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Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:


Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; livehurricanekatrina; tropical; weather
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To: NautiNurse

Someone needs to locate the hurricane magnet that aliens apparently buried in the Panhandle a couple of years ago...


181 posted on 08/26/2005 8:27:15 AM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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To: dirtboy; highimpact
Someone needs to locate the hurricane magnet that aliens apparently buried in the Panhandle a couple of years ago...

highimpact---your mission...should you choose to accept it...

182 posted on 08/26/2005 8:29:59 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: dawn53

The ridge over the western Atlantic strengthened and built south a bit yesterday, and pushed the system to the south. Now it's trying to ride underneath the Gulf ridge a bit, but it is forecast to weaken. Now, I am wondering why it's not beginning to level out... if for some reason it misses the weakness/troughiness, it could end up further west.


183 posted on 08/26/2005 8:30:40 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: blam

Have you seen this yet?


184 posted on 08/26/2005 8:30:46 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: dirtboy

Holy moley! Did she lose any strength over land at all?!


185 posted on 08/26/2005 8:31:30 AM PDT by kx9088
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To: dirtboy

I personally think it will hit at least cat4 at some point. I hope that doesn't occur at landfall.


186 posted on 08/26/2005 8:32:11 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: kx9088
Barely. And looks to be beginning a bomb-out phase.

Remember last year what happened to Charley when he was in the same area. Went from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 in a few hours and caught the forecasters completely off guard.

187 posted on 08/26/2005 8:32:57 AM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)
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To: nwctwx; dawn53
if for some reason it misses the weakness/troughiness, it could end up further west.

Should I feel some sense of relief that the Tampa Bay area is out of the woods?

188 posted on 08/26/2005 8:33:03 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT NOW INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.


189 posted on 08/26/2005 8:34:15 AM PDT by silentknight
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To: silentknight

Winds are now 100 mph!


190 posted on 08/26/2005 8:34:33 AM PDT by silentknight
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To: nwctwx

its coming from the wrong way, but for some reason I keep thinking opal with this thing...

its still relatively small so it could wind up quick too...


191 posted on 08/26/2005 8:34:45 AM PDT by MikefromOhio (It's called having class.....)
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To: dawn53

Have your winds started picking up? Getting darn breezy here--enough to make me wonder about the upcoming drive x 2 over the Skyway.


192 posted on 08/26/2005 8:35:33 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: silentknight
CAT 2 already!
193 posted on 08/26/2005 8:36:39 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: NautiNurse

Well, my parents have lived in Florida their whole lives.

My Dad is a 5th generation Floridian, making me a 6th generation Floridian and my kid a 7th generation.

Everytime we have a hurricane, they recount stories of hurricanes that went this way and that, totally ignoring predicted paths.

But I think we can count more on predictions because of sophisticated equipment...on the other hand Charley would prove that logic wrong.

My folks always say, "You'll know where a hurricane is going to come ashore when it comes ashore." I think that's pretty sound reasoning.

I'm not doing anything as far as prep, but I'll keep a watchful eye on the thing in case it decides to head north instead of west (don't forget the yellow line on the models, LOL.)


194 posted on 08/26/2005 8:37:14 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: Dog Gone

This has been posted before, but bears repeat: http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


195 posted on 08/26/2005 8:38:26 AM PDT by Rebelbase ("Run Hillary Run" bumper stickers. Liberals place on rear bumper, conservatives put on front bumper)
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To: NautiNurse
I just drove from Miami Lakes to the western edge of Aventura (basically across the northern part of Dade county. Plenty of tree branches down and traffic lights out. There are still plenty of people without power. My father-in-law in Coral Gables says there are lots of trees down there.

Well, I have now done the two things I needed to get done at work. I think I may take the return trip home and start picking up branches there.

196 posted on 08/26/2005 8:39:06 AM PDT by twin2
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To: Howlin
How adorable .. and already stuffing her hand into her mouth .. LOL. Praise God for a healthy, robust little baby. Happy day!!


197 posted on 08/26/2005 8:39:11 AM PDT by STARWISE (GITMO IS TOO GOOD FOR THESE TRAITORS -- SEND THEM ALL TO EGYPT FOR QUESTIONING.)
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To: dawn53

Katrina had wet feet all the way, everglades are saturated.


198 posted on 08/26/2005 8:39:26 AM PDT by lin
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To: dawn53
"You'll know where a hurricane is going to come ashore when it comes ashore." I think that's pretty sound reasoning.

LOL--and we're not in the "cone of uncertainty" at this moment...

199 posted on 08/26/2005 8:39:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

It's breezy down here, has been since early AM. You'll be heading down our way, LOL, the Skyway is okay, just get on the inside lane, the wind will be less apt to blow you around. (worst part of the trip will probably be around the Trop...isn't that the bumpiest stretch of interstate you've ever driven on?)

They close it if the winds are too high at the top, I think that's not until it's about 40 mph gusts. It'll be pretty today, the water will be choppy, but the sky is really blue.

Have a safe trip.


200 posted on 08/26/2005 8:40:45 AM PDT by dawn53
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