Posted on 05/19/2005 6:15:35 AM PDT by Clive
Besides Paul Martin and the Liberals, who benefits most from Belinda Stronach's defection from the Conservatives to the Liberals?
Certainly not the Bloc Quebecois. Quebec separatists would prefer to have an election sooner rather than later while the outrage over the confessions of criminality coming out of the Gomery commission remain fresh in the minds of Quebecers.
Since Stronach's leap into the lap of Liberaldom makes the chances of the minority Liberal government falling tonight much less likely, the Bloc is none too pleased.
Not Stephen Harper either for the same reasons and more. Despite his claims that he was feeling some "relief" over Stronach jumping ship, her traitorous move can't be fun for him.
The rest of the country might not be able to guess, but out here in Alberta there was some clear cheering going on.
Yes, some Albertans say the Belinda bombshell dropped on Tuesday is a bonanza for separatism in Alberta.
"This is very good news for us," Bruce Hutton, interim leader of the Separation Party of Alberta said yesterday.
"For a federalist like you," he said to me, "what Belinda did (Tuesday) is a tragedy, it's a true tragedy," acknowledged Hutton, 58, a former RCMP officer and current small business owner.
"But for an Alberta separatist it's the next best thing to Ontario electing another federal Liberal government next time," he said.
"We just got a bonus card delivered by Belinda Stronach," said Hutton, who added hits on the party's website (www.separationalberta.com) have spiked lately and the calls coming into the office have jumped as well, thanks to AdScam and now Stronach's deception.
For a party that is not yet one year old and has little money, membership in the Alberta Separation Party is already up to about 1,000.
The main reason Stronach gave for leaving the party she once fought to lead and helped give birth to just one year ago is she's concerned "that lining up with the Bloc is not good for Canada to defeat this budget and to trigger an election."
In other words, she is using the fear of growing separatist sentiment in Quebec -- which has been caused by Liberal corruption -- as the cloak of convenience needed to mask her blind ambition for power.
It is nothing short of astonishing to me that not one of the political pundits I have read or heard has mentioned the obvious. Separation in Quebec is not possible even if the Bloc wins every seat in that province.
The Bloc is a federal party and referendums on separation can only come about if a provincial separatist party wins the next provincial election.
Currently, the premier of Quebec is Liberal Leader Jean Charest, who won 76 of the 125 seats in the Quebec legislature during the last election which was held on April 14, 2003.
In other words, Charest could wait until 2008 to hold the next provincial election, which as the last couple of weeks in Ottawa proves, is an eternity in politics.
What's more, Quebecers are no fools. They know that they are net beneficiaries of federalism. Even when really obscure and unclear questions are asked in that province, Quebecers have three times rejected "sovereignty association."
Stronach -- who has lived most of her life in a mansion in Ontario -- also complained that Harper doesn't understand the complexities of this country, even though he was born in Toronto, grew up there until he was 19, has family ties to the Maritimes and has lived in Alberta and Ottawa.
Hutton contends that most Canadians don't understand Alberta at all and how once passionate lovers of this country -- like him -- can grow so frustrated and concerned for the future of their children that they believe separation is the only option.
So, as separatist sentiment grows ever stronger in Alberta, it's Hutton's hope -- along with thousands of other increasingly bold separatist Albertans -- that the Stronachs of the world will go right on ignoring it until it's too late.
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I'm going to repeat what I said in an earlier thread here. An election WILL be called this spring or summer. Voter apathy will favour the Conservatives strongly. The Liberals will bleed from the left and right, they'll lose most if not all of Quebec to the Bloc. The Conservatives will hold a strong minority or weak majority government. The Bloc will be the opposition, and the NDP will pick up seats, the Green party may even make party status federally. The Liberals are finished.
I thought the opposition had a margin of more than two against the government. If so, one switch would not have changed the outcome. Can anyone put numbers on this equation?
Congressman Billybob
Someone may be able to give you more details but the switch is only part of the dynamic. There are independents who I believe supported the non-confidence votes last week but who are now wavering towards supporting the budget vote which would keep the Liberals in power. The Opposition needs to defeat at least one of the two budget votes tonight to force a "binding" non-confidence vote which even our media and PM couldn't ignore. If it ends up a tie, the Speaker votes and he is a Liberal so they win.
CB,
The margins in parliament if all members vote are as follows:
152 - Conservatives/Bloc Quebecois
152 - Liberals/NDP
2 - Independants
If the independants split, the speaker (Liberal appointee) will break the tie in favour of the government. So whoever wants to win has to woo BOTH independants. Luckily the Libs can't pull a Floriduh here and ask for a recount :D.
Now because of the Carolyn Parish effect (she is a registered Independant, but votes with the Liberals on everything anyway), if her appendicitis turns out to be true, then the conservatives only need one of the independants, which they will probably get. In any case, the minority government will not stand for more than 12 more months...and luckily very little of it will consist of governing because of the minority status of the government.
I'll be watching this very carefully all day.
Thanks for the breakdown. I've been wondering about this all week and the Canadian papers/columnists reports all assume that the voting strength is known to everyone.
It was on the front page of the local paper yesterday, but the national papers are presumptuous like that. There is also some "pairing" going on where opposition MPs are paired with government MPs so that medical absences will not affect the outcome of the vote.
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