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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
once it is picked up by the weakness, I would imagine the steering currents would increase the speed.
It's been a while since I lived there, but what are the chances of them turning all the I-10 lanes westbound out of town all the way to Houston? It doesn't sound like it will happen today, but maybe tomorrow? The outer bands should start hitting by then, and maybe it will sink in.
Of course, it may hit Mobile too, and I'd look like an idiot, but better safe than sorry.
This is a nightmare. And the governor is asking residents to drive courteously.
The timing couldn't be worse. This is all unfolding on a weekend when most people don't even pay attention to the news. If I was writing a novel about a hurricane hitting New Orleans, I couldn't devise a more potentially horrible scenario.
I dunno. Don't want to downplay the dangers, which are very real, but it still requires a fairly narrow window for the worst to occur. But if I were a betting man, even if NO does take a direct hit and the worst case scenario occurs, I'd bet that virtually everyone who tries to leave(other than the ones who wait until the last minute on Monday) will make it out. The shutins with out decent relatives are another story, but probably even most of them will find a way or be aided enough to survive until post-storm rescue. But add in the stubborn and fools, and it still could easily be the worst disaster in our country's history, and certainly economically. Luckily we still have a long way to go and there still are lots of variables and potential paths. Heck, even you and Houston still aren't 100% out of the woods.
The GFDL would make the post at 629 become a reality. A regional nightmare could quite possibly become a national one if that were to happen.
Just a gentle reminder that prayers offered up from the garage, the kitchen, the office desk and the back yard are heard just as clearly as those offered from a church pew.
Waiting until Sunday to pray is a rather unusual tactic.
Daily prayer is a far better idea.
But I guess only on Sunday is better than never at all.
of course....I am talking about corporate prayer as a body together.
Unfortunately, you evacuated right into Charle's path.
Someone at another forum said the GFDL initialized the storm too strong, so it may not be that strong at the end of the day, but probably still nasty.
The Times Picayune
Printed copies of the state's new evacuation map, including the details of a complicated plan designed to let evacuees use all lanes of Interstates 10 and 59 to leave the New Orleans area, will be available in several local stores beginning this weekend.
The evacuation plan also includes traffic pattern changes on the Causeway, Interstate 55 and U.S. 190.
The Louisiana Citizen Awareness & Disaster Evacuation Guide also includes tips on how to put together an evacuation plan, what preparations to take before disasters, a list of emergency radio stations, and a list of roadside centers where shelter information can be obtained.
A coalition including the State Police, the state transportation department, Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, and the American Red Cross coordinated the printing of 1 million copies of the color maps.
"We learned the lessons from the Hurricane Ivan evacuation, and we put those lessons to use in developing a new plan," Transportation Secretary Johnny Bradberry said. "This document is proof that government can and does listen to the concerns of citizens."
Bradberry said residents should determine now where they will go and use the map to put in writing how best to get there.
Coalition officials said people should expect traffic delays during a full-scale evacuation because the 11 lanes out of the New Orleans area can handle only 18,000 cars an hour when the contra-flow plan is in place. That's a good reason to leave as early as possible before a storm, and to go north rather than west, officials said.
I heard, a few mintes ago, some forecaster tell NO to pay attention, this one is for real....to be worried.
He had told them previously, with another hurricane, to not worry.
This one he's telling them to worry!
I wouldn't be surprised if she actually got to cat5. This is going to be h*%^ wherever it hits.
That was Bastardi on Fox. I got goose bumps listening.
From Jeff Master's weather blog on http://www.wunderground.com
"I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastropic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evactuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars."
Dr. Jeff Masters
contraflow....traffic going in one direction.
I don't know how far the contra flow will be implemented, but am willing to bet that it will be instituted by sometime tomorrow.
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