Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
This isn't the last one we will visit this season either. Lets hope it takes a hard right turn to sea!
...Hurricane Warning issued as Ophelia creeps toward the coast...
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from the South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
At 11 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including Pamlico Sound.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Edisto Beach South Carolina to the South Santee River.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 31.8 north... longitude 77.9 west or about 140 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 210 miles south-southwest of Cape Lookout North Carolina.
Ophelia is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph. A gradual turn to the north is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia has the potential to regain hurricane strength during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles ...260 km from the center. Ophelia's strongest winds are located relatively far from the center...roughly 50 to 60 miles. These winds will reach the coastline well in advance of the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 990 mb...29.23 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 7 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches... with local amounts of up to 8 inches across eastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina over the next 2 days.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.8 N... 77.9 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
...Hurricane Warning issued as Ophelia creeps toward the coast...
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from the South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
At 11 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including Pamlico Sound.
I wish Ophelia would make up her mind.
Actually, I wish she'd swoosh herself right back out to sea.
Creeping for sure!
Ophelia: the gift that keeps on giving...
Actually, that's Katrina.
As for Ophelia, I'd rather not receive any of her gifts thank you!
Hope all is well in your neck of the woods.
We are dry here! All the tropical storms are skirting us, so we are unseasonably dry. I'm not complaining...
I'm fairly optimistic about this. For a hurricane that's camped offshore for nearly a week, it could be a lot worse. If nothing else, she's messed up the sea temperatures all along the eastern seaboard without doing much damage at all.
Great for motorcycle and bicycle riding. I'm not complaining either!
AMEN.
...Ophelia nearly stationary and slowly becoming better organized...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from the South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 5 am EDT...a Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in effect north of Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet...including the Pamlico Sound.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from north of Edisto Beach South Carolina to the South Santee River.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area within the next 36 hr.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 32.0 north...longitude 78.0 west or about 130 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 150 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina.
Ophelia is currently nearly stationary. A slow motion toward the northwest and north is expected later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours... and Ophelia has the potential to again become a hurricane later today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center. Ophelia's strongest winds are located relatively far from the center...roughly 50 to 60 miles. These winds will reach the coastline well in advance of the center. NOAA buoy 41004 recently reported sustained winds of 39 mph.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches. A ship near the center recently reported a pressure of 992 mb... 29.29 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of up to 7 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15 inches over eastern North Carolina.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...32.0 N... 78.0 W. Movement ...Nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
Maybe she'll blow some fish into the Chesapeake Bay.
000 WTNT31 KNHC 131153 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005
...OPHELIA WOBBLING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.
OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...32.2 N... 77.8 W. MOVEMENT ...NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
Some areas in low-lying areas have been asked to evac..
snips:
Posted on 09/13/2005 8:37:58 AM EDT by William Creel
(Manteo, NC-AP) - Officials in Dare County have declared a state of emergency and ordered mandatory evacuations as Tropical Storm Ophelia makes its slow advance on the Carolinas coast.
The evacuation order covers all residents and visitors on Hatteras Island effective at 1:00pm.
Residents are being urged to make final preparations and leave the area during daylight hours since NC Highway 12 is prone to flooding. The road is the only vehicle access south of Oregon Inlet.
Dare County Schools close Tuesday at noon.
--End Snips
See link for more data
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
