...Ophelia weakens to a tropical storm..
Movement toward northwest near 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds 70 mph. Minimum central pressure 989 mb.
Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Mine too. But growing up in Georgetown, SC, I heard all about it and the gray man.
...Ophelia nearly stationary... ...Outer rainbands very near the coast of the Carolinas...
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the southeast coast of the United States from north of Edisto Beach South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Watches or warnings may have to be extended northward later today.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coastal region should monitor the progress of Ophelia.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.4 north... longitude 76.8 west or about 215 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 275 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is nearly stationary and a very slow northwestward motion is expected today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center... and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb...29.09 inches.
Heavy rains associated with Ophelia could begin to affect coastal sections of northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina tonight or Tuesday.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...31.4 N... 76.8 W. Movement... nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 985 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
Stupid Question Time: Although I understand that this a going to be at most a Cat. 1 (5% chance of a Cat. 2) hurricane, I still have a cottage on Bogue Banks, second row from the beach, and am wondering if I should secure the windows. (damage from hurricanes to windows does not usually come from wind, but from objects thrown against them).
The cottage has vinyl siding, not planks, so therefore, it is impossible to nail plywood. There are expensive window protection systems from Lowe's etc. but are hugely expensive. Does any Freeper know of a practical system (I don't think taping is really an option, but Duct Tape is the universal panacea).
Regards, disraeligears
If your windows are recessed, the hot items for securing plywood are Plylox Hurricane Clips.
Here's one in the dumb question category.......could the plywood or shutters (or whatever for protecting windows) be installed from the inside, rather that on the outside?
Sure, but you wont get as much protection. The window could still break and then wind & water will get in.
They plywood keeps the window from breaking and the window keeps the water out.
In my experience, its the water that does the most damage. Once there's a path (broken window or hole in roof) the water just pours in driven by the wind.
Looking like Ophelia is going hit Beaufort/Morehead then to churn right up the inland waters of NC all the way to Virginia and beyond.
Maybe this will be the final blow to the NC fishing fleet.
We were hoping to take a long weekend in Nags Head starting Saturday...that's not looking too promising at the moment.
There are impact resistant films that can be applied to windows, if windows are not recessed to accommodate plywood. Shutters are good to excellent, and expensive. Plywood is the most economical of the window protection options.
...Ophelia weakens to a tropical storm..
Movement toward northwest near 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds 70 mph. Minimum central pressure 989 mb.
Latest data from the Air Force reconnaissance indicated a peak 700 mb flight level wind of 63 kt. Maximum surface winds are estimated to be near 60 kt...although this is probably generous given the lack of deep convection to transport momentum vertically. Thus the system is being downgraded to a tropical storm on this advisory. Ophelia has not moved much over the last couple of days...so upwelling and stirring has likely cooled the waters. Ship and drifting buoy data suggest that the sea surface temperatures may have decreased to below 26 deg c beneath the storm center. The track forecast takes Ophelia over a section of the Gulf Stream... where a modestly deep warm water mixed layer...I.E. Higher oceanic heat content...could induce re-strengthening. Therefore the official forecast shows the system re-attaining hurricane strength before nearing the coast.
After completing a small clockwise loop...the storm is moving very slowly northwestward...315/02. Because the steering currents are so ill-defined...the track forecast remains a difficult one. Some global models...namely NOGAPS and the Canadian...indicate that the broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern United States in a couple of days will lack sufficient amplitude to pick up Ophelia and accelerate it northeastward. Therefore we have the unpleasant possibility that the cyclone could linger near the southeast U.S. Through 5 days. The GFS and GFDL still move Ophelia northeastward over the Atlantic beyond 3 days...but they are somewhat slower than their previous runs. In deference to this numerical guidance...the official forecast is a bit slower than the previous one in the 3-5 day time frame.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 12/1500z 31.6n 76.8w 60 kt 12hr VT 13/0000z 31.8n 77.4w 60 kt 24hr VT 13/1200z 32.3n 77.7w 65 kt 36hr VT 14/0000z 33.0n 77.7w 65 kt 48hr VT 14/1200z 33.9n 77.4w 70 kt 72hr VT 15/1200z 35.5n 76.0w 65 kt 96hr VT 16/1200z 38.0n 73.0w 55 kt 120hr VT 17/1200z 41.0n 68.0w 45 kt...extratropical
The park service has evacuated all of Cape Lookout National Seashore between Beaufort inlet and Ocracoke inlet, about 60 miles worth of beach.
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005
LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM VERTICALLY.
THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. OPHELIA HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO UPWELLING AND STIRRING HAS LIKELY COOLED THE WATERS. SHIP AND DRIFTING BUOY DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 26 DEG C BENEATH THE STORM CENTER.
THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM... WHERE A MODESTLY DEEP WARM WATER MIXED LAYER...I.E. HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...COULD INDUCE RE-STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM RE-ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE NEARING THE COAST.
AFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...THE STORM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/02. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE SO ILL-DEFINED...THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE.
SOME GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN...INDICATE THAT THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PICK UP OPHELIA AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL STILL MOVE OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC BEYOND 3 DAYS...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 31.6N 76.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 31.8N 77.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 32.3N 77.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 33.0N 77.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 33.9N 77.4W 70 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 35.5N 76.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 38.0N 73.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 41.0N 68.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
Please excuse the screaming, I just copied it from the NOAA site...
Mandatory Evac for Ocracoke today.
"With the complete absence of public transportation expected late Monday or Tuesday, Mr. Nathan Sears, with consensus of the Ocracoke Control Group, has issued a mandatory evacuation order to take effect at 6AM on Monday September 12, 2005. This action is consistent with the Hyde County Evacuation Decision matrix and the NC Emergency Management has verified our reading of the information. Emergency Medical Services will be limited to on island operations only. Only official vehicles and vehicles with Priority Reentry stickers will be allowed to travel to Ocracoke until further notice."
http://www.fishtradewinds.com/
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