100 mph already. Damn....
Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Storm KATRINA: Observed By AF #304
Storm #12 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 81KT (93.2mph 150.0km/h) In NW Quadrant At 14:30:50 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 72.9KT (83.8mph 135.0km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 26, 2005 10:34:00 (Fri, 26 Aug 2005 14:34:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 25° 03' N 082° 13' W (25.1°N 82.2°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2875m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 45 KT (51.75MPH 83.3km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 031nm (35.65miles) From Center At Bearing 318°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 081KT (93.15mph 150.0km/h) From 014°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 013nm (14.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 306°
Minimum pressure: 971 mb (28.67in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN N
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 9nm (10.3 mi 16.7km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 12
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 26, 2005
recent data from an Air Force recon aircraft indicates Katrina's
central pressure is much lower...now at 971 mb. Maximum 700 mb
flight-level winds are 81 kt in the northwest quadrant...which
supports at least 70 kt surface winds. However...the aircraft has
not sampled the winds in the eastern semicircle where NOAA/Key West
Doppler radar velocity data indicates winds as high as 91 kt at
around 3000 ft...which would support a surface wind estimate of
about 75 kt. The initial intensity of 70 kt may turn out to be a
little low.
The initial motion estimate is 265/6. Radar data indicates Katrina
has continued to move south of due west during the past 6 hours.
Most of the NHC model guidance indicates the track should flatten
out in a more westward direction during the next 12 hours as the
influence of an inverted trough over the Caribbean Sea decreases.
The mid-level subtropical ridge to the north and northwest of
Katrina is forecast by the all global and regional models to
gradually weaken through the forecast period as a strong shortwave
trough over the central U.S. Digs southeastward toward the northern
Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States. The timing of the
erosion of the ridge and an induced northward motion of Katrina is
the main difference between the models...which has resulted in a
large spread after 48 hours. The NOGAPS and GFDN models have made a
large jump to the west over Louisiana...whereas the majority of the
NHC models take Katrina inland over the northeast Gulf Coast. The
official forecast track remains in the right portion of the model
guidance envelope.
Strengthening to a major hurricane is expected. In fact...a recent
dropsonde report received from the reconnaissance aircraft
indicates maximum winds are now up to 80 kt. So...a special
advisory will be issued shortly to update the current and forecast
intensities.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 26/1500z 25.1n 82.2w 70 kt
12hr VT 27/0000z 25.2n 83.1w 75 kt
24hr VT 27/1200z 25.5n 84.3w 80 kt
36hr VT 28/0000z 26.2n 85.2w 85 kt
48hr VT 28/1200z 27.1n 85.9w 90 kt
72hr VT 29/1200z 29.5n 86.3w 100 kt
96hr VT 30/1200z 34.5n 83.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 31/1200z 40.5n 77.0w 25 kt...dissipating inland
btw...Irene gave us (Long Island) four days of steady pulsing ground swell. The best waves of the summer, not too big but punchy.
Oh, and bad news here, it looks like a lot of the MTV party tents blew down. Real shame.
NOT.
Glad to hear you faired well. We still have a couple of freepers down in that area to check in. They are probably waiting for their power to come back on.
debg (Miami)
IYAAYAS (Ft. Lauderdale)
Sam Cree (South of Miami)
rodguy911 (Keys)
Starting to get that creepy feeling here...
Glad to assist--thanks for your kind words. :o)
Radar data indicates Katrina has continued to move south of due west during the past 6 hours. Most of the NHC model guidance indicates the track should flatten out in a more westward direction during the next 12 hours
What I can't figure out is how come it made it across Florida in seemingly less time than expected. The forward speed didn't change, but I guess because it headed south, the diameter of the state is smaller than if it had gone straight across as expected.
Thank you very much for the list of So FL Freepers. We will continue to pray for their safety. Look forward to each of them checking in soon.
Just got telephone report from Marathon, they were pounded all night, still getting it. My place--open water Atlantic side, lost a few shingles.
Does anybody remember Weaver the Weatherman from Miami on the CBS local station in the 50's? The pilots that flew planes into the eye...the seeding experiments...I swear there were better forcasts and coverage then.
I just talked to my dad. He's a Red Cross volunteer and spent 3 weeks in Eastern NC when Isabel hit in 2003.
The Red Cross just called him and told him to pack his bags and be on standby. His group pre-positions in anticipation of disaster so I guess they're thinking Katrina is going to get a real nasty attitude by the time it gets to the panhandle.
Should be cat 2 shortly. Not much will stop her from hitting cat3-4 IMO. Hopefully she hits in a weakening phase.
How about 1.5 days earlier than predicted.
sw
I haven't been to bed at all!
Well, I have, but not for long...lol.
Exciting night huh?
She's beautiful, Howlin.
The SSTs in the NE Gulf are like bath water. And no shear in sight. I think Katrina's gonna bomb out like Opal did, and all we can do is hope it bombs out and then weakens before it hits land.
Wasn't it supposed to be turning north by now?
100 mph already. Damn....
Guess I better get into gear to return last night's rental car to the Tampa airport, where I left my vehicle.
OH man!
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