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Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:


New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:


Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:


WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: byebyebigeasy; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; miami; tropical; weather
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1 posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: aberaussie; Alas Babylon!; Alia; alnick; Amelia; asp1; AntiGuv; Bahbah; balrog666; blam; Blennos; ..

Forecast models converging on New Orleans area. However, Katrina has been delaying the anticipated turn.

2 posted on 08/26/2005 10:27:30 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

They delayed the call for the turn to the west until tomorrow. But I notice that the projected path still shows west for the first leg. Is this forcasterese for "we don't know?"


3 posted on 08/26/2005 10:32:01 PM PDT by Ingtar (Understanding is a three-edged sword : your side, my side, and the truth in between ." -- Kosh)
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To: NautiNurse
Thanks. :)

Tropical Storm Five Day Forecast Map (~23K)


4 posted on 08/26/2005 10:32:05 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... "To remain silent when they should protest makes cowards of men." -- THOMAS JEFFERSON)
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To: All; NautiNurse
New 00z guidance --MM5 GFS ETA RGEM, DISASTER for nat gas!!
Meteorologist: Dave Tolleris

US Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Production Impact Estimate

Eastern United States Weather Forums

5 posted on 08/26/2005 10:33:05 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Ingtar

This storm hasn't done much of anything expected to date.


6 posted on 08/26/2005 10:33:23 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: dennis1x

recon about to reach the center....will be the first pressure reading in a while....ill update when it comes in.


7 posted on 08/26/2005 10:33:44 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: NautiNurse

Many thanks, NN. You do such a superb job!


8 posted on 08/26/2005 10:33:51 PM PDT by nuclady
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To: NautiNurse
Cruised through real fast.

Goodnight bump.

9 posted on 08/26/2005 10:34:27 PM PDT by blam
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the ping!!

I think Katrina is still intensely unpredictable for a couple reasons. There's no telling when exactly that ridge that's keeping the storm from tracking north will move westward as predicted, and once Katrina slips through it's altogether possible the hurricane will begin tracking back toward the northeast. The computer models seem to match pretty well right now, but they are all operating on the same basic assumption of when and how the ridge will move west.


10 posted on 08/26/2005 10:34:55 PM PDT by AntiGuv ("Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." Philip K. Dick)
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To: NautiNurse

The Weather Channel has now accepted the possibility that Texas may now be in play for landfall. I hope it doesn't hit anybody.


11 posted on 08/26/2005 10:35:26 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult
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To: nwctwx
Those sites are positively frightening.

If she doesn't make a turn for several more hours, does Texas come into the picture?

12 posted on 08/26/2005 10:35:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

This storm hasn't done much of anything expected to date.


----

I hear ya on that.

Just a couple of days ago, I thought it was gonna skirt the west side of florida and then head up thru georgia and up the coast .


13 posted on 08/26/2005 10:35:54 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... "To remain silent when they should protest makes cowards of men." -- THOMAS JEFFERSON)
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To: Hillarys Gate Cult
Well, you answered my question before I posted it--clairvoyant one!
14 posted on 08/26/2005 10:37:01 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

None of the 0Z models have shifted W of Louisiana. A few have come back east a tad, but are generally all tightly clustered around New Orleans.

There never was any sort of sharp drastic turn forecast; just a gradual, imperceptible turn.


15 posted on 08/26/2005 10:37:25 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: blam

Nighters!


16 posted on 08/26/2005 10:37:52 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

Wow, I stumbled in here because I misread the title:  Hurricane Katherine (Harris) Live Thread, Part III.

Wondered why she rated a late night/early morning live thread.

Think I'll lurk for awhile!  We have friends and family scattered throughout the area.

Thanks.

17 posted on 08/26/2005 10:38:06 PM PDT by Racehorse (Where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.)
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To: Strategerist

I keep getting the impression they are surprised at the continued southward tilt to the motion.


18 posted on 08/26/2005 10:39:45 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Racehorse
Hurricane Katherine (Harris) Live Thread, Part III

I won't start the Katherine Harris threads until next year
;o)

19 posted on 08/26/2005 10:40:50 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

According to another forum with a person who has friends in the oil industry, they are already shutting down lots of rigs, and this thing is headed right toward them.

If it is as bad as it looks like it will be, and it goes close to the platforms, gas may shoot up to 3 bucks.


20 posted on 08/26/2005 10:41:22 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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