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Hurricane Emily (Live Thread, Part II)
NHC-NOAA ^ | 16 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image

Western Caribbean Bouy Data

Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images

Grand Cayman Weather

Cozumel Weather

Cancun Weather

Cancun Radar Very Slow Load

Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions



Some more resources:

Hurricane City

Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)

Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband

Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info

Another colorful IR Satellite loop


The Saffir-Simpson Scale. Source: Hurricane Categories
Category Wind Speed Barometric
Pressure
Storm Surge Damage Potential
1
(weak)
75 - 95 mph
65 - 82 kts
33 - 42 m/s
> 28.94 in. Hg
> 980.0 mb
> 97.7 kPa
4.0 - 5.0 ft.
1.2 - 1.5 m
minimal damage to vegetation
2
(moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
43 - 49 m/s
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg
965.1 - 979.7 mb
96.2 - 97.7 kPa
6.0 - 8.0 ft.
1.8 - 2.4 m
moderate damage to houses
3
(strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 113 kts
50 - 58 m/s
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg
945.1 - 964.8 mb
96.2 - 97.7 kPa
9.0 - 12.0 ft.
2.7 - 3.7 m
extensive damage to small buildings
4
(very strong)
131 - 155 mph
114 - 135 kts
59 - 69 m/s
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg
920.1 - 944.8 mb
91.7 - 94.2 kPa
13.0 - 18.0 ft.
3.9 - 5.5 m
extreme structural damage
5
(devastating)
> 155 mph
> 135 kts
> 70 m/s
< 27.17 in Hg
< 920.1 mb
< 91.7 kPa
> 18.0 ft
> 5.5 m
catastrophic building failures possible


Hurricane Emily Live Thread, Part I


TOPICS: Mexico; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; tropical; weather
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To: nwctwx

Sure looks like she is taking a northern jog, as you said earlier, a few degrees north now makes a lot of difference later.


461 posted on 07/17/2005 7:19:17 PM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: eastforker
She does look to be coming in further north than most predicted... Too early to say for sure what it means down the road, but I notice the weakness on the left side of the ridge remains, and there is no discernible flattening of the track yet.
462 posted on 07/17/2005 7:24:41 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx
Weather channel just said it's going to hit in a couple of hours and the eye is aimed at Cozumel and Cancun.

For purely selfish reasons I'd like to see it go more South and perhaps get picked up in the moisture flow coming into the SouthWestern states.. We REALLY need rain.

Will it peter out in the Mountains of Mexico or is there a chance some of this momentum could make it into the Gulf of California???? I know more questions than answers.

463 posted on 07/17/2005 7:24:54 PM PDT by Arizona Carolyn
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To: nwctwx

Yeah I just heard Steve Lyons mention that chunk that broke off and is hovering over Merida.


464 posted on 07/17/2005 7:25:56 PM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: Arizona Carolyn

My Mom just called. Her step granddaughter is stuck in Cancun. She waited just a little bit too long to try to leave.


465 posted on 07/17/2005 7:27:14 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: Arizona Carolyn

Most of the models seem to indicate that some moisture from Emily should at least enhance your possibilities of storminess in about 5-6 days. If the storm does go into Mexico, and continue west... she will be forced across quite mountainous terrain, so the possibility of reformating off Baja would be very slim.

I think your best shot would be if she comes in further north, as the high pressure over the Rockies will undoubtedly keep her on a westerly track after landfall for some time.

I have heard the stories of the lack of Monsoon thus far in that region, and the heat... well, I don't miss that part of the desert SW. ;-)


466 posted on 07/17/2005 7:33:23 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: All
Here is a cropped version of the Cancun radar from 30 min ago:


467 posted on 07/17/2005 7:36:21 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

What happens when she clears the shear, on the opposite side of the peninsula? Does that open up a more northerly track?


468 posted on 07/17/2005 7:49:35 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: nwctwx
Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 29

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 17, 2005

...Dangerous Hurricane Emily approaching the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from
Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to
Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres.  A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from
Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
Interests in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor
the progress of Emily.  A Hurricane Watch will likely be required
for portions of the southern Texas coast and the northeast coast of
Mexico early Monday.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 19.9 north... longitude 86.5 west or about 50
miles... 80 km... south-southeast of Cozumel Mexico and about 230
miles... 370 km...east-southeast of Progreso Mexico.

Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours.  On this track...the center will be near the
northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in a few hours and then
move across the northern Yucatan Peninsula.  Emily is expected to
emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Monday. 

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Emily is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  No significant change in strength is likely before
landfall.  Some weakening will occur as Emily moves over northern
Yucatan on Monday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.

 
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum
central pressure of  955 mb...28.20 inches.

 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 8 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Mexico.  

Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over western Cuba.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...19.9 N... 86.5 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 955 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

 

469 posted on 07/17/2005 7:50:01 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: CindyDawg

A couple from down the street are stuck there too. Hope all those extending their vacations really enjoy the tropics.


470 posted on 07/17/2005 7:52:03 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: SouthTexas
Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 29

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 17, 2005

Air Force recon reported a peak 700 mb flight level wind of 134 kt
in the northeast quadrant at 0018z.  Normally this would correspond
to a surface wind estimate of about 120 kt.  However...the central
pressure has been rising steadily and is now up to 955 mb. 
Therefore it is estimated that the intensity is just a little lower
at this time...115 kt.  This is still category four strength...and
Emily remains a formidable hurricane.  Radar imagery from Cancun
shows the eyewall structure  fluctuating...but with no definitive
indications of an eyewall replacement.  Not much change in
intensity is likely before landfall in a few hours.  A weak
upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche may have been imparting
some southwesterly shear over Emily.  Global models suggest that
this upper low will move west-southwestward and weaken within 12-24
hours....creating an upper-tropospheric environment that appears to
be conducive to strengthening.  Therefore...once the center moves
back over the waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico...
re-intensification is predicted.  Just how much Emily restrengthens
is partly dependent on the extent that the inner core is disrupted
after passing over northern Yucatan.  

Initial motion...295/16...is about the same as before.  The track
forecast reasoning is also basically unchanged.  The GFS model
indicates that a very weak shortwave trough may cause a slight
erosion in the mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf Coast in
about 24 hours...but the ridge is likely to restrengthen
thereafter.  The consensus of the dynamical track models has
shifted ever so slightly to the south for this package...with the
GFS showing the southernmost track.  Interestingly...that model has
had the lowest 72 hr track error of all the guidance for
Emily...thus far.  The official forecast is very close to the
previous one and is now a little to the north of the consensus.

A Hurricane Watch will probably be issued for a portion of the
western Gulf of Mexico coast...including the southern Texas
coast...early on Monday.

Forecaster Pasch

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      18/0300z 19.9n  86.5w   115 kt
 12hr VT     18/1200z 21.0n  88.9w    90 kt...inland
 24hr VT     19/0000z 22.3n  91.7w    95 kt
 36hr VT     19/1200z 23.3n  94.4w   100 kt
 48hr VT     20/0000z 24.1n  96.8w   105 kt
 72hr VT     21/0000z 25.0n 102.0w    30 kt...inland
 96hr VT     22/0000z...dissipated

471 posted on 07/17/2005 7:55:38 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: SouthTexas

At some point she will bump into the ridge and the track will start to flatten out to the west, for a time at least. The question after that becomes the western weakness in the ridge (where it doesn't fully connect to the Rockies ridge). We also have a shortwave trough coming into the NW U.S. right now, that could aid in bumping her north for a time before landfall. Currently, the weakness is enough to allow her to glide into S. TX, but most models have forecasted it to fill in... the trend today was north, still waiting on some of tonights models.

Shear should be relatively light in the GOM, and there is a large area of 30C+ water she will have to cross on her way into N Mexico/S Texas. Depending on how much she weakens crossing the Yucatan, I would think she could get back to cat 4 again at some point in the GOM.


472 posted on 07/17/2005 7:55:59 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx
Thanks. The discussion on the latest report says the ridge is weakening.

What I noticed, from your link, was there were no lines between the YP and the lower Texas coast. I know that's a lot of pull north, but with nothing in the way, it's a lot easier.

473 posted on 07/17/2005 8:01:35 PM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: nwctwx

If the weakness in the ridge doesn't fill in, is it still possible to see it come in around Brownsville and gradually curve to the north then northeast, say an Austin, Dallas, Arkansas track?


474 posted on 07/17/2005 8:01:36 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: SouthTexas

The NAM is north tonight... not the best hurricane model, but quite good in this range in general.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p06_054m.gif


475 posted on 07/17/2005 8:01:37 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx
Cancun radar update:


476 posted on 07/17/2005 8:07:18 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Diddle E. Squat
If the weakness in the ridge doesn't fill in, is it still possible to see it come in around Brownsville and gradually curve to the north then northeast, say an Austin, Dallas, Arkansas track?

There actually aren't any globals with the storm or its remnants getting north of the border at any point at the moment. Places like Dallas look like they won't get so much as a drop from this.

477 posted on 07/17/2005 8:08:26 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist; Diddle E. Squat

Yeah, no rain very far north with this one... the ridge is there, the only question is if there is enough softness in the S. TX region to allow it to come just north of the border. If this still does hit TX, it won't be much further north than Brownsville.


478 posted on 07/17/2005 8:09:51 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

How long you think before she's in the GOM?


479 posted on 07/17/2005 8:13:10 PM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: nwctwx

They say the direction now is 295/16 (wnw).

Is there a link that shows the direction of those numbers? I don't have a clue what search words to use or I'd google it. Thanks.


480 posted on 07/17/2005 8:18:45 PM PDT by Miztiki (Pearland, TX (just southeast of Houston))
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