Bam, the yellow track just ran at 2EDT.
Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Bam, the yellow track just ran at 2EDT.
You in Houma? Folks there need to think about getting the hell out.
About 25 miles straight north of houma
This is what Dennis did to us. The local weatherman even mentioned our specific neighborhood just before Dennis made landfall. After a quick change of undies, we settled in for our first stay-at-home Hurricane. Hopefully Katrina will not follow the same path. This time we've made hotel reservations in the event we are in for a direct hit.
It's going to be a rough time for the GOM the next couple of days.
we will see...
I certainly hope you are correct
I'm in Destin...and I've got a reeeeelly bad feeling about this one...gas-lines are already 45 min long.
I rode out Erin, Opal, Ivan and Dennis without any damage, but...this one I don't like at all...
Screw it - I just ordered me a hotel in Jacksonville for the week...yes - I gots the heebie-jeebies...trust your instincts...
Damn...I was going fishing in Grand Isle on Monday. May have to board up instead.
Bastardi just posted a FRIDAY 4:00 PM MAJOR EMERGENCY POST on his private site - KATRINA THREATENING TO BECOME CATASTROPHE.
well do what you think is best...
I'm not in the line of fire like you are :)
Good Luck!!!
Paradie? I've driven down 90 a time or two through there. Y'all might get a little wet. The pet gator might take up residence closer than you like if the models are correct.
Howdy neighbor, I'm in Navarre. Have you heard of any gas shortages yet? I still need to fill up and have my gas cans full for the generator.
Good for you. There is nothing wrong with planning ahead for this storm. You will likely know in plenty of time if you need to cancel the reservation without penalty.
Just visited this thread. Haven't realized before now that Katrina could be a major hurricane . You say it could reach CAT 4??? any links?
hang on--the 5PM public advisory will be out shortly. They are currently updated every three hours now, and things are changing rapidly. Glad you stopped by!
bump
...Katrina continuing to move west-southwestward away from the Florida Keys... ...Watches and warnings discontinued for Mainland Florida...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...all warnings and watches for peninsular Florida have been discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay from Key Largo south and westward to Key West and the Dry Tortugas.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located near latitude 24.8 north... longitude 82.9 west or about 70 miles... west-northwest of Key West Florida.
Katrina is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph. This motion is forecast to continue this evening...with a gradual turn toward the west expected on Saturday.
Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph... with higher gusts. Katrina is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Katrina is forecast to become a category three ...Major... hurricane today and on Saturday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles. During the past hour...a sustained wind of 81 mph with a gust to 105 mph was reported at Dry Tortugas C-man station located in the southern eyewall. Sustained winds of tropical storm-force are still occurring across the lower Florida Keys...while wind gusts to tropical storm-force are occurring across the middle to upper Florida Keys.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance aircraft was 965 mb...28.50 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels... can be expected along the southwest coast of Florida in areas of onshore flow east of Cape Sable... and in Florida Bay. Storm surge will gradually subside tonight.
Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 8 inches over the lower Florida Keys...with isolated storm total amounts of 15 to 20 inches. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are expected over northwestern Cuba...and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight over the Florida Keys.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...24.8 N... 82.9 W. Movement toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
You are correct. LOL But he is entertaining.
Official forecast track has moved west to around Pascagoula, MS.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
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