Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[snowsislander]

I don't know much about all of this forecasting and whatnot, but I was just looking at the radar, and it looks like there is a lot of bad weather headed south from northern Louisiana.

[Types_with_Fist]

They've dodged so many bullets before. The things have always turned. Usually, in these discussions, others and I always fear the worst -- a direct hit at New Orleans. In the past, others more knowledgeable have pointed out that the storms would go elsewhere. I'm not hearing or seeing that this time and the fact that the governor didn't sound alarmed and the fact that The Quarter is active and that most are not leaving is scary as hell. This... just... isn't... good at all.

[Termite_Commander]

Just heard the mayor on WWL 870 am...no mandatory evacuation, He is "encouraging all to leave and will be a little more forceful in the am"

Be forceful now, ya bonehead! Sheesh.

[Vermonter]

The mayor may have a workable plan. If he told everyone to evacuate now, it might cause major gridlock. He seems to indicate he will take that step in the morning.

[LibSnubber]

"I have a friend there waiting...she has to have her son drive her and he's waiting until tomorrow to see what the storm will do."

If it were me, I'd go now too. But, if it'll help you worry less, everytime they've done one of these evacuations out of N.O. everyone does get out in time. It does take 4 times as long to get where you're going but the highways always seem to empty out in time. Twice we've had family leave at the last minute and both times they told us the highways were nearly empty and that they made record time to our house.

[numberonepal]

That's part of the storm "shadow".

[Termite_Commander]

Oh well.

[rwfromkansas]

DT is refusing to believe it will hit New Orleans.

[juzcuz]

mayor would go ahead & shut everything down
-----

If he does that all Hell will break loose.. The GANGS will rob as many evacuated homes and businesses that time allows. The police have been complaining that they don't have enough man power to patrol the murderous streets even on a normal day.

[nwctwx]

DT doesn't like to budge. ;-)

Calling for a direct NO hit is still a bit gutsy at this point... but, it's going to be close. And they will undoubtedly sustain some damage.

[nwctwx]

I hope they aren't staying put.

[Termite_Commander]

I'm clueless about acronyms; what's DT?

[spectre]

I just heard that since this storm is large, tropical force winds will be on shore by tomorrow evening. Your friend wouldn't want to be driving in that either.

sw

[Tall_Texan]

No studies have ever been done to show if the Superdome can withstand a major hurricane. No study has been done to see if generators in the dome will work in the event of a major hurricane.

There were studies done of the Astrodome in Houston after it was built however the engineers basically agreed that they'd have to see what happens in a real hurricane to be sure. Hurricane Alicia in 1983 passed almost over it with winds estimated at the time to be 70-80 mph and it did not suffer a scratch. The Superdome was built ten years later and looks more sturdy than the Astrodome does - its roof being one solid piece rather than hundreds of light panels. I think it will stand up in a hurricane.

The real worry is water and what happens if/when it begins filling with flood water. Is there a point at which people inside would be cutting themselves off from oxygen? Still, if I couldn't leave New Orleans, I would head for the Dome and find a spot in the upper deck. I'd probably volunteer to assist with all the disabled that would be coming in just to "pay" for staying there.

That's sort of what I did during Alicia. I spent the night in the hospital waiting area and then spent the next day mopping floors (leaks) before going home.

[Dog Gone]

I need to go do something else besides sitting here at the computer further justifying my concern. Very few people, apparently including a lot of New Orleans residents, seem to appreciate the magnitude of what looks like wholesale destruction of the city within a day and a half from now.

It just makes me sick.

This is the storm we've all worried about and they're not taking it seriously.

[LA Woman3]

Have you been on the Huey P. Long? That one is s-c-a-r-y




Yes, only once in our Expedition. That was enough for me!

[RobFromGa]

That's Acme Oyster House, great spot.

[LA Woman3]

I hate all bridges, especially the tall ones and avoid them whenever I can. There is a fairly common condition called "gephyrophobia" (inordinate fear of bridges) which I may actually have. Whenever I cross a bridge, I get a very anxious feeling. Nothing to do with the hurricane.



You must love living in Louisiana....we have our share of bridges!

[Strategerist]

Simply being round is an enormous help; in Charley houses that were normally constructed in every way...but were simply round...survived totally undamaged while every home around them lost their roofs.

[Tall_Texan]

DT is refusing to believe it will hit New Orleans.

I've seen these storms slide (usually to the east) as they approach landfall which might spare New Orleans from a direct hit and cause the Mississippi coast to bear the brunt of it.

The trouble for New Orleans is that a near miss on that side blows water from Lake Ponchitrain into the city instead.