Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[meyer]

Down to 939 MB, hmm? Isn't that the lowest it has been so far?

I believe so.

BTW, here's a handy millibar to inches of mercury converter (and a few other weather converters): HERE

[ex-Texan]

There are live video cams on this site Look on the left for links. Unfortunately, it is night in New Orleans. Perhaps some better images tomorrow?

[Mr. Jeeves]

When the chips are down, a Redneck with duct tape will always come through for you.

You should make that your tagline...LOL!

[dogbyte12]

New Map

[SunnySide]

Would you please grow up and keep this thread on topic and not turn it into another Yankee versus Redneck debate.

Petty bitter people like you make me wish my grandfather never came to America.

[Blennos]

I am in Ascension. I am staying if the track stays east of us slightly. If it heads to the west, I am toast. I am more worried about trees falling onto the house than anything else. Have some 80 foot trees about 50 feet from the house. Not very comforting. A 75 mile an hour wind might bring em down. So better safe than sorry. If it's dicey at all, I am going.

We are in north Ascension. Like your situation, there are some troublesome trees too close to the house -- and a bayou(Manchac) right behind it. If it stays east, as you said, we are staying. If if moves too far west, then the house can fend for itself. This one looks too mean to ride out.

[janetjanet998]

hurricane conditions near NO in 24 hours..since the storm is so huge..and they still haven't called for a man. evac of NO yet

[mhking]

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2005


reports from an Air Force plane indicate that the intensity remains
about 100 knots...but the wind field is expanding. The minimum
central pressure reported this evening has been 939 mb. The
satellite presentation has been up and down...and has been changing
from a coil to a ring of very deep convection throughout the
evening. T-numbers continue around 5.5 on the Dvorak scale which
also supports 100 knots. Data from the NOAA jet currently sampling
the environment...indicate that the cyclonic circulation extends
upward to about 200 mb and it is surrounded by a large scale
upper-level anticylone. This pattern...in combination with the high
oceanic heat content...fancy words for a warm ocean...along the path
of Katrina...calls for additional strengthening. The strengthening
is also forecast by the SHIPS and the GFDL models which bring
Katrina to 130 and 123 knots...respectively. Changes in the inner
core structure before landfall may modify the intensity of Katrina
up or down...but unfortunately...these changes are not possible to
forecast nowadays with our present knowledge. We can only describe
them as they occur. However...despite these changes in the inner
core...the bottom line is that Katrina is expected to be an intense
and dangerous hurricane heading toward the north central Gulf
Coast...and this has to be taken very seriously.


It appears that Katrina has begun to move toward the west-northwest
or 290 degrees at 6 knots as the high to the northwest of the
hurricane begins to retreat westward and leaves a weakness over the
central Gulf of Mexico. The combination of building high pressure
over the western North Atlantic...and a weak trough approaching the
Gulf of Mexico from the northwest...should result in a pattern that
forces Katrina to turn northwestward and northward toward the
central Gulf Coast. This is also the solution provided by the
global model consensus which the official forecast follows very
closely.


Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 28/0300z 25.0n 86.2w 100 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 25.4n 87.3w 110 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 27.0n 89.0w 120 kt
36hr VT 29/1200z 29.0n 89.8w 125 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 31.0n 89.8w 85 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/0000z 36.5n 87.0w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 01/0000z 41.0n 80.5w 30 kt...becoming extratropical
120hr VT 02/0000z 45.5n 71.4w 25 kt...extratropical

[Termite_Commander]

A tiny little eye is pretty discernible on infrared satellite now.

[NautiNurse]

I've got a page of cam links for the next thread. We had problems with several live cams posted earlier--with heavy traffic, they were really locking up the thread.

[4everontheRight]

"A hurricane warning will be issued during the next advisory that will include Morgan City to Miss/Al line".....

Great!! My sister is leaving NO and going to Jasper Cty, MS and thinks she is safe!

[fooman]

you are good. esp the warm water call...

[snowsislander]

Down to 939 MB, hmm? Isn't that the lowest it has been so far?

I pulled down all of the "Vortex" messages for 2005, and it appears that 939 millibars is the lowest so far for Katrina.

The only hurricane this year that I saw anything lower in the "Vortex" messages was 929 millibars for Emily back in July (Emily also two other readings less than 939: one at 937, and one at 931; I also found a message that Emily had one reading of 939 millibars.)

[Ellesu]

How soon before landfall will we know for certain where it will make landfall? Hours?

[Revel]

The thing that would scare me if I were you is that if something like actually did happen then you would be one of first people they would come looking for.

[janetjanet998]

holy sh*T.. i forgot since the storm is so huge areas wise the storm sureg will be huge and over a larger area too..
from the discussion...
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels...locally as high as 25 feet along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

[streetpreacher]

Landrieu on now; she's worried if Katrina wipes out a 100,000 dispossessed New Orleaners, she'll lose her base.

[dogbyte12]

New National Hurricane Forecast up.

[southernnorthcarolina]

The "hurricane party" story is a classic example of the urban legend. It never happened, yet it gets more catastrophic with each passing year. The legend which refuses to die is addressed HERE. Scroll down to the "Hurricane Party" heading.

Now, I don't suggest that people didn't die in Camille due to their failure to leave; nor do I advocate that folks in harm's way take Katrina lightly. But the famous Camille hurricane party never happened.

[mhking]

The official line is that they expect 145 MPH sustained winds at landfall, and they're expecting this thing to hammer New Orleans at 8 Monday morning.

Hurricane City has gone from Jim's live analysis to streaming The Weather Channel. The other links I've posted are live; the only exceptions are the Birmingham link which is running an Alabama weather radar, and ABCNews Now who won't go to local programming until late tomorrow.

From what I understand at least one and possibly two local stations in Mobile, AL will begin streaming tomorrow. I'll have those later.

I'm gonna bail for the night - the next two days are going to be wild ones.