Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[AntiGuv]

It's basically showing Hurricane Andrew on top of New Orleans..

[buickmackane]

Thanks for posting those helpful links. There's a parallel discussion thread about potential damage to New Orleans on the Weather Underground site at this link:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=76&tstamp=200508&allcomments=1

By the way, anyone evacuating from New Orleans probably should skip Alexandria/Pineville as a potential destination. The hotels fill up instantly here and you'll probably be redirected to a shelter.

Prayers to everyone affected by this storm!

[Ingtar]

Watching the RADAR myself. I think the turn to the west will commence soon. I have this bizarre theory about "friction" in the bands over Cuba and Florida pulling the storm SW. If I am correct, the bands to the south are clearing those mountains and I expect her to turn. But I did not even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[MikefromOhio]

possibly...

but she is already south of her forecasted position...

The further south = the more west she will end up I believe.....

I am still not getting a good vibe here....

[nuclady]

Nite all - stay safe and see you (later) in the morning--screen is getting fuzzy!!

[MikefromOhio]

night...

[Ingtar]

You and me both. I am all but pleading with a friend near N.O. to get ready to move. But she will not face 21 hours of traffic again.

[MikefromOhio]

if she is still there now....

that sucks. I am sorry.

[M. Espinola]

This data may be of interest:

Hurricanes Striking Florida Since August 2004

[Ingtar]

Last three frames of RADAR appear to show the turn to west. If so, GDFL appears to remain closest model to actual track over time.

[M. Espinola]

I was wondering if she would make a very abrupt turn and head back across Florida but now do you believe it far enough west? The northern panhandle of Florida could still get whacked.

[Ingtar]

I think it is going to be a bit west of the last forecast, over or just west of New Orleans. Unless it turns as it is hitting south Louisiana. But I am no expert.

[AntiGuv]

This time last year Frances hadn't yet made landfall, and we still had 9 named storms afterward - including Ivan and Jeanne.

[AntiGuv]

If we have 9 more named storms we will get through Vince. I'm still waiting for the year when they run out of names.

Trivia question: Anyone know how they name storms after they run out of names??

[neutrality]

Pressure down to 945mb

947
URNT12 KNHC 270823
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/08:06:00Z
B. 24 deg 23 min N
084 deg 17 min W
C. 700 mb 2629 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 262 deg 086 kt
G. 170 deg 007 nm
H. 945 mb
I. 13 C/ 3039 m
J. 17 C/ 3049 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1212A KATRINA OB 17
MAX FL WIND 104 KT NE QUAD 07:08:10 Z

[Flyer]

Howdy.

I've had Crawford on the mind and have only been watching Katrina with less than half a mind. By the time I get back Sunday it could be interesting.

I'm Crawford bound!

[MikefromOhio]

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.


Ohh lord....the wall has closed off....

[M. Espinola]

Here are the remaining names:

Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, Wilma

I am not sure what they do, probably begin with the letter 'A' again.(?)

Retired Names - Often the same names are used over and over, year after year, but when there is a particularly bad storm that has had a severe impact on the population they retire the name and it is never used again. There will never again be another Hurricane Andrew! Other storms that have had their names retired are:

1960 Donna (1 , 2)

1972 Agnes (1 , 2)

1979 David

1989 Hugo (2)

1992 Andrew (2)

1 - In the top 37 deadliest storms ever

2 - In the top 31 costliest storms ever

[Ingtar]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 270847
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...KATRINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

AT 5 AM EDT... 0900Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND
FOR FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[tom paine 2]

bump Nice work gathering all the data.