTED SOME ROADS FLOODED NEAR THE COAST. THE
PAMLICO RIVER WAS ABOUT 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. IN CLUB FOOT
CREEK...WATER LEVELS WERE ABOUT 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE WATER
LEVEL IN BEAUFORT WAS 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

STORM SURGE FROM OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FEET ALONG ONSLOW
COUNTY BEACHES TODAY. ON BOGUE BANKS EAST INCLUDING CORE
BANKS...THE SURGE WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET TODAY. ON THE NEUSE AND
PAMLICO RIVERS...THE SURGE WILL BE FROM 7 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST SURGES WILL BE IN EASTERN CRAVEN COUNTY AROUND CLUBFOOT
CREEK AND ADAMS CREEK. THE SURGE WILL BE WITHIN A FOOT OR TWO OF
THE SURGE DURING HURRICANE ISABEL IN THE RIVERS AND ALONG THE SHORE
OF THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND. IN MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY...A SURGE OF
AROUND 5 FEET IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A 5 TO 6 FOOT SURGE IS EXPECTED FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE HATTERAS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE SURGE ON THE WESTERN END OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND WILL BE UP TO 4 FEET BEGINNING TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES EAST OF
HATTERAS TOMORROW...SOUNDSIDE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED
FROM RODANTHE SOUTH.


...WIND AND SEAS IMPACTS...
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WINDS WERE 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
65 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 70 KNOTS SOUTH
OF CAPE LOOKOUT. NORTH OF HATTERAS WINDS WERE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THEY
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS WERE RUNNING 15 FEET
TO 20 FEET SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SEAS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT WERE
AROUND 10 FEET BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 FEET BY TONIGHT.

ON LAND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WERE REPORTED IN MOREHEAD
CITY...BOGUE SOUND AND WILLISTON. A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS MEASURED ATOP
THE EMERALD ISLE BRIDGE AND A GUST TO 54 MPH WAS OBSERVED ON NORTH
TOPSAIL.


...FLOODING IMPACTS...
THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN
BANDS ARE SPREADING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WERE
OCCURRING UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.


...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES TODAY AND TONIGHT.


...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. PEOPLE
ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER.


...HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...
SURF WILL BUILD TODAY AS OPHELIA APPROACHES. BREAKING WAVES OF 8
TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE PRODUCING MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH
EROSION.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 6 PM.

[brothers4thID]

"Seeded" feeling to the air, very damp and heavy, with pop up storms spinning up from the south-east here in NOVA. We could actually use the rain but no wants a repeat of Isabel or even TS Gaston.

[rhetorica]

I remember Bob! I always loved saying his name.

[FearlessFreep]

My 62 year old mother spent 12 hours in a tree when Floyd hit. The boat that came to get her out of her house capsized.

[mulligan]

Maybe this is not the time for humor but Bush is balancing the books. The President is a fair man with no agenda and sent Ophelia to target rich white people.

This will make the blacks feel better.

[brothers4thID]

Wow that is a big jump eastwards on the IR loop. Not even wobble, a jump, to the East. The cold front is really starting to push on her already?

[bonfire]

Is it headed your way or are you out of the danger zone?

[Howlin]

It is very dangerous out there.

[Cooter]

She doesn't live on the beach anymore. She and my sister are just north of Hampstead right now. Still, that's only a couple of miles from the water.

[Mr. Jeeves]

The hurricane is now up for auction on eBay.

Michael Chertoff just bought it.

He's having it FedEx-ed to Detroit to wipe out another Democrat voter stronghold. ;)

[Cooter]

My nephew lives a stone's throw from the Scott's Hill Marina. I hope he went inland.

[rhetorica]

Back from cooking! I got two large stockpots of sauce and 14 large pans of spaghetti ready to serve to the Katrina evacuees in our shelter tonight. I think we will actually have enough for two meals.

Just talked with my Mom and Dad in Wilmington--they say the wind is really bad, but the power is still on. Mom, bless her heart, is spending the day quilting (my Christmas present, no less).

I hope your kids are safe and those dogs are staying dry!

[ContemptofCourt]

Why are you even looking at IR? The radar tells the tale at this point.

[cogitator]

I know I'm a bit of a latecomer to this thread, but Ophelia will significantly alter some beach profiles.

[Peach]

It has seemed like this storm was intensifying and I'm not surprised it's a Cat 2; hope everyone is out of harm's way.

[Howlin]

It's not a CAT 2 yet.....but the governor said it could be.

[dennis1x]

It has seemed like this storm was intensifying and I'm not surprised it's a Cat 2; hope everyone is out of harm's way. its a cat 1, still 11 mph away from a cat 2 and pressure has leveled off at around 980mb for over 12 hours now. this cat 2 stuff is all made up and is not the situation, and not "expected" to be a cat 2 either. no models or forecasts predict a cat 2 storm.

[CedarDave]

Just an amazinag radar loop:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmhx.shtml