Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[sheikdetailfeather]

The clouds here in Central Fla are moving very fast this morning.

Forecast for today:

MIDDAY: Windy. A burst of Heavy Rain.

5pm: A heavy downpour is possible.

[spectre]

Frank Lyons (TWC) just said "New Orleans" could be seeing a major hit. Not a prediction for a direct hit, still too early.

My fear is that Gulf Coast people are suffering from Hurricane fatigue and have seen predicted Force 4 go to 2 on landfall. So they will expect the same, and stay :(

[Guenevere]

Many in Florida feel the same way....

..I evaucated twice last year, and tend to stay put if another one comes...

...but not if it's a category 4 and a direct hit...no way!

Our area didn't get a direct hit, but close enough...

..we are still rebuilding around here.....trees uprooted, many, many roofs damaged.

I felt like Scarlett O'Hara returning home....

..and my Tara was still standing!!

[NautiNurse]

Yes--amazing.

[AnAmericanMother]

Well, I'm glad she's taking action.

My parents made fun of me when I told them to get out ahead of Hugo. Of course, Hugo shifted north at the last minute and hit Charleston instead of my parents' house . . . but if it hadn't swung around they would have been really stuck.

But a couple of false alarms tend to make people complacent. I hope the traffic isn't too bad. Surely there are back roads out of town?

[jch10]

Yes, I do! It was Juan or Kate, I think....in the mid-80's. We went to bed thinking it had passed us by only to wake up to it coming back!
It looks like NW Florida has dodged Katrina. We were packing up to evacuate. Our good fortune means someone else will take the brunt of this one. We haven't even finished repairs on our dock from Dennis!!

[LA Woman3]

Update....per WWL
It is likely contraflow will begin this afternoon out of New Orleans "as early as 4:00 PM".

[numberonepal]

Here's the latest SST 26+ from Google Earth. This is a large file.

[Peach]

Did I just hear them say on the Weather Channel that the threat of wave action is today and tomorrow? New Orleans is going to be behind the curve if they wait until noon to make decisions.

[spectre]

If you own property in Florida, it's TARA to me! LOL.

That's the problem, Guen...they call for a 4, and well, we've seen less on landfall.

I don't know why, but this Krazy Kat scares me.

I'm sorry for your situation..Guen :(

[NautiNurse]

"as early as 4:00 PM"

Thanks--of course, it's still too early to predict landfall with pinpoint accuracy. The predicament is the need to begin 60-72 hours ahead of the storm. An impossible situation.

[NautiNurse]

Unfortunately, N.O. is already behind the curve due to limited evac routes and population.

[4everontheRight]

My sister lives in Diamondhead MS right near the border of MS/LA...she works in NO and was told at work on Friday not to even bother thinking about coming in on Monday. I spoke with her last night...she was at a Saints game in the Dome. Yep. She is making great progress in her concern over these storms.

[NautiNurse]

I mentioned earlier--this storm is giving me a sick feeling, usually reserved for a big storm headed toward Tampa Bay.

[StoneGiant]

Received this last year from a friend....  Déjà vu, all over again...

[bored at work]

omG. this thing is turning into a real monster!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[SauronOfMordor]

The morning satellite pic looks pretty impressive.

Anybody in the area should already have topped off his gas tank on any and all vehicles (as everybody else will get the same idea later this morning) and already have the wife and kids on the road to relatives/friends inland while daddy finishes up securing the house before heading inland as well. The NO evac routes will be a zoo very shortly

[NautiNurse]

I have that pic on the refrigerator. It really does point to my house...

[bored at work]

excellent pik :) but ya outta see the movie . . . lol

[bluecollarman]

We will Be taking no chances in Milton. Remember this?

Ivan is now about 120 miles south of the Alabama line and is expected to come ashore early tomorrow along the Alabama-Mississippi line.