Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Sure looks like she is taking a northern jog, as you said earlier, a few degrees north now makes a lot of difference later.
For purely selfish reasons I'd like to see it go more South and perhaps get picked up in the moisture flow coming into the SouthWestern states.. We REALLY need rain.
Will it peter out in the Mountains of Mexico or is there a chance some of this momentum could make it into the Gulf of California???? I know more questions than answers.
Yeah I just heard Steve Lyons mention that chunk that broke off and is hovering over Merida.
My Mom just called. Her step granddaughter is stuck in Cancun. She waited just a little bit too long to try to leave.
Most of the models seem to indicate that some moisture from Emily should at least enhance your possibilities of storminess in about 5-6 days. If the storm does go into Mexico, and continue west... she will be forced across quite mountainous terrain, so the possibility of reformating off Baja would be very slim.
I think your best shot would be if she comes in further north, as the high pressure over the Rockies will undoubtedly keep her on a westerly track after landfall for some time.
I have heard the stories of the lack of Monsoon thus far in that region, and the heat... well, I don't miss that part of the desert SW. ;-)
What happens when she clears the shear, on the opposite side of the peninsula? Does that open up a more northerly track?
...Dangerous Hurricane Emily approaching the northeast Yucatan Peninsula...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Interests in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Emily. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the southern Texas coast and the northeast coast of Mexico early Monday.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 19.9 north... longitude 86.5 west or about 50 miles... 80 km... south-southeast of Cozumel Mexico and about 230 miles... 370 km...east-southeast of Progreso Mexico.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph ...30 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track...the center will be near the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in a few hours and then move across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Emily is expected to emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No significant change in strength is likely before landfall. Some weakening will occur as Emily moves over northern Yucatan on Monday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 955 mb...28.20 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in Mexico.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over western Cuba.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...19.9 N... 86.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 955 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
A couple from down the street are stuck there too. Hope all those extending their vacations really enjoy the tropics.
Air Force recon reported a peak 700 mb flight level wind of 134 kt in the northeast quadrant at 0018z. Normally this would correspond to a surface wind estimate of about 120 kt. However...the central pressure has been rising steadily and is now up to 955 mb. Therefore it is estimated that the intensity is just a little lower at this time...115 kt. This is still category four strength...and Emily remains a formidable hurricane. Radar imagery from Cancun shows the eyewall structure fluctuating...but with no definitive indications of an eyewall replacement. Not much change in intensity is likely before landfall in a few hours. A weak upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche may have been imparting some southwesterly shear over Emily. Global models suggest that this upper low will move west-southwestward and weaken within 12-24 hours....creating an upper-tropospheric environment that appears to be conducive to strengthening. Therefore...once the center moves back over the waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico... re-intensification is predicted. Just how much Emily restrengthens is partly dependent on the extent that the inner core is disrupted after passing over northern Yucatan.
Initial motion...295/16...is about the same as before. The track forecast reasoning is also basically unchanged. The GFS model indicates that a very weak shortwave trough may cause a slight erosion in the mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf Coast in about 24 hours...but the ridge is likely to restrengthen thereafter. The consensus of the dynamical track models has shifted ever so slightly to the south for this package...with the GFS showing the southernmost track. Interestingly...that model has had the lowest 72 hr track error of all the guidance for Emily...thus far. The official forecast is very close to the previous one and is now a little to the north of the consensus.
A Hurricane Watch will probably be issued for a portion of the western Gulf of Mexico coast...including the southern Texas coast...early on Monday.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0300z 19.9n 86.5w 115 kt 12hr VT 18/1200z 21.0n 88.9w 90 kt...inland 24hr VT 19/0000z 22.3n 91.7w 95 kt 36hr VT 19/1200z 23.3n 94.4w 100 kt 48hr VT 20/0000z 24.1n 96.8w 105 kt 72hr VT 21/0000z 25.0n 102.0w 30 kt...inland 96hr VT 22/0000z...dissipated
At some point she will bump into the ridge and the track will start to flatten out to the west, for a time at least. The question after that becomes the western weakness in the ridge (where it doesn't fully connect to the Rockies ridge). We also have a shortwave trough coming into the NW U.S. right now, that could aid in bumping her north for a time before landfall. Currently, the weakness is enough to allow her to glide into S. TX, but most models have forecasted it to fill in... the trend today was north, still waiting on some of tonights models.
Shear should be relatively light in the GOM, and there is a large area of 30C+ water she will have to cross on her way into N Mexico/S Texas. Depending on how much she weakens crossing the Yucatan, I would think she could get back to cat 4 again at some point in the GOM.
What I noticed, from your link, was there were no lines between the YP and the lower Texas coast. I know that's a lot of pull north, but with nothing in the way, it's a lot easier.
If the weakness in the ridge doesn't fill in, is it still possible to see it come in around Brownsville and gradually curve to the north then northeast, say an Austin, Dallas, Arkansas track?
The NAM is north tonight... not the best hurricane model, but quite good in this range in general.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p06_054m.gif
There actually aren't any globals with the storm or its remnants getting north of the border at any point at the moment. Places like Dallas look like they won't get so much as a drop from this.
Yeah, no rain very far north with this one... the ridge is there, the only question is if there is enough softness in the S. TX region to allow it to come just north of the border. If this still does hit TX, it won't be much further north than Brownsville.
How long you think before she's in the GOM?
They say the direction now is 295/16 (wnw).
Is there a link that shows the direction of those numbers? I don't have a clue what search words to use or I'd google it. Thanks.
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