Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
At this rate, I'm guessing it'll be a cat 3 by midday tomorrow...
They kept the pressure at 965. IIRC, recon should be heading there now. The eye was looking tighter a bit ago.
Thank you, dear.
New NHC track takes it just east of NO... just about the worst possible track for them.
This feels like the Ivan thread from a year ago... with experience added.
HurricaneCity is discussing it now -- Jim says that the NHC has her coming in near New Orleans Monday night as a strong cat 3/borderline cat 4.
...particularly once their power goes out.
The latest recon will be very interesting.
Folks should read that discussion slowly and absorb what it's saying. This is an extremely dangerous storm.
Is this going to be the New Orlean's storm, that the forecasters been dreading for the last how many years?
Is there an image anywhere? Not up yet on NHC website.
yep--we've earned our stripes around here.
I'm truly scared on this one, folks...
Your post gave me chills....then I noticed the post number....
Forecast track has shifted west, to the mouth of the Pearl River (the LA/MS border).
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
We don't know that for sure yet. Katrina has been full of surprises for more than 24 hours already. Likewise, a couple of us have noted that all the storms this year (and a few last year) have tracked east of predictions.
Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 15
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005
the satellite presentation has continued to improve and consists of
a perfect a comma-shaped cloud pattern which begins over western
Cuba and wraps around a large cluster of very deep convection. This
band is probably producing near tropical storm force winds along
the north coast of western Cuba. Although the eye is not clearly
visible on IR images...radar data indicate that the eye is embedded
within this circular area of deep convection. T-numbers from SAB
and TAFB have increased to 5.0 on the Dvorak scale. Therefore...
the initial intensity has been adjusted to 90 knots. An Air Force
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to be in Katrina in the next few
hours. The hurricane is expected to be under a typical 200 mb
anticylone...with a cyclonic circulation extending upward to that
level. This is the typical pattern observed in intense hurricanes.
In addition...Katrina is forecast to move directly over the warm
loop current of the Gulf of Mexico...which is like adding high
octane fuel to the fire. Therefore...the official forecast brings
Katrina to 115 knots...or a category four on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. The GFDL is more aggressive and calls for 124
knots and 922 mb. The FSU superensemble is even more aggressive
bringing Katrina to 131 knots.
Katrina continues to move stubbornly toward the west-southwest or
250 degrees at 7 knots along the eastern side of a very strong
deep-layer mean high centered over Texas. In fact...data from the
NOAA jet just relayed by the meteorologist onboard indicate that
the high continues to be very strong. However...this feature is
expected to move westward and leave a weakness over the central
Gulf of Mexico. Katrina will likely take that opportunity and
begin to turn gradually toward the west-northwest and then
northward. The official forecast brings the core of the intense
hurricane over the north central Gulf of Mexico in 48 hours or so.
It is Worth noting that the guidance spread has decreased and most
of the reliable numerical model tracks are now clustered between
the eastern coast of Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi. This
clustering increases the confidence in the forecast.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 27/0300z 24.6n 83.6w 90 kt
12hr VT 27/1200z 24.6n 84.6w 100 kt
24hr VT 28/0000z 25.0n 86.0w 115 kt
36hr VT 28/1200z 26.0n 87.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 29/0000z 27.0n 89.0w 115 kt
72hr VT 30/0000z 30.5n 89.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 31/0000z 35.0n 87.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 01/0000z 40.5n 81.0w 25 kt...becoming extratropical
11PM NHC tracking map
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.