Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Is this storm headed your way?
But it did appear to be headed my parents' way early on (GA coast - same general area as Amelia and backhoe). I live up in the Atlanta metro (but we still got clobbered by Hurricane Opal awhile back, then by Frances and then by Cindy.)
Where is this thing going now??
Do I need to go to the store?
They haven't found a replacement for Father Bob yet? He's been retired nearly a year, hasn't he?
OTOH, he & his wife are great people, and it will be difficult to find someone to fill their shoes.
Officially you aren't out of the woods yet, but it looks like it's just going to brush the Outer Banks.
However, if you expect the niece, nephew, et.al. may come stay a day or so, you might want to go to the store. ;-)
They're already HERE, with boy friend and DOGS; I was kind of hoping they could go home. :-)
...Ophelia still stationary...slightly weaker...
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the United States from north of Edisto Beach South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch may have to be shifted northward later today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coastal region should monitor the progress of Ophelia.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.6 north... longitude 75.7 west or about 265 miles east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 250 miles south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is stationary and little motion is expected today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.
The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunters is 978 mb...28.88 inches.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...31.6 N... 75.7 W. Movement ...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 978 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
Air Force reconnaissance observations over the last few hours showed maximum flight-level winds of 74 kt...with little change in central pressure. The current intensity is reduced slightly...to 70 kt. The system appears well organized and vertical shear is not expected to become prohibitively strong during the next few days. Two factors mitigating against intensification are the presence of dry air...as evidenced by surface observations from South Carolina and North Carolina showing dew points in the low sixties...and cooler waters upwelled beneath this slow-moving Hurricane. Ophelia is likely to traverse a section of the Gulf Stream over the next few days... however...which would favor some intensification. Given these mixed signals...the official forecast does not call for a significant change in strength. This is very similar to the latest SHIPS forecast as well.
Ophelia continues stuck between two mid-level high pressure areas...and unable to make contact with the westerlies. Little change in this steering...or lack of steering...regime is likely for the next day or two. By around 72 hours...global model guidance shows a large mid-latitude trough advancing into the central United States. This feature should break down the blocking high to the northwest of the hurricane and allow Ophelia to begin moving on a north-northwestward or northward heading. The latest GFS run has shifted a little to the west of the previous one at days 3-5...but the new NOGAPS run has shifted a little to the east. The official forecast takes the tropical cyclone over/near eastern North Carolina in about 3 days...and is very similar to the forecast from the previous advisory. It should be added that 3-day track forecasts can easily be in error by 200 nautical miles.
No adjustments are made to the Hurricane Watch area at this time since there has been little movement...and the forecast track through 72 hours has not changed.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/1500z 31.6n 75.7w 70 kt 12hr VT 12/0000z 31.6n 75.7w 70 kt 24hr VT 12/1200z 31.9n 76.1w 75 kt 36hr VT 13/0000z 32.2n 76.5w 75 kt 48hr VT 13/1200z 32.7n 76.7w 75 kt 72hr VT 14/1200z 34.5n 76.5w 75 kt 96hr VT 15/1200z 37.5n 74.5w 50 kt 120hr VT 16/1200z 40.5n 71.0w 40 kt
Was eastern NC hit at all last year (Sept 04) by Hurricane Frances or Ivan?
I just ran that by the wife-unit ( since I was kind of surprised, myself ) and indeed, that is the case- I believe she said George Bowers was still subbing.
Jeanette was very helpful when I had to put my Mom in a home, and Father Bob sat with me when Em's one-hour surgery stretched into a 3 1/2 hour marathon. They're good folks.
I think they might be there for a couple more days...OTOH, they might have to go to work or something til evacuation orders are issued?
Course, you might get stuck with the dog. ;-)
I am in the Sandhills/coastal plains of NC. I sure hope this thing curves back out to sea. I don't want another Fran through here nor does the state need another Floyd type scenario.
A stalled storm like this is positively nerve wrecking. Come ashore, go out to sea...just do something already!
Our increased premium made our mortgage go up by about 300 bucks.
Different company - same no history of claims. I suspect it's a form of double whammy to recoup losses by 1)raising premium rates, and 2)increasing the coverage exponentially. Even my independent agent was dumbstruck by the coverage increase.
I have a cousin in the Tampa area who had no damage from the storms, but her insurance company told her if she didn't replace her roof and a certain window in her house, they'd discontinue her coverage....so she had to try to find someone to replace a perfectly good roof while there were still loads of people with blue tarps on their roof.
I am so ready for the latter part of the Fall season to arrive myself. In that brief window of time, there is nice weather and rarely any threats of anything severe or damaging.
I have to say we in the mid Carolinas have been truly blessed in the recent years when it comes to hurricanes. We haven't been hit as hard as we were with the likes of Hugo and Fran. Those two were enough to last me a lifetime.
My sentiments exactly.
What was the storm that we watched just like this a few days ago that ended up backing over Raleigh?
Yep - in the middle of hurricane season last year, my old insurance company sent notice they were pulling out of Florida. SO...this new company insisted on an inspection with very strict age limits for roof, electric box, and all appliances. Fortunately, I had replaced everything but the A/C within the past 5 years...and in the middle of August 2004, I purchased a new A/C unit.
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