Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[STARWISE]

Thanks for that -- got it marked.

[numberonepal]

Is that from today? Man, 6ft and glassy is rare on the Gulf Coast. I know since I used to fancy myself a "surfer" growing up. I found out what a chump I was when I moved to San Diego, however.

[eastforker]

Could the steering currents bring it west far enough to affect the Upper Texas coast or are they prety sure on the alabam/florida coast?

[STARWISE]

Rush on -- says it was firing blanks up there - WBP -- 40 mph gusts .. rained stopped around 4pm up there.

[Tall_Texan]

The wide spread is weather forecasterese for "we don't know".

This has dipped so far south that Cuba is getting hit with the outer bands. It's soon going reposition itself to where Dennis was not that long ago. I hope it doesn't follow the same path. The more it dallies on this west and southwest path, the more it will strengthen over warmer waters.

The projected paths are really expecting a pressure ridge to steer this northward or northeastly. The question is how quickly it will be influenced by that.

[mhking]

Could the steering currents bring it west far enough to affect the Upper Texas coast or are they prety sure on the alabam/florida coast?

They're pretty solid on the AL/FL coastline. The only question is how far west it'll go. I'm guessing between Pensacola and Mobile...

Posters at Hurricane City and Storm2K are both calling for AT LEAST cat 4 before landfall. The Gulf is as warm as bathwater, and unlike when Dennis came in last month, there's nothing to stir up and cool the waters before it makes landfall.

This could be really nasty, folks...

[NautiNurse]

says it was firing blanks up there

yesterday's news--Katrina isn't firing blanks now

[STARWISE]

Absolutely .. he was saying people were emailing him about how he fared ..so he was relating his experiences, and he was giving the contrast of what they got up there to the devastation in the south, and how people were caught short because they felt they were safe when the storm moved north for awhile.

[nwctwx]

It probably doesn't deserve the bashing it gets... in fact, it was pretty dead on with the first landfall in FL. Models continue to shift west... I think you are right with a shift west at 5pm from NHC.

The weakness is very small (NO to Pensacola area)...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

So far she just doesn't seem to want to turn north at all.

[nwctwx]

12z model plots, definate trend west.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

[blam]

"Have you seen this yet?"

No, I haven't. I sensed it and heard from people in the neighborhood. The Dauphin Islanders are already scrambling to secure their things down there.

I just fell into line and filled up all my gas cans just based on the rumors. I'm ready except putting up the shutters.

[Dog Gone]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

It's pretty clear why the NHC thinks Katrina will move north and why Texas is in no danger.

[numberonepal]

Charge up the drill, it's coming.

[sheikdetailfeather]

All I have looked at shows it will NOT go to Texas but rather Florida once more as the models show. 8am Monday predicts 125 mph when it hits land according to our local news in Orlando. It is very sunny here in Central Florida right now. Seems for some reason that the sun gets unusually bright during hurricanes.

[blam]

"The further West it goes, the higher the gas prices are going. Bet the gas prices go to 4 bucks a gallon if it lands near Mississippi coast."

You may have something.

I filled up my truck this morning at $2.47 gal and I went back about 2-3 hrs later and it's already at $2.51 gal.

[Strategerist]

All I have looked at shows it will NOT go to Texas but rather Florida once more as the models show.

As of right now, there isn't a single reliable tropical forecast model with a landfall east of Mississippi.

[blam]

"They're pretty solid on the AL/FL coastline. The only question is how far west it'll go. I'm guessing between Pensacola and Mobile..."

Thanks. (...just thanks!)

[Oystir]

Palm Beach Gardens checking in. Nothing to really report damage wise. I was at the beach earlier and the tidal surge did not reach the turtle nests and beach erosion was minimal. All very good considering it hit just 50 miles south.

[Oystir]

I agree, the forecast models have not been very good with this storm.

[Strategerist]

Well, they're not very reliable with weak storms or storms having land interaction; over time you'll see them become more reliable, and I suspect the solutions from today and tonight will end up pretty accurately depicting where the storm will go.