Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Get some for me - I still can't drive, so can't get to WM.....
All kidding aside, we are as prepared as we can be, and have been. We're not in a known flood zone, nor are we in any of the evac zones, not that we would be going anywhere anyway. Though if ever they do have one coming this way, I can see me having at least 1, if not 5 or 6 RVs parked here for a few days. Friends with RV campsites on the water on Chincoteague know they are welcome here and they can get here a lot quicker than to the WalMart parking lot.
I can see from your map that Hazel passed right over our home in WF. I was a wee little kid in grade school, but I remember it quite well.
I am pleased to proclaim that Hazel was before my time...
TUESDAY --- as per FNC.
Latest Recon shows she has dropped south a bit, now at 29 N 79 W.
...Ophelia appears to be drifting westward...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from the South Santee River South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the United States from north of Edisto Beach South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Watches or warnings may have to be shifted northward later tonight or on Monday.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coastal region should monitor the progress of Ophelia.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.4 north...longitude 76.2 west or about 245 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 255 miles south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia appears to be drifting westward. A slow west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. A NOAA buoy 41002 located to the northeast of Ophelia recently reported sustained winds of near 56 mph.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb...28.88 inches.
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...31.4 N... 76.2 W. Movement ...Drifting westward. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 978 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Avila
I was in pre-school; I still remember my mother coming to pick me up at school; nobody, just nobody did that back then.
And it was PITCH black outside at noon.
You’ve got that right. Isabel hit Maryland pretty hard with the storm surge that no one was quite prepared for. Some homes in Eastern Baltimore County have yet to be rebuilt. Fells Point, a tourist attraction in the city, had some significant flooding, as did Annapolis.
But mostly I remember being up all night hearing the fierce wind (just tropical storm force) and waiting for one of those really big ole trees to come crashing down on my house which thankfully didn’t happen although there were a few felled surrounding it the next morning.
That's an open tropical wave, at best... that has shown signs of weakening in regards to convection all day.
NHC hasn't mentioned it, nor has Navy.
Fran was the worst I have lived through. It looked like we had been hit by some kind of WMD. Yes, we had a landfill opened that trucks filled with debris continued to dump into for over a year after Fran. I will never forget those winds! I vowed never again to sit home when a hurricane was coming through. Fran hit Raleigh after we thought it was going to miss to the East. The only radio station we could get was an FM rock station and the DJ was totally caught off guard as he became the central location for all the reports that started to flood in regarding damage and dangers. He did a great job. The usually on-top-of-things WPTF radio station had a guy on there who was dull as a dustmop and who never understood that a major crisis had hit. Let me just say, Fran was an "adventure" that devastated our area for months and one that I do not ever want to repeat.
I remember Hazel. Evidently we weren't prepared in Durham. The school bus brought us home early and no parents. The maid was there thank goodness. I was in the first grade and it was the first sideways rain I had seen.
Please. I evacuated a knob cadet from the Citadel on Saturday (Charleston). The Citadel made the decision on Sat. afternoon because is has to be used as an emergency shelter. All cadets were to be out by 7:00pm Sat night. Is there any chance this thing may hit Charleston? If so/not when does anyone think we'll know?
Isabel was downgrading by the time she got to us, but she still went right over our house. A tornado ripped through the neighborhood. Missed us but tore a path through some trees. Neighbor across the street lost 17 trees.
I don't know what it is in the coding. But something on the NCH updates messes with my screen format. I noticed when I went to their site, something turns off the word wrap so entire paragraphs become one LOOOOOONNNGGG line.
It's happening with the one also. I wonder if it's happening to anyone else.
Or am I just special?
That's the first time I've heard of the problem. I copy/paste the formatting directly from the website. I use Netscape, with no problem. Anyone else?
I'm thinking there may be gremlins in my system. But it's only on the NHC stuff.
But don't stop posting them on my account. ;-)
I'll check from the office tomorrow. I don't think this was happening from there.
...Ophelia temporarily moving toward the west-southwest...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from the South Santee River South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the United States from north of Edisto Beach South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Watches or warnings may have to be shifted northward on Monday.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coastal region should monitor the progress of Ophelia.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.1 north...longitude 76.4 west or about 240 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 290 miles south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph. A gradual turn to the west and west-northwest is expected on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb...28.97 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.1 N... 76.4 W. Movement toward...west-southwest near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 981 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that Ophelia remains as a 65-knot hurricane. The cyclone has been moving very little since yesterday and probably has produced upwelling. No wonder the satellite presentation resembles an eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone located west-northwest of Baja California...where the ocean is cool. The upper-level environment is not expected to be hostile to the cyclone...and when Ophelia begins to move...it could encounter a little warmer ocean. Therefore...only a very small strengthening is indicated. This is consistent with both the SHIPS and the GFDL models which are only showing a very modest intensification.
It appears that the expected scenario of a strong deep layer-mean high forming north of Ophelia is beginning to materialize...as indicated by the upper-air data over the southeastern United States. Consequently...Ophelia has begun to drift west-southwest or 240 degrees at 3 knots. This west-southwest motion is expected to be short-lived since the high is expected to weaken and spread eastward. This pattern should allow the hurricane to gradually turn to the northwest and north...painfully slowly...toward the United States coast within the watch or warning area. Thereafter...the cyclone is expected to be steered northeastward...with an increase in forward speed...by the mid-latitude southwesterly flow.
Most of the guidance showed another westward shift in the last run during the early portion of the forecast and they are in much better agreement than yesterday. In fact...the consensus models which skirted the coast in the last run are now over eastern North Carolina. The official forecast is east of the consensus models but I do not want to shift westward the official forecast yet...in case the guidance shifts back to the east in the next run. The GFDL stubbornly insists on a track more to the left. By inspecting the strength of the high north of Ophelia...I would not be surprised if the official track will have to be shifted westward a little bit more for the portion before landfall.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 12/0300z 31.1n 76.4w 65 kt 12hr VT 12/1200z 31.2n 77.0w 65 kt 24hr VT 13/0000z 31.8n 77.5w 65 kt 36hr VT 13/1200z 32.2n 77.6w 65 kt 48hr VT 14/0000z 32.9n 77.7w 70 kt 72hr VT 15/0000z 35.0n 76.6w 70 kt 96hr VT 16/0000z 38.0n 73.0w 50 kt 120hr VT 17/0000z 42.0n 68.0w 40 kt
It looks like (fingers and toes crossed) everyone is safe for tonight...........
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