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Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread, Part II (Update: Ophelia expected to remain Cat 1 storm)
NHC - NOAA ^ | 10 Spetember 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Announcements; News/Current Events; US: Georgia; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneophelia; ophelia; tropical; weather
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To: Gabz

This isn't the last one we will visit this season either. Lets hope it takes a hard right turn to sea!


341 posted on 09/12/2005 7:45:06 PM PDT by TheLion
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To: TheLion
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 27

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 12, 2005

 
...Hurricane Warning issued as Ophelia creeps toward the coast...

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from the
South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.

 
At 11 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north
of Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including Pamlico
Sound.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Edisto
Beach South Carolina to the South Santee River.

 

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 31.8 north... longitude 77.9 west or about
140 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 210
miles south-southwest of Cape Lookout North Carolina.

 
Ophelia is moving toward the west-northwest near  3 mph.  A gradual
turn to the north is expected over the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia
has the potential to regain hurricane strength during the next 24
hours.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
...260 km from the center.  Ophelia's strongest winds are located
relatively far from the center...roughly 50 to 60 miles.  These
winds will reach the coastline well in advance of the center.

 
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft was  990 mb...29.23 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in areas of
onshore winds in association with Ophelia.  A storm surge of up to
7 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

 
Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches...
with local amounts of up to 8 inches across eastern North Carolina
and northeastern South Carolina over the next 2 days.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.8 N... 77.9 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  3 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

342 posted on 09/12/2005 7:52:17 PM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: aberaussie; Alas Babylon!; Alia; alnick; Amelia; asp1; AntiGuv; Bahbah; balrog666; blam; Blennos; ..

...Hurricane Warning issued as Ophelia creeps toward the coast...

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from the South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.

At 11 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including Pamlico Sound.

343 posted on 09/12/2005 7:54:40 PM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: NautiNurse

I wish Ophelia would make up her mind.
Actually, I wish she'd swoosh herself right back out to sea.


344 posted on 09/12/2005 7:55:39 PM PDT by MoJo2001 (www.proudpatriots.org (Support Our Troops)...)
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To: NautiNurse
"...Hurricane Warning issued as Ophelia creeps toward the coast..."

Creeping for sure!

345 posted on 09/12/2005 7:56:19 PM PDT by TheLion
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To: MoJo2001

Ophelia: the gift that keeps on giving...


346 posted on 09/12/2005 7:57:27 PM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: NautiNurse

Actually, that's Katrina.

As for Ophelia, I'd rather not receive any of her gifts thank you!

Hope all is well in your neck of the woods.


347 posted on 09/12/2005 7:58:35 PM PDT by MoJo2001 (www.proudpatriots.org (Support Our Troops)...)
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To: MoJo2001

We are dry here! All the tropical storms are skirting us, so we are unseasonably dry. I'm not complaining...


348 posted on 09/12/2005 8:00:11 PM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: NautiNurse

I'm fairly optimistic about this. For a hurricane that's camped offshore for nearly a week, it could be a lot worse. If nothing else, she's messed up the sea temperatures all along the eastern seaboard without doing much damage at all.


349 posted on 09/12/2005 8:01:30 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: NautiNurse
Thanks NautiNurse.Thought we were done with this .Our local weather here in Phila said it will not effect us but it would be windy down the shore.
350 posted on 09/12/2005 8:03:32 PM PDT by fatima
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To: NautiNurse
so we are unseasonably dry. I'm not complaining...

Great for motorcycle and bicycle riding. I'm not complaining either!

351 posted on 09/12/2005 8:14:32 PM PDT by VeniVidiVici (When a Jihadist dies, an angel gets its wings)
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To: TheLion
Lets hope it takes a hard right turn to sea!

AMEN.

352 posted on 09/12/2005 8:30:54 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: portable sewing machines cause broken ankles)
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To: Gabz
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 28

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 13, 2005

...Ophelia nearly stationary and slowly becoming better organized...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from the South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.  A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
within the next 24 hours.

 
At 5 am EDT...a Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of Cape
Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including Pamlico
Sound.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in
effect north of Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet...including the
Pamlico Sound.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from
north of Edisto Beach South Carolina to the South Santee River.

 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in
the watch area within the next 36 hr.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 32.0 north...longitude  78.0 west or about 
130 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 
150 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina.

 
Ophelia is currently nearly stationary.  A slow motion toward the
northwest and north is expected later today.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...with higher gusts.  Slow
strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours... and Ophelia
has the potential to again become a hurricane later today.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the
center.  Ophelia's strongest winds are located relatively far from
the center...roughly 50 to 60 miles.  These winds will reach the
coastline well in advance of the center.  NOAA buoy 41004 recently
reported sustained winds of 39 mph.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  990 mb...29.23 inches.  A
ship near the center recently reported a pressure of 992 mb...
29.29 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in areas of
onshore winds in association with Ophelia.  A storm surge of up to
7 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
10 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North
Carolina...with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15
inches over eastern North Carolina.

 
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...32.0 N... 78.0 W.  Movement
...Nearly stationary.  Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

 

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

353 posted on 09/13/2005 2:38:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: Dog Gone

Maybe she'll blow some fish into the Chesapeake Bay.


354 posted on 09/13/2005 4:07:07 AM PDT by fredhead ("It is a good thing war is so terrible, or we should grow too fond of it." General Robert E. Lee)
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To: NautiNurse; 2A Patriot; 2nd amendment mama; 4everontheRight; 77Jimmy; Abbeville Conservative; ...
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from the South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.


South Carolina Ping

Add me to the ping list. Remove me from the ping list.

355 posted on 09/13/2005 4:24:52 AM PDT by SC Swamp Fox (Aim small, miss small.)
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To: Constitution Day; TaxRelief; 100%FEDUP; 2ndMostConservativeBrdMember; ~Vor~; A2J; a4drvr; Adder; ...

NC *Ping*

Please FRmail Constitution Day OR TaxRelief OR Alia if you want to be added to or removed from this North Carolina ping list.
356 posted on 09/13/2005 4:32:22 AM PDT by Alia
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To: SC Swamp Fox
I just got rid...um, I was just relieved of my sister who has been relocated out of NO to Indiana. She called me yesterday and told me to pack MY stuff and come stay with her in IN!! Ha!
357 posted on 09/13/2005 5:27:46 AM PDT by 4everontheRight (Born/raised on MS beaches (SC now)...Criminals feed on the indulgence of society's understanding)
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To: 4everontheRight

Tropical Storm OPHELIA Public Advisory

000 WTNT31 KNHC 131153 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...OPHELIA WOBBLING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...32.2 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT ...NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

358 posted on 09/13/2005 5:32:55 AM PDT by SuperSonic (Pray for those involved in rescue and relief operations along the gulf coast.)
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To: NautiNurse

Some areas in low-lying areas have been asked to evac..


359 posted on 09/13/2005 5:35:50 AM PDT by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve..)
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To: SE Mom; NautiNurse; Constitution Day; TaxRelief; 100%FEDUP; 2ndMostConservativeBrdMember; ~Vor~; ...
More evacuations along NC's Outer Banks WIStv

snips:

Posted on 09/13/2005 8:37:58 AM EDT by William Creel

(Manteo, NC-AP) - Officials in Dare County have declared a state of emergency and ordered mandatory evacuations as Tropical Storm Ophelia makes its slow advance on the Carolinas coast.

The evacuation order covers all residents and visitors on Hatteras Island effective at 1:00pm.

Residents are being urged to make final preparations and leave the area during daylight hours since NC Highway 12 is prone to flooding. The road is the only vehicle access south of Oregon Inlet.

Dare County Schools close Tuesday at noon.

--End Snips

See link for more data

360 posted on 09/13/2005 5:44:15 AM PDT by Alia
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