Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 29
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 17, 2005
...Dangerous Hurricane Emily approaching the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from
Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to
Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from
Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Interests in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor
the progress of Emily. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required
for portions of the southern Texas coast and the northeast coast of
Mexico early Monday.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 19.9 north... longitude 86.5 west or about 50
miles... 80 km... south-southeast of Cozumel Mexico and about 230
miles... 370 km...east-southeast of Progreso Mexico.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track...the center will be near the
northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in a few hours and then
move across the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Emily is expected to
emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. No significant change in strength is likely before
landfall. Some weakening will occur as Emily moves over northern
Yucatan on Monday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum
central pressure of 955 mb...28.20 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 8 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Mexico.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over western Cuba.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...19.9 N... 86.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 955 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
