Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Someone needs to locate the hurricane magnet that aliens apparently buried in the Panhandle a couple of years ago...
highimpact---your mission...should you choose to accept it...
The ridge over the western Atlantic strengthened and built south a bit yesterday, and pushed the system to the south. Now it's trying to ride underneath the Gulf ridge a bit, but it is forecast to weaken. Now, I am wondering why it's not beginning to level out... if for some reason it misses the weakness/troughiness, it could end up further west.
Have you seen this yet?
Holy moley! Did she lose any strength over land at all?!
I personally think it will hit at least cat4 at some point. I hope that doesn't occur at landfall.
Remember last year what happened to Charley when he was in the same area. Went from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 in a few hours and caught the forecasters completely off guard.
Should I feel some sense of relief that the Tampa Bay area is out of the woods?
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005
...KATRINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT NOW INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.
Winds are now 100 mph!
its coming from the wrong way, but for some reason I keep thinking opal with this thing...
its still relatively small so it could wind up quick too...
Have your winds started picking up? Getting darn breezy here--enough to make me wonder about the upcoming drive x 2 over the Skyway.
Well, my parents have lived in Florida their whole lives.
My Dad is a 5th generation Floridian, making me a 6th generation Floridian and my kid a 7th generation.
Everytime we have a hurricane, they recount stories of hurricanes that went this way and that, totally ignoring predicted paths.
But I think we can count more on predictions because of sophisticated equipment...on the other hand Charley would prove that logic wrong.
My folks always say, "You'll know where a hurricane is going to come ashore when it comes ashore." I think that's pretty sound reasoning.
I'm not doing anything as far as prep, but I'll keep a watchful eye on the thing in case it decides to head north instead of west (don't forget the yellow line on the models, LOL.)
This has been posted before, but bears repeat: http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
Well, I have now done the two things I needed to get done at work. I think I may take the return trip home and start picking up branches there.
Katrina had wet feet all the way, everglades are saturated.
LOL--and we're not in the "cone of uncertainty" at this moment...
It's breezy down here, has been since early AM. You'll be heading down our way, LOL, the Skyway is okay, just get on the inside lane, the wind will be less apt to blow you around. (worst part of the trip will probably be around the Trop...isn't that the bumpiest stretch of interstate you've ever driven on?)
They close it if the winds are too high at the top, I think that's not until it's about 40 mph gusts. It'll be pretty today, the water will be choppy, but the sky is really blue.
Have a safe trip.
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