Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[rang1995]

well it's still to early--i would get worried if on track with 24 hours and no shear..but good luck to all

[mewzilla]

They'll open up schools, arenas, even the Superdome for those who can't leave and hope for the best.

Sigh. For once folks might actually want to sit in the nosebleed section.

[Types_with_Fist]

Where's Geraldo? We need him in New Orleans for this one (semi-serious).

[janetjanet998]

new GFDL...HAS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO YET!!!165 MPH into L. Ponchatrane!!!! Look at the frame just before landfall 916mb!!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_12z/ghmloop.html

[Revel]

My guess is that the federal government is involved behind the scenes in deciding if they should evac NO. People have pointed out all the oil refineries and riggs in this area. Well even if the hurricane misses NO...The evac is going to cause economic damage to the whole country and not just NO. People are not going to be too happy when Gas goes over $3.00 a gallon. This is also a very bad time considering that the refineries are now in the mode for making heating oil. The cost of heating oil is becoming so high that I am afraid some people are literally going to freeze this winter. Imagine $700 just to fill a 275 Gallon tank. This storm could make it much worse. So I am sure that feds have a very keen interest in this are in constant communication with NO.

[Blennos]

No, I have only been here for 4 years. That bridge scares me to death! Not a safe feeling when you can't see any land!

I hate all bridges, especially the tall ones and avoid them whenever I can. There is a fairly common condition called "gephyrophobia" (inordinate fear of bridges) which I may actually have. Whenever I cross a bridge, I get a very anxious feeling. Nothing to do with the hurricane.

[rwfromkansas]

holy crap.

My understanding is tha the GFDL is essentially the gold standard in tropical models. Is this correct?

[shield]

OMG....

[mewzilla]

Mayor of NO now on FNC.

[Palladin]

The survivor stories are amazing. 30 foot waves, whole buildings floating away, thousands of water moccasins, wild cows, clinging to loved ones who have already drowned...quite a tragedy.

[rwfromkansas]

rigs are already shut down......gas will go up as it is even with a miss.

I don't think the feds are involved.

[mewzilla]

Mayor: Begin to plan an exit strategy.

Me: Begin?

[Types_with_Fist]

I heard stories about people fighting the snakes for tree space during Audrey. Horrid storm.

[janetjanet998]

yes that is correct..its the best model they have..in fact it was the only one to forecast that south move near miami

[SE Mom]

PMG...The governor just said in reference to driving out of town.."Please practice extreme courtesy"..........

She is UNBELIEVABLE.

[mewzilla]

You're right. That was the gov, NOT the mayor. And boy did it sound like she was offering a mixed message to me. Ifs, maybes. Yeah, that's really going to encourage folks to just get the heck outta Dodge. Sheesh!

[nwctwx]

GFDL is usually very good.

[dennis1x]

the latest gfdl run has a cat 5 hitting south of new orleans, and still at 926mb at lake ponchatrain.

model guidance has come back west again....

48 hours out and if the models are correct and this somehow plays out it will be quite a story.

[janetjanet998]

12z EURO just in..also has a direct NO hit

[Revel]

"I don't think the feds are involved."


Well if they are or they aren't.... We are going to be suffering from this on a nation wide scale.