Forecast models converging on New Orleans area. However, Katrina has been delaying the anticipated turn.
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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.
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Katrina Live Thread, Part II
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Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Forecast models converging on New Orleans area. However, Katrina has been delaying the anticipated turn.
They delayed the call for the turn to the west until tomorrow. But I notice that the projected path still shows west for the first leg. Is this forcasterese for "we don't know?"
Tropical Storm Five Day Forecast Map (~23K)
This storm hasn't done much of anything expected to date.
recon about to reach the center....will be the first pressure reading in a while....ill update when it comes in.
Many thanks, NN. You do such a superb job!
Goodnight bump.
Thanks for the ping!!
I think Katrina is still intensely unpredictable for a couple reasons. There's no telling when exactly that ridge that's keeping the storm from tracking north will move westward as predicted, and once Katrina slips through it's altogether possible the hurricane will begin tracking back toward the northeast. The computer models seem to match pretty well right now, but they are all operating on the same basic assumption of when and how the ridge will move west.
The Weather Channel has now accepted the possibility that Texas may now be in play for landfall. I hope it doesn't hit anybody.
If she doesn't make a turn for several more hours, does Texas come into the picture?
This storm hasn't done much of anything expected to date.
----
I hear ya on that.
Just a couple of days ago, I thought it was gonna skirt the west side of florida and then head up thru georgia and up the coast .
None of the 0Z models have shifted W of Louisiana. A few have come back east a tad, but are generally all tightly clustered around New Orleans.
There never was any sort of sharp drastic turn forecast; just a gradual, imperceptible turn.
Nighters!
Wow, I stumbled in here because I misread the title: Hurricane Katherine (Harris) Live Thread, Part III.
Wondered why she rated a late night/early morning live thread.
Think I'll lurk for awhile! We have friends and family scattered throughout the area.
Thanks.
I keep getting the impression they are surprised at the continued southward tilt to the motion.
I won't start the Katherine Harris threads until next year
;o)
According to another forum with a person who has friends in the oil industry, they are already shutting down lots of rigs, and this thing is headed right toward them.
If it is as bad as it looks like it will be, and it goes close to the platforms, gas may shoot up to 3 bucks.
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